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Recent studies have drawn special attention to the significant dependencies between flood drivers and the occurrence of compound flood events in coastal areas. This study investigates compound flooding from tides, river discharge (Q) and specifically waves using a hydrodynamic model at Breede Estuary, South Africa. We quantify vertical and horizontal differences in flood characteristics caused by driver interaction, and assess the contribution of waves. Therefore, we compare flood characteristics resulting from compound flood scenarios to those in which single drivers are omitted. We find that flood characteristics are more sensitive to Q than to waves, particularly when the latter only coincide with high spring tides. When interacting with Q, however, the contribution of waves is high, causing 10–12 % larger flood extents and 45–85 cm higher water depths, as waves caused backwater effects and raised water levels inside the lower reaches of the estuary. With higher wave intensity, the first flooding began up to 12 hours earlier. Our findings provide insights on compound flooding in terms of flood magnitude and timing at a South African estuary and demonstrate the need to account for the effects of compound events, including waves, in future flood impact assessments of open South African estuaries.
Sunna Kupfer; Sara Santamaria-Aguilar; Lara van Niekerk; Melanie Lück-Vogel; Athanasios Vafeidis. Investigating the interaction of waves and river discharge during compound flooding at Breede Estuary, South Africa. 2021, 2021, 1 -27.
AMA StyleSunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, Athanasios Vafeidis. Investigating the interaction of waves and river discharge during compound flooding at Breede Estuary, South Africa. . 2021; 2021 ():1-27.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSunna Kupfer; Sara Santamaria-Aguilar; Lara van Niekerk; Melanie Lück-Vogel; Athanasios Vafeidis. 2021. "Investigating the interaction of waves and river discharge during compound flooding at Breede Estuary, South Africa." 2021, no. : 1-27.
This paper provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3-5.8), digital elevation data (factors 1.2-3.8), ice sheet models (factor 1.6-3.8) and greenhouse gas emissions (factors 1.6-2.0). Local uncertainties that stand out but have not been quantified globally, relate to depth-damage functions, defense failure mechanisms, surge and wave heights in areas affected by tropical cyclones (in particular for large return periods), as well as nearshore interactions between mean sea-levels, storm surges, tides and waves. Advancing the state-of-the-art requires analyzing and reporting more comprehensively on underlying uncertainties, including those in data, methods and adaptation scenarios. Epistemic uncertainties in digital elevation, coastal protection levels and depth-damage functions would be best reduced through open community-based efforts, in which many scholars work together in collecting and validating these data.
J. Hinkel; L. Feyen; M. Hemer; G. Le Cozannet; D. Lincke; M. Marcos; L. Mentaschi; J. L. Merkens; H. de Moel; S. Muis; R. J. Nicholls; A. T. Vafeidis; R. S. W. van de Wal; M. I. Vousdoukas; T. Wahl; P. J. Ward; C. Wolff. Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk. Earth's Future 2021, 9, 1 .
AMA StyleJ. Hinkel, L. Feyen, M. Hemer, G. Le Cozannet, D. Lincke, M. Marcos, L. Mentaschi, J. L. Merkens, H. de Moel, S. Muis, R. J. Nicholls, A. T. Vafeidis, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. I. Vousdoukas, T. Wahl, P. J. Ward, C. Wolff. Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk. Earth's Future. 2021; 9 (7):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJ. Hinkel; L. Feyen; M. Hemer; G. Le Cozannet; D. Lincke; M. Marcos; L. Mentaschi; J. L. Merkens; H. de Moel; S. Muis; R. J. Nicholls; A. T. Vafeidis; R. S. W. van de Wal; M. I. Vousdoukas; T. Wahl; P. J. Ward; C. Wolff. 2021. "Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk." Earth's Future 9, no. 7: 1.
Carbon sequestration and storage in mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows is an essential coastal ‘blue carbon’ ecosystem service for climate change mitigation. Here we offer a comprehensive, global and spatially explicit economic assessment of carbon sequestration and storage in three coastal ecosystem types at the global and national levels. We propose a new approach based on the country-specific social cost of carbon that allows us to calculate each country’s contribution to, and redistribution of, global blue carbon wealth. Globally, coastal ecosystems contribute a mean ± s.e.m. of US$190.67 ± 30 bn yr−1 to blue carbon wealth. The three countries generating the largest positive net blue wealth contribution for other countries are Australia, Indonesia and Cuba, with Australia alone generating a positive net benefit of US$22.8 ± 3.8 bn yr− 1 for the rest of the world through coastal ecosystem carbon sequestration and storage in its territory.
