Forest fire modeling often requires estimates of fuel moisture status. Among the various fuel variables used for fire modeling studies, the 10-h fuel moisture content (10-h FMC) is a promising predictor since it can be automatically measured in real time at study sites, yielding more information for fire models. Here, the performance of 10-h FMC models based on three different approaches, including regression (M_REG), machine learning algorithms (M_ML) with random forest and support vector machine, and a process-based model (M_FSMM), were compared. In addition, whole-year models of each type were compared with their respective seasonal models to explore whether the development of separate seasonal models yielded better estimates. Meteorological conditions and 10-h FMC were measured each minute for 18 months in and near a forest site and used for constructing and examining the 10-h FMC models. In the assessments, M_ML showed the best performance (R² = 0.77–0.82 and root mean squared error [RMSE] = 2.05–2.84%). The introduction of the correction coefficient into M_REG improved its estimates (R² improved from 0.56–0.58 to 0.68–0.70 and RMSE improved from 3.13–3.85% to 2.64–3.27%) by reducing the errors associated with high 10-h FMC values. M_FSMM showed the worst performance (R² = 0.41–0.43 and RMSE = 3.70–4.39%), which could possibly be attributed to the lack of radiation input from the study sites as well as the particular fuel moisture stick sensor that was used. Whole-year models and seasonal models showed almost equal performance because 10-h FMC varied in response to atmospheric moisture conditions rather than specific seasonal patterns. The adoption of a hybrid modeling approach that blends machine-learning and process-based approaches may yield better predictability and interpretability. This study provides additional evidence of the lagged response of 10-h FMC after rainfall, and suggests a new way of accounting for this response in a regression model. Our approach using comparisons among models can be utilized for other fire modeling studies, including those involving fire danger ratings.

As satellite launching increases worldwide, uncertainty quantification for satellite data becomes essential. Misunderstanding satellite data uncertainties can lead to misinterpretations of natural phenomena, emphasizing the importance of validation. In this study, we established a tower-based network equipped with multispectral sensors, SD-500 and SD-600, to validate the satellite-derived NDVI product. Multispectral sensors were installed at eight long-term ecological monitoring sites managed by NIFoS. High correlations were observed between both multispectral sensors and a hyperspectral sensor, with correlations of 0.76 and 0.92, respectively, indicating that the calibration between SD-500 and SD-600 was unnecessary. High correlations, 0.8 to 0.96, between the tower-based NDVI with Sentinel-2 NDVI, were observed at most sites, while lower correlations at Anmyeon-do, Jeju, and Wando highlighting challenges in evergreen forests, likely due to shadows in complex canopy structures. In future research, we aim to analyze the uncertainties of surface reflectance in evergreen forests and develop a biome-specific validation protocol starting from site selection. Especially, the integration of tower, drone, and satellite data is expected to provide insights into the effect of complex forest structures on different spatial scales. This study could offer insights for CAS500-4 and other satellite validations, thereby enhancing our understanding of diverse ecological conditions.

Kyoung-Min Kim, Joongbin Lim, Sol-E Choi, Nanghyun Cho, Minji Seo, Sunjoo Lee, Hanbyol Woo, Junghee Lee, Cheolho Lee, Junhee Lee, Seunghyun Lee, Myoungsoo Won. Korean J. Remote Sens. -0001;0:. https://doi.org/10.7780/kjrs.2024.40.5.2.8