The article considers a series of issues connected with the assessment of orderliness of regional road safety provision systems. Success in the improvement of manufacturing processes management depends a lot on the level of system orderliness. This article presents a method of statistical modeling of the orderliness of regional road safety provision systems by assessing the information entropy in the cause-effect chain «Population ( P ) – The number of vehicles ( N ) – The number of road accidents ( DTP ) – The number of deaths in road accidents ( PG )». It was found that the range of actual values of relative entropy Hn for regional road safety provision systems is [0.7161; 0.9787]. According to the results of held statistical modeling, the classification of regions of the Russian Federation by the orderliness of road safety provision systems processes was developed. During the discussion of the results an assumption, that information entropy of road safety provision systems is determined by resource availability of industry, was made.
The article considers issues of assessment of the relation between road accidents severity and psychoemotional state of Russian society. In the context of the hypothesis about the significant impact of people’s awareness of the value of life on their ordinary behavior, four subtasks were solved. Firstly, the difference in road accidents severity between all road accidents and road accidents that happened in alcohol intoxication state was established. Secondly, indicators of the psychoemotional state of people from different Russian regions were identified. Thirdly, dependencies «Road accidents severity = f(Psychoemotional state of people from Russian region)» for two cases - «All road accidents» and «Road accidents that happened in alcohol intoxication state» were defined. Finally, it was found that degree of impact of alcohol intoxication on road accidents severity depends on the psychoemotional state of people from different Russian regions. Produced results can be used in the development of regional programs of road safety management taking into account features of the psychoemotional background in different subjects of Russia.
1 January 2017 in Transportation Research Procedia
Transport systems are complex systems present in modern cities. The sustainability of all other urban systems depends on the sustainable functioning of urban transport. Various processes occur within transport systems. Road traffic is one of them. At the same time, road traffic is a rather complex process to manage, which is explained by the influence of many different internal and external environmental factors. The unpredictable and chaotic behavior of each vehicle in a traffic flow complicates predicting the transport situation and traffic management. This problem gave rise to several unsolved problems, including traffic congestion and road accident rates. The solution to these problems is connected with sustainably managing transport systems in terms of road traffic. However, numerous regularities between elements within the system should be understood in order to implement the management process. Unfortunately, the results of many previous studies often reflect only partial regularities and have limited functionality. Therefore, a new approach to urban traffic management is needed. As opposed to the existing solutions, the authors of this paper propose to implement management based on the regularities of changes in the chaos of the transport system. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to establish the relationship between road traffic chaos and road accident rates. The general methodological basis of this research is the system approach and its methods: analysis and synthesis. The theoretical studies were mostly based on the theories of chaos, dynamic systems, and traffic flows. The experimental studies were based on the theories of experimental design, probability, and mathematical statistics. To achieve this goal, a profound analysis covered studies on the sustainability of transport and dynamic systems, sociodynamics, and traffic. The authors proposed considering the relative entropy of lane occupancy at signal-controlled intersections as a measure for assessing traffic flow chaos and sustainability. Notably, as the main conclusions, the authors established regularities for the influence of entropy on the kinetic energy of traffic flows and injury risk. It also makes sense to emphasize that the initial data for the experiment were collected via real-time processing of video images using neural network technologies. These technologies will further allow for the implementation of traffic management and real-time forecasting of various events. Ultimately, the authors identified changes in injury risk depending on the level of road chaos. According to the authors, the obtained results can be used to improve the sustainability of urban transport systems. The research identified changes in injury risk depending on the level of road chaos, which could have significant implications for urban traffic management strategies.
1 January 2018 in Transportation Research Procedia
Within the framework of this paper, the author’s entropy method of road safety management in large-sized systems is considered. The road safety management system in the Russian Federation, the largest country in the world, was selected for this case study. The purpose of the article is to present the opportunities and methodology of the use of quantitative assessments of the orderliness of the road accident rate formation process in regional transport systems for road safety management. Orderliness, in other words, systemic anti-chaos, can be quantified using the C. Shannon informational entropy H. The article consists of the results of the issue’s state analysis; methodology of assessment of the orderliness of the road accident rate formation process based on the using of the cause-and-effect chain; entropic method of the road safety management in large-scale systems, in particular, the algorithm of management of regional road safety in Russia taking into account the level of its entropic orderliness; and examples of the quantitative evaluation of the orderliness of regional road safety provision systems in Russia. The key results of the research are spatio-temporal patterns of the change of the orderliness of the road safety provision systems in the Russian Federation in 2004–2020. Based on the results, conclusions and recommendations about the practical application of the entropic method of road safety management in large federal states with complex administrative structures were formulated. These results give an idea of the possibilities of the usage of entropic approaches in road safety management to assess the orderliness of the regional transport systems and the advantages of the entropic method over other managerial methods.