Christine Bertram; Martin Quaas; Thorsten B. H. Reusch; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Claudia Wolff; Wilfried Rickels. The blue carbon wealth of nations. Nature Climate Change 2021, 11, 704 -709.
AMA StyleChristine Bertram, Martin Quaas, Thorsten B. H. Reusch, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Claudia Wolff, Wilfried Rickels. The blue carbon wealth of nations. Nature Climate Change. 2021; 11 (8):704-709.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristine Bertram; Martin Quaas; Thorsten B. H. Reusch; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Claudia Wolff; Wilfried Rickels. 2021. "The blue carbon wealth of nations." Nature Climate Change 11, no. 8: 704-709.
Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt.
Sally Brown; Katie Jenkins; Philip Goodwin; Daniel Lincke; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Richard S. J. Tol; Rhosanna Jenkins; Rachel Warren; Robert J. Nicholls; Svetlana Jevrejeva; Agustin Sanchez Arcilla; Ivan D. Haigh. Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Climatic Change 2021, 167, 1 .
AMA StyleSally Brown, Katie Jenkins, Philip Goodwin, Daniel Lincke, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Richard S. J. Tol, Rhosanna Jenkins, Rachel Warren, Robert J. Nicholls, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Agustin Sanchez Arcilla, Ivan D. Haigh. Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Climatic Change. 2021; 167 (1-2):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSally Brown; Katie Jenkins; Philip Goodwin; Daniel Lincke; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Richard S. J. Tol; Rhosanna Jenkins; Rachel Warren; Robert J. Nicholls; Svetlana Jevrejeva; Agustin Sanchez Arcilla; Ivan D. Haigh. 2021. "Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C." Climatic Change 167, no. 1-2: 1.
Lena Reimann; Bryan Jones; Theodore Nikoletopoulos; Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis. Accounting for internal migration in spatial population projections – A gravity-based modeling approach using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleLena Reimann, Bryan Jones, Theodore Nikoletopoulos, Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis. Accounting for internal migration in spatial population projections – A gravity-based modeling approach using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLena Reimann; Bryan Jones; Theodore Nikoletopoulos; Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis. 2021. "Accounting for internal migration in spatial population projections – A gravity-based modeling approach using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters , no. : 1.
Robert J. Nicholls; Daniel Lincke; Jochen Hinkel; Sally Brown; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Benoit Meyssignac; Susan E. Hanson; Jan-Ludolf Merkens; Jiayi Fang. Author Correction: A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. Nature Climate Change 2021, 1 -1.
AMA StyleRobert J. Nicholls, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel, Sally Brown, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Benoit Meyssignac, Susan E. Hanson, Jan-Ludolf Merkens, Jiayi Fang. Author Correction: A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. Nature Climate Change. 2021; ():1-1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert J. Nicholls; Daniel Lincke; Jochen Hinkel; Sally Brown; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Benoit Meyssignac; Susan E. Hanson; Jan-Ludolf Merkens; Jiayi Fang. 2021. "Author Correction: A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure." Nature Climate Change , no. : 1-1.
Story maps offer the possibility to visualise scientific information and climate data in an accessible format and, as web-based tools, reach a large audience. However, the use of story maps in the context of climate services has not yet been widely explored or implemented. In this study we present a story map for communicating the potential impacts of flooding due to sea-level rise for the city of Flensburg, situated at the German Baltic Sea coast. The map is developed in the form of a web-based tool and includes background information on sea-level rise and coastal flooding as well as on coastal adaptation measures; interactive maps with information on city landmarks; and maps of future flooding scenarios based on numerical modelling. To increase the usability of the climate service we have applied a co-production approach and collaborated with the general public to identify user needs in an iterative process. Our study highlights the user needs for detailed visualisation of potential flooding due to sea-level rise as well as for further information on adaptation measures. As a climate service, our story map serves as a starting point for raising awareness among the general public and for initiating action for adaptation to reduce vulnerability to coastal flooding in Flensburg.
Bente Vollstedt; Jana Koerth; Maureen Tsakiris; Nora Nieskens; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Co-production of climate services: A story map for future coastal flooding for the city of Flensburg. Climate Services 2021, 22, 100225 .
