The article considers a series of issues connected with the assessment of orderliness of regional road safety provision systems. Success in the improvement of manufacturing processes management depends a lot on the level of system orderliness. This article presents a method of statistical modeling of the orderliness of regional road safety provision systems by assessing the information entropy in the cause-effect chain «Population ( P ) – The number of vehicles ( N ) – The number of road accidents ( DTP ) – The number of deaths in road accidents ( PG )». It was found that the range of actual values of relative entropy Hn for regional road safety provision systems is [0.7161; 0.9787]. According to the results of held statistical modeling, the classification of regions of the Russian Federation by the orderliness of road safety provision systems processes was developed. During the discussion of the results an assumption, that information entropy of road safety provision systems is determined by resource availability of industry, was made.
The article considers issues of assessment of the relation between road accidents severity and psychoemotional state of Russian society. In the context of the hypothesis about the significant impact of people’s awareness of the value of life on their ordinary behavior, four subtasks were solved. Firstly, the difference in road accidents severity between all road accidents and road accidents that happened in alcohol intoxication state was established. Secondly, indicators of the psychoemotional state of people from different Russian regions were identified. Thirdly, dependencies «Road accidents severity = f(Psychoemotional state of people from Russian region)» for two cases - «All road accidents» and «Road accidents that happened in alcohol intoxication state» were defined. Finally, it was found that degree of impact of alcohol intoxication on road accidents severity depends on the psychoemotional state of people from different Russian regions. Produced results can be used in the development of regional programs of road safety management taking into account features of the psychoemotional background in different subjects of Russia.
In spring 2020 the whole world went through the “black swan”—COVID-19 pandemic. The healthcare systems of all countries and the world economy, in general, became very stressed. The extraordinary decline of activity in all spheres, except healthcare, led to a drop in the demand for transport services, including city public transport. It was important for city management to support the sustainability of the local transport system. The article presents fundamental approaches to assessing the sustainability of a transport service, particularly city passenger public transport (CPPT), for the example of the large Russian city Tyumen (size of population—nearly 807 thousand people). Methods of analysis of the sustainability of the transport process in conditions of negative environmental impact (COVID-19 pandemic) are considered. During the period from 30.03.2020 to 31.05.2020 (nine weeks—the acute phase of COVID-19 pandemic) structural sustainability of the CPPT system in Tyumen kept a high level. By changing the parameters of the planned characteristics of the CPPT system state, an attempt to adapt the transport service supply to a sharp decrease in transport demand was made. In the period of “self-isolation”, the demand for the CPPT transport service reduced more than the transport service supply. Sustainability of CPPT functioning was evaluated by calculating the elasticity of the transport supply (number of trips) in relation to the actual demand (actual volume of transportations). Calculation of the elasticity index of the CPPT system of Tyumen during nine weeks of April–May 2020 (duration of “self-isolation“) is provided. A conclusion was made from the results of the research. In particular, it was found that the foreground target function of city management was the maintenance of a high level of transportation processes to the detriment of the transportations’ effectiveness. Such a policy led to contradictory results—the additional financial expenses at the rate of 135–150 million rubles and quite a high level of contentment of the Tyumen population with the quality of the CPPT work (sociological research established that 80–85% of respondents were satisfied with the quality of the transport service in April–May 2020).
1 June 2017 in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
The article considers the issues of air pollution assessment in Russian industrial regions (2014) and cities (2012). The statistical data is presented both in terms of absolute emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere of Russian cities and relative air pollution calculated for 1 average statistical inhabitant. Classifications of the ecological state of Russian cities on the basis of specific (per inhabitant) air pollution and the air pollution by predominant type source (stationary or non-stationary) are proposed.
1 August 2016 in IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering
Emergency situations in road complex are road traffic accidents (RA) with severe consequences. These are incidents connected with the death and injury of large number of people. The most common reasons for this are the collision of three or more cars, the collision of buses with trains at railroad crossings, the fall of the buses in the mountain gorge, and other similar cases. Is it possible to predict such events? How to build a preventive protection against such emergencies? We have to understand that emergencies in a road complex are qualitative expression of the quantitative processes that characterize the general state of road safety in the region. In this regard, at the level of state monitoring of emergency situations it is important to understand in general - in which region the situation is more complicated and in which is more favorable. This knowledge helps to more efficiently reallocate resources intended to solve the problems of road safety provision. The consequence of this is improvement of the quality of preventive protection from the emergencies in the road complex. The article presents quantitative values of severity of accidents in the Russian Federation regions and the Pareto chart distribution of cumulates of the accident severity for the Russian Federation. On the basis of the complex assessment of the spatial non-uniformity of the accident severity results it offers two important recommendations, implementation of which will alleviate the issue of formation of emergency situations in the road of the Russian Federation on the basis of the complex assessment of the spatial nonuniformity of the accident severity results.
Dialectics, or developmental transformation, would eventually cause any system to change. The level and depth of these changes vary and depend on the power of external influence and system reservation mechanisms. The art of managing system processes consists of two main aspects. The first aspect involves the sagacity of managers and predicting general environmental change trends (and their impacts on the managed system). The second involves adjusting to these trends, maximizing possible benefits, and minimizing the negative manifestations of this process. Innovation plays an important role, contributing to system transformations with maximal effect and minimal loss. Public transport systems are important elements in cities, as they provide spatial mobility for at least half of the citizens of a city who cannot use individual transportation. Modern urbanization and peculiarities of the social–economic statuses of many citizens contribute to the fact that organized public transportation is unprofitable. The low solvency of citizens who use public transportation services means that passenger transport systems do not work with enough profitability. As a result, governing institutions often choose to subsidize unprofitable transporter activities, thereby prolonging the functioning of unprofitable routes. This is possible only in conditions of sustainability (in regards to a non-optimal system), when the environment is calm, and its negative impact is low. “Black swans” (according to N. Taleb) are bifurcation factors that break the sustainability of non-optimal system. Urban public transport (UPT) of a large Russian city, Tyumen, experienced it in 2020, in connection with the COVID-19 lockdown. The sharp decrease in population mobility in Tyumen, in 2020–2021, caused the need for a complete transformation of the transport service system. However, managers did not want to fundamentally change a system that consensually suited most counterparties. The search for new balances in a system that demands transformation is one way for sustainable provision. This article looks at the transformation and sustainability of a UPT system in the large Russian city of Tyumen, under conditions affected by the negative impact of COVID-19. Results of a comparative (i.e., pre-crisis (2019) and crisis (2020)) Pareto analysis of the contributions of different UPT routes are presented. Transformation of the structure of the UPT route system can overcome the “crisis” COVID-19 period and minimize its financial-economic costs.