Long-term data series (1971–2015) of physical and biogeochemical parameters were analyzed in order to assess trends and variability of oceanographic conditions in the northern Adriatic Sea (NAS), a mid-latitude shallow continental shelf strongly impacted by river discharges, human activities and climate changes. Interpolation maps and statistical models were applied to investigate seasonal and spatial variability, as well as decadal trends of temperature, salinity, chlorophyll-a and nutrients. This analysis shows that sea surface temperature increased by +0.36% year⁻¹ over four decades. Annual mean flow of the Po River markedly changed due to the occurrence of periods of persistent drought, whereas the frequency of flow rates higher than 3000 m³ s⁻¹ decreased between 2006 and 2015. Moreover, we observed a long-term decrease in surface phosphate concentrations in Po River water (−1.34% year⁻¹) and in seawater (in summer −2.56% year⁻¹) coupled, however, to a significant increase in nitrate concentration in seawater (+3.80% year⁻¹) in almost all seasons. These changes indicate that the nutrient concentrations in the NAS have been largely modulated, in the last forty years, by the evolution of environmental management practices and of the runoff. This implies that further alteration of the marine environment must be expected as a consequence of the climate changes.

More than 80% of wastewaters are discharged into rivers or seas, with a negative impact on water quality along the coast due to the presence of potential pathogens of faecal origin. Escherichia coli and enterococci are important indicators to assess, monitor, and predict microbial water quality in natural ecosystems. During rainfall events, the amount of wastewater delivered to rivers and coastal systems is increased dramatically. This study implements measures capable of monitoring the pathways of wastewater discharge to rivers and the transport of faecal bacteria to the coastal area during and following extreme rainfall events. Spatio-temporal variability of faecal microorganisms and their relationship with environmental variables and sewage outflow in an area located in the western Adriatic coast (Fano, Italy) was monitored. The daily monitoring during the rainy events was carried out for two summer seasons, for a total of five sampling periods. These results highlight that faecal microbial contaminations were related to rainy events with a high flow of wastewater, with recovery times for the microbiological indicators varying between 24 and 72 h and influenced by a dynamic dispersion. The positive correlation between ammonium and faecal bacteria at the Arzilla River and the consequences in seawater can provide a theoretical basis for controlling ammonium levels in rivers as a proxy to monitor the potential risk of bathing waters pathogen pollution.

The dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum is known for the production of potent neurotoxins affecting the health of human seafood consumers via paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the toxin content and the expression level of the genes involved in paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) production. The algal cultures were grown both in standard f/2 medium and in phosphorus/nitrogen limitation. In our study, LC-HRMS analyses of PST profile and content in different Mediterranean A. minutum strains confirmed that this species was able to synthesize mainly the saxitoxin analogues Gonyautoxin-1 (GTX1) and Gonyautoxin-4 (GTX4). The average cellular toxin content varied among different strains, and between growth phases, highlighting a decreasing trend from exponential to stationary phase in all culture conditions tested. The absolute quantities of intracellular sxtA1 and sxtG mRNA were not correlated with the amount of intracellular toxins in the analysed A. minutum suggesting that the production of toxins may be regulated by post-transcriptional mechanisms and/or by the concerted actions of alternative genes belonging to the PST biosynthesis gene cluster. Therefore, it is likely that the sxtA1 and sxtG gene expression could not reflect the PST accumulation in the Mediterranean A. minutum populations under the examined standard and nutrient limiting conditions.

Increased anthropic pressure on the coastal zones of the Mediterranean Sea caused an enrichment in nutrients, promoting microalgal proliferation. Among those organisms, some species, such as the dinoflagellate Alexandrium minutum, can produce neurotoxins. Toxic blooms can cause serious impacts to human health, marine environment and economic maritime activities at coastal sites. A mathematical model predicting the presence of A. minutum in coastal waters of the NW Adriatic Sea was developed using a Random Forest (RF), which is a Machine Learning technique, trained with molecular data of A. minutum occurrence obtained by molecular PCR assay. The model is able to correctly predict more than 80% of the instances in the test data set. Our results showed that predictive models may play a useful role in the study of Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB).

The aim of this study is to develop a relocatable modelling system able to describe the microbial contamination that affects the quality of coastal bathing waters. Pollution events are mainly triggered by urban sewer outflows during massive rainy events, with relevant negative consequences on the marine environment and tourism and related activities of coastal towns. A finite element hydrodynamic model was applied to five study areas in the Adriatic Sea, which differ for urban, oceanographic and morphological conditions. With the help of transport-diffusion and microbial decay modules, the distribution of Escherichia coli was investigated during significant events. The numerical investigation was supported by detailed in situ observational datasets. The model results were evaluated against water level, sea temperature, salinity and E. coli concentrations acquired in situ, demonstrating the capacity of the modelling suite in simulating the circulation in the coastal areas of the Adriatic Sea, as well as several main transport and diffusion dynamics, such as riverine and polluted waters dispersion. Moreover, the results of the simulations were used to perform a comparative analysis among the different study sites, demonstrating that dilution and mixing, mostly induced by the tidal action, had a stronger effect on bacteria reduction with respect to microbial decay. Stratification and estuarine dynamics also play an important role in governing microbial concentration. The modelling suite can be used as a beach management tool for improving protection of public health, as required by the EU Bathing Water Directive.