AMA StyleBente Vollstedt, Jana Koerth, Maureen Tsakiris, Nora Nieskens, Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Co-production of climate services: A story map for future coastal flooding for the city of Flensburg. Climate Services. 2021; 22 ():100225.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBente Vollstedt; Jana Koerth; Maureen Tsakiris; Nora Nieskens; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. 2021. "Co-production of climate services: A story map for future coastal flooding for the city of Flensburg." Climate Services 22, no. : 100225.
Global scale assessments of coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are associated with a wide range of uncertainties, including those in future projections of socioeconomic development (shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios), of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCP scenarios), and of sea-level rise at regional scale (RSLR), as well as structural uncertainties related to the modelling of extreme sea levels, data on exposed population and assets, and the costs of flood damages, etc. This raises the following questions: which sources of uncertainty need to be considered in such assessments and what is the relative importance of each source of uncertainty in the final results? Using the coastal flood module of the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework, we extensively explore the impact of scenario, data and model uncertainties in a global manner, i.e., by considering a large number (>2000) of simulation results. The influence of the uncertainties on the two risk metrics of expected annual damage (EAD), and adaptation costs (AC) related to coastal protection is assessed at global scale by combining variance-based sensitivity indices with a regression-based machine learning technique. On this basis, we show that the research priorities in terms of future data/knowledge acquisition to reduce uncertainty on EAD and AC differ depending on the considered time horizon. In the short term (before 2040), EAD uncertainty could be significantly decreased by 25 and 75% if the uncertainty of the translation of physical damage into costs and of the modelling of extreme sea levels could respectively be reduced. For AC, it is RSLR that primarily drives short-term uncertainty (with a contribution ~50%). In the longer term (>2050), uncertainty in EAD could be largely reduced by 75% if the SSP scenario could be unambiguously identified. For AC, it is the RCP selection that helps reducing uncertainty (up to 90% by the end of the century). Altogether, the uncertainty in future human activities (SSP and RCP) are the dominant source of the uncertainty in future coastal flood risk.
Jeremy Rohmer; Daniel Lincke; Jochen Hinkel; Gonéri Le Cozannet; Erwin Lambert; Athanasios Vafeidis. Unravelling the Importance of Uncertainties in Global-Scale Coastal Flood Risk Assessments under Sea Level Rise. Water 2021, 13, 774 .
AMA StyleJeremy Rohmer, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel, Gonéri Le Cozannet, Erwin Lambert, Athanasios Vafeidis. Unravelling the Importance of Uncertainties in Global-Scale Coastal Flood Risk Assessments under Sea Level Rise. Water. 2021; 13 (6):774.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJeremy Rohmer; Daniel Lincke; Jochen Hinkel; Gonéri Le Cozannet; Erwin Lambert; Athanasios Vafeidis. 2021. "Unravelling the Importance of Uncertainties in Global-Scale Coastal Flood Risk Assessments under Sea Level Rise." Water 13, no. 6: 774.
Climate-induced sea-level rise and vertical land movements, including natural and human-induced subsidence in sedimentary coastal lowlands, combine to change relative sea levels around the world’s coasts. Although this affects local rates of sea-level rise, assessments of the coastal impacts of subsidence are lacking on a global scale. Here, we quantify global-mean relative sea-level rise to be 2.5 mm yr−1 over the past two decades. However, as coastal inhabitants are preferentially located in subsiding locations, they experience an average relative sea-level rise up to four times faster at 7.8 to 9.9 mm yr−1. These results indicate that the impacts and adaptation needs are much higher than reported global sea-level rise measurements suggest. In particular, human-induced subsidence in and surrounding coastal cities can be rapidly reduced with appropriate policy for groundwater utilization and drainage. Such policy would offer substantial and rapid benefits to reduce growth of coastal flood exposure due to relative sea-level rise. Land subsidence and uplift influence the rate of sea-level rise. Most coastal populations live in subsiding areas and experience average rates of relative sea-level rise three to four times faster than due to climate change alone, indicating the need for policy to address subsidence.
Robert J. Nicholls; Daniel Lincke; Jochen Hinkel; Sally Brown; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Benoit Meyssignac; Susan E. Hanson; Jan-Ludolf Merkens; Jiayi Fang. A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. Nature Climate Change 2021, 11, 338 -342.
AMA StyleRobert J. Nicholls, Daniel Lincke, Jochen Hinkel, Sally Brown, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Benoit Meyssignac, Susan E. Hanson, Jan-Ludolf Merkens, Jiayi Fang. A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. Nature Climate Change. 2021; 11 (4):338-342.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert J. Nicholls; Daniel Lincke; Jochen Hinkel; Sally Brown; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Benoit Meyssignac; Susan E. Hanson; Jan-Ludolf Merkens; Jiayi Fang. 2021. "A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure." Nature Climate Change 11, no. 4: 338-342.
Climate-induced sea-level rise and vertical land movements, including natural and human-induced subsidence in sedimentary coastal lowlands, combine to change relative sea levels around the world's coast. Global-average coastal relative sea-level rise was 2.5 mm/yr over the last two decades. However, as coastal inhabitants are preferentially located in subsiding locations, they experience an average relative sea-level rise up to four times faster at 7.8 to 9.9 mm/yr. This first global quantification of relative sea-level rise shows that the resulting impacts, and adaptation needs are much higher than reported global sea-level rise measurements would suggest. Hence, coastal subsidence is an important global issue that needs more assessment and action. In particular, human-induced subsidence in and surrounding coastal cities can be rapidly reduced with appropriate policy measures for groundwater utilization and drainage. This offers substantial and rapid benefits in terms of reducing growth of coastal flood exposure due to relative sea-level rise.
Daniel Lincke; Robert J. Nicholls; Jochen Hinkel; Sally Brown; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Benoit Meyssignac; Susan E. Hanson; Jan Merkens; Jiayi Fang. A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleDaniel Lincke, Robert J. Nicholls, Jochen Hinkel, Sally Brown, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Benoit Meyssignac, Susan E. Hanson, Jan Merkens, Jiayi Fang. A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDaniel Lincke; Robert J. Nicholls; Jochen Hinkel; Sally Brown; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Benoit Meyssignac; Susan E. Hanson; Jan Merkens; Jiayi Fang. 2021. "A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure." , no. : 1.
Accelerating sea-level rise (SLR) in the course of the 21st century will lead to population displacement and migration, the intensity and patterns of which will largely depend on the type and efficiency of adaptation strategies pursued. Thus far, the potential feedbacks between adaptation and SLR-induced migration have not been considered in continental-scale assessments. This study explores the effect of three coastal adaptation policy scenarios – 1) ‘build with nature’, 2) ‘hold the line’, 3) ‘save yourself’ – on migration due to SLR, using a gravity-based population downscaling model calibrated to the Mediterranean region. The policy scenarios are consistent with the socioeconomic developments described under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Combining these with a range of SLR scenarios, we produce spatial population projections from 2020 to 2100 that allow for estimating SLR-induced migration with and without adaptation. Preliminary results show that, without adaptation, SLR may lead to migration of 10 million (SSP1-RCP2.6) to 16 million (SSP3-RCP4.5) people currently living in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean until 2100. With adaptation, the number of migrants until 2100 could be reduced by 2.1 million under the ‘build with nature’ scenario (SSP1-RCP2.6) and by up to 6 million under the ‘hold the line’ scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5). These results suggest that adaptation can be effective in reducing the number of migrants due to SLR, in particular when engineered solutions such as dikes are pursued. However, while the number of SLR-related migrants can be reduced by 50% under the ‘hold the line’ scenario, impacts would be high in case of protection failure during extreme sea level conditions. Allowing for exploring the effects of different adaptation policies on SLR-induced migration, we anticipate that our findings can provide a suitable basis for decision-making, for example in adaptation planning or regional development planning.
Lena Reimann; Bryan Jones; Claudia Wolff; Athanasios Vafeidis. Exploring the effects of adaptation policies on sea-level rise-induced migration at continental scale. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleLena Reimann, Bryan Jones, Claudia Wolff, Athanasios Vafeidis. Exploring the effects of adaptation policies on sea-level rise-induced migration at continental scale. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLena Reimann; Bryan Jones; Claudia Wolff; Athanasios Vafeidis. 2021. "Exploring the effects of adaptation policies on sea-level rise-induced migration at continental scale." , no. : 1.
In this study, we extend the global-scale Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to develop local SSPs as a tool to inform adaptation decisions (a so-called ‘climate service’) for the city of Flensburg, Germany. Flensburg experiences regular coastal flooding during storm events, which is expected to increase with sea-level rise (SLR). To develop robust adaptation strategies under the uncertainties of future SLR and socioeconomic development in the city, local socioeconomic scenarios can help explore plausible future socioeconomic conditions and how these conditions drive adaptation strategies. We employ a multi-scale co-production approach for developing such local scenarios. Using the global SSPs as boundary conditions, we construct local SSP narratives based on local SSP elements that we compile during the process. We integrate local stakeholder knowledge into the local SSPs in an iterative manner with the help of focus group discussions, a scenario workshop, and email feedback. This process results in four local SSP narratives that explore alternative trends in socioeconomic development in Flensburg and are embedded in developments at national to global scales. Due to their local relevance, the extended local SSPs can serve as a climate service to support Flensburg in developing adaptation plans to cope with the future impacts of SLR.
Lena Reimann; Bente Vollstedt; Jana Koerth; Maureen Tsakiris; Martin Beer; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany. Futures 2021, 127, 102691 .
AMA StyleLena Reimann, Bente Vollstedt, Jana Koerth, Maureen Tsakiris, Martin Beer, Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany. Futures. 2021; 127 ():102691.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLena Reimann; Bente Vollstedt; Jana Koerth; Maureen Tsakiris; Martin Beer; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. 2021. "Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany." Futures 127, no. : 102691.
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Animesh K. Gain; Carlo Giupponi; Fabrice G. Renaud; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Sustainability of complex social-ecological systems: methods, tools, and approaches. Regional Environmental Change 2020, 20, 1 -4.
AMA StyleAnimesh K. Gain, Carlo Giupponi, Fabrice G. Renaud, Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Sustainability of complex social-ecological systems: methods, tools, and approaches. Regional Environmental Change. 2020; 20 (3):1-4.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnimesh K. Gain; Carlo Giupponi; Fabrice G. Renaud; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. 2020. "Sustainability of complex social-ecological systems: methods, tools, and approaches." Regional Environmental Change 20, no. 3: 1-4.
Managed realignment (MR) constitutes a form of nature-based adaptation to coastal hazards, including sea level rise and storm surges. The implementation of MR aims at the (re)creation of intertidal habitats, such as saltmarshes, for mitigating flood and erosion risks and for creating more natural shorelines. However, some evidence suggests that the desired coastal protection function of MR schemes (in terms of high water level (HWL) attenuation) may be limited and it was hypothesized that this was due to the configuration of the remaining seawalls, which we refer to as scheme design. The effects of scheme design on within-site HWL attenuation are analysed for six scheme designs that differ in terms of breach characteristics and water storage capacity. The scenarios are established by manipulating the digital elevation model of the site topography to vary the configuration of the old defence line and the breaches. Our results show that changes in scheme design, particularly storage area and number and width of breaches, had significant effects on the site's HWL attenuation capacity. Decreasing the tidal prism by changing the number and size of breaches, with the site area kept constant, leads to increased modelled HWL attenuation rates. However, average HWL attenuation rates of >10 cm km−1 are only achieved when site size increases. The mean high water depth of each scenario, calculated by dividing tidal prism by MR area, explains most of the variation in average HWL attenuation between all scenarios. Attention to potential within-site hydrodynamics at the design stage will aid the construction of more effective MR schemes with respect to coastal protection in the future.
Joshua Kiesel; Mark Schuerch; Elizabeth K. Christie; Iris Möller; Tom Spencer; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Effective design of managed realignment schemes can reduce coastal flood risks. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 2020, 242, 106844 .
AMA StyleJoshua Kiesel, Mark Schuerch, Elizabeth K. Christie, Iris Möller, Tom Spencer, Athanasios T. Vafeidis. Effective design of managed realignment schemes can reduce coastal flood risks. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 2020; 242 ():106844.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJoshua Kiesel; Mark Schuerch; Elizabeth K. Christie; Iris Möller; Tom Spencer; Athanasios T. Vafeidis. 2020. "Effective design of managed realignment schemes can reduce coastal flood risks." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 242, no. : 106844.
We introduce a novel approach to statistically assess the non-linear interaction of tide and non-tidal residual in order to quantify its contribution to extreme sea levels and hence its role in modulating coastal protection levels, globally. We demonstrate that extreme sea levels are up to 30% (or 70 cm) higher if non-linear interactions are not accounted for (e.g., by independently adding astronomical and non-astronomical components, as is often done in impact case studies). These overestimates are similar to recent sea-level rise projections to 2100 at some locations. Furthermore, we further find evidence for changes in this non-linear interaction over time, which has the potential for counteracting the increasing flood risk associated with sea-level rise and tidal and/or meteorological changes alone. Finally, we show how accounting for non-linearity in coastal impact assessment modulates coastal exposure, reducing recent estimates of global coastal flood costs by ~16%, and population affected by ~8%.
Arne Arns; Thomas Wahl; Claudia Wolff; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Ivan D. Haigh; Philip Woodworth; Sebastian Niehüser; Jürgen Jensen. Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -9.
AMA StyleArne Arns, Thomas Wahl, Claudia Wolff, Athanasios T. Vafeidis, Ivan D. Haigh, Philip Woodworth, Sebastian Niehüser, Jürgen Jensen. Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-9.
Chicago/Turabian StyleArne Arns; Thomas Wahl; Claudia Wolff; Athanasios T. Vafeidis; Ivan D. Haigh; Philip Woodworth; Sebastian Niehüser; Jürgen Jensen. 2020. "Non-linear interaction modulates global extreme sea levels, coastal flood exposure, and impacts." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-9.
Managed realignment (MR), a form of of nature-based coastal adaptation to reduce flood and erosion risk, involves the abandonment of existing sea defences and their relocation further inland. MR aims to (re)create intertidal habitats, such as saltmarshes, between the old and new lines of defence; as well as flood water storage. The newly created habitats dissipate wave energy and thus provide new natural coastal protection. However, the assessment of the success of MR is difficult, as restoration targets are often vague and data on project performance are scarce. The few studies that do exist show a lack of understanding about the effects of MR scheme design on high water level (HWL) attenuation and thus its coastal protection function.
Here we present the results of a 2-D hydrodynamic model, calibrated and validated against field measurements of equinoctial tides between August and October 2017, taken within, and seaward of, the Freiston Shore MR site, The Wash, eastern England. Using this model, we performed sensitivity analyses to explore whether or not, and how, the Freiston Shore MR scheme design affects HWL attenuation. For this purpose we changed the configuration of the old defence line and the breaches created within it for renewed tidal exchange and manipulated the digital elevation model of within-site topography. Specifically, we applied six scheme design scenarios (two scenarios with three breaches and varying MR areas, three single breach scenarios of different breach width and one bank removal scenario) and assessed High Water Level (HWL) attenuation rates for each scenario.
Our results show that scheme design, particularly storage area and number and size of breaches, of the Freiston Shore MR site had a significant effect on the site´s HWL attenuation capacity. When the tidal prism is varied by changing the number and size of breaches and the storage area kept constant, modelled HWL attenuation rates increased with decreasing tidal prism. However, largest HWL attenuation rates (> 10 cm km-1) were only obtained if the MR area was of sufficient size, therefore, it is only the larger sites which are exhibiting effective coastal protection. Consequently, the maximum modelled HWL attenuation rate occurred (up to 73 cm km-1) for the scenario with the largest area (142 ha).
The Mean High Water Depth (MHWD) from each of these scenarios explained most of the variation in HWL attenuation between the scenarios (R² = 0.996). This strong correlation may help to inform the construction of more efficient MR schemes with respect to coastal protection in the future.
Joshua Kiesel; Mark Schuerch; Elizabeth K. Christie; Iris Möller; Tom Spencer; Athanasios Vafeidis. Breach the dikes! How to design saltmarsh restoration schemes for mitigating coastal flooding. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleJoshua Kiesel, Mark Schuerch, Elizabeth K. Christie, Iris Möller, Tom Spencer, Athanasios Vafeidis. Breach the dikes! How to design saltmarsh restoration schemes for mitigating coastal flooding. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJoshua Kiesel; Mark Schuerch; Elizabeth K. Christie; Iris Möller; Tom Spencer; Athanasios Vafeidis. 2020. "Breach the dikes! How to design saltmarsh restoration schemes for mitigating coastal flooding." , no. : 1.
The actual use of climate services depends on the identification of real user needs and their integration into the service. Thus, for the production of climate services user involvement is a vital component. Descriptions of practical approaches in the scientific literature are rare but necessary in order to gain better user insights and to improve the user-provider interface. In the frame of the ERA4CS project EVOKED, we apply the user-centered Living Lab approach to develop climate services with the objective to support the coastal adaptation process in Flensburg, a city vulnerable to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise. The aim is to transform climate information into valuable and useable climate services for users. In the beginning of the project we identified the climate service user needs of the community. Thereafter, we co-produced a web-based story map in collaboration with the users, as an information tool for the general public. The story map includes information on sea-level rise and its potential impacts and displays information on relevant adaptations options. For the production process of the story map we started with a compilation phase by drafting a first version of the story map from the providers’ perspective, followed by a demonstration and online feedback phase with user involvement. Based on the received feedback, we adjusted the story map to meet user needs. Results showed the need for clearer visualization of e.g. exposed locations in the city and more detailed information on adaptation measures. Preliminary findings indicate that the active provider-user interaction for the climate service may lead to long-term adaptation action.
Bente Vollstedt; Jana Koerth; Athanasios Vafeidis. How to co-produce climate services in collaboration with users? Insights from a story map development process. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleBente Vollstedt, Jana Koerth, Athanasios Vafeidis. How to co-produce climate services in collaboration with users? Insights from a story map development process. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBente Vollstedt; Jana Koerth; Athanasios Vafeidis. 2020. "How to co-produce climate services in collaboration with users? Insights from a story map development process." , no. : 1.
The urban extent in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) is increasing faster than in the surrounding regions, which will lead to increased exposure to climate change-related hazards. Societies’ risk to these hazards will, therefore, depend on the rate and pattern of urban expansion and in what ways decision-makers will drive future urban development. One opportunity to investigate how urban development influences potential future coastal flood risk is to combine impact assessments with spatiotemporal urban land cover analysis and spatially explicit future urban projection. In this study, we have developed spatially explicit urban extent scenarios for 10 countries in the Mediterranean. The urban extent scenarios are quantitatively and qualitatively consistent with the assumptions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We employ a machine learning approach, namely Artificial Neural Networks (Multi-Layer Perceptron - MLP), to develop an Urban Change Model. The MLP model employs simple inputs as proxies for processes that drive urban development on a regional scale and estimates the likelihood of urban transformation for every grid cell between 2000 and 2012. In a next step, we calculate, for each SSP, the future urban land demand in 5-year time steps until 2100 and classify the ANN model outputs accordingly. These projections are then employed for calculating future exposure to coastal flooding.
The urban change models are able to reproduce the observed patterns of urban development with an overall accuracy of approximately 99% in all countries. The future projections indicate that accounting for the spatial patterns of coastal development can lead to significant differences in exposure. The increase in urban extent in the extended LECZ (below 20m) until 2100 varies, for instance, by 67% (2075km²) for Italy, 104% (2331km²) for France (Mediterranean coast only) and 86% (691km²) in Greece depending on the urban development scenario chosen. This highlights that accounting for urban development in long-term adaptation planning, e.g. in the form of land-use planning is a very effective measure for reducing future coastal flood risk on a regional scale.
Claudia Wolff; Theodore Nikoletopoulos; Jochen Hinkel; Athanasios Vafeidis. What plausible urban coastal futures may look like? Spatially explicit urbanization projections for 10 Mediterranean countries. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleClaudia Wolff, Theodore Nikoletopoulos, Jochen Hinkel, Athanasios Vafeidis. What plausible urban coastal futures may look like? Spatially explicit urbanization projections for 10 Mediterranean countries. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleClaudia Wolff; Theodore Nikoletopoulos; Jochen Hinkel; Athanasios Vafeidis. 2020. "What plausible urban coastal futures may look like? Spatially explicit urbanization projections for 10 Mediterranean countries." , no. : 1.
Brown, S.; Nicholls, R.J.; Pardaens, A.K.; Lowe, J.A.; Tol, R.S.J.; Vafeidis, A.T., and Hinkel, J., 2019. Benefits of climatechange mitigation for reducing the impacts of sea-level rise in G-20 countries. Journal of Coastal Research, 35(4), 884–895. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.This paper assesses the potential benefits of climate-change mitigation in reducing the impacts of sea-level rise over the 21st century in G-20 countries (excluding the European Union as a whole), using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model. Impacts of the expected number of people flooded annually and wetland losses were assessed. To assess the benefits of mitigation, it was assumed that defences were not upgraded during the study. Globally, with a sea-level rise of 0.68 m by the 2080s (with respect to 1980–99), representing a potential future with limited climate-change mitigation, and with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1 socio-economic scenario, 123 million additional people could be flooded annually and 39% of present global wetland stock could be lost. For a 0.19-m rise in sea level, associated with a substantial reduction in emissions, the number of people flooded could be reduced to 13 million/y, with 21% of global wetland stock loss, unless new wetlands emerge. Collectively, non-Annex 1 G-20 countries experience a disproportionately higher number of people flooded in their nations compared with the proportion of population flooded globally. The greatest wetland losses for G-20 countries are projected for Australia, Indonesia, and the United States. Thus, G-20 nations with the highest emissions or gross domestic product frequently do not experience the greatest impacts, despite some of these nations being potentially more able to pay for adaptation.
Sally Brown; Robert Nicholls; Anne K. Pardaens; Jason A. Lowe; Richard S.J. Tol; Athanasios Vafeidis; Jochen Hinkel. Benefits of Climate-Change Mitigation for Reducing the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in G-20 Countries. Journal of Coastal Research 2019, 35, 884 -895.
AMA StyleSally Brown, Robert Nicholls, Anne K. Pardaens, Jason A. Lowe, Richard S.J. Tol, Athanasios Vafeidis, Jochen Hinkel. Benefits of Climate-Change Mitigation for Reducing the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in G-20 Countries. Journal of Coastal Research. 2019; 35 (4):884-895.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSally Brown; Robert Nicholls; Anne K. Pardaens; Jason A. Lowe; Richard S.J. Tol; Athanasios Vafeidis; Jochen Hinkel. 2019. "Benefits of Climate-Change Mitigation for Reducing the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise in G-20 Countries." Journal of Coastal Research 35, no. 4: 884-895.
The managed realignment (MR) of flood protection on low-lying coasts, and the creation, or re-creation, of intertidal saltmarsh habitat between old and new, more landward sea defence lines is an intervention designed to help protect coastal infrastructure and communities against the impact of storm waves and surges. However, the effectiveness of such schemes has rarely been proven in the field. Environmental monitoring has generally been limited to the first few years after implementation and has focussed on sediment accretion and surface elevation change, vegetation establishment and habitat utilization, to the neglect of the study of biophysical processes, such as wave energy dissipation and High Water Level (HWL) attenuation. We address this knowledge gap by analysing HWL attenuation rates in saltmarshes from within, and in front of, the open coast MR site of Freiston Shore (Lincolnshire, UK). For this purpose, a suite of 16 pressure transducers was deployed along four sections (two within and two outside the MR) of identical setup to measure water level variations during the highest spring tides of the year 2017. Our results show that for the conditions encountered during the field monitoring period, the capacity of the Freiston Shore MR site to provide HWL attenuation was limited. HWL attenuation rates were significantly higher over the natural saltmarsh (in front of the MR), where HWL attenuation ranged between 0 and 101 cm km−1 (mean 46 cm km−1). Within the MR site, rates varied between −102 and 160 cm km−1 (mean −3 cm km−1), with even negative attenuation (i.e. amplification) for about half of the measured tides. We argue that the weak performance of the MR site in terms of HWL attenuation was a result of internal hydrodynamics caused by scheme design and meteorological conditions. The latter may have counteracted the HWL attenuating effect caused by the additional shallow water area provided by the restored saltmarsh.
Joshua Kiesel; Mark Schuerch; Iris Möller; Tom Spencer; Athanasios Vafeidis. Attenuation of high water levels over restored saltmarshes can be limited. Insights from Freiston Shore, Lincolnshire, UK. Ecological Engineering 2019, 136, 89 -100.
AMA StyleJoshua Kiesel, Mark Schuerch, Iris Möller, Tom Spencer, Athanasios Vafeidis. Attenuation of high water levels over restored saltmarshes can be limited. Insights from Freiston Shore, Lincolnshire, UK. Ecological Engineering. 2019; 136 ():89-100.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJoshua Kiesel; Mark Schuerch; Iris Möller; Tom Spencer; Athanasios Vafeidis. 2019. "Attenuation of high water levels over restored saltmarshes can be limited. Insights from Freiston Shore, Lincolnshire, UK." Ecological Engineering 136, no. : 89-100.