The quasi-stationary asymmetry of total ozone over Antarctica during spring is studied by TOMS data during the period 1979–2005. Statistics on the amplitude and longitudinal position of zonal anomalies are obtained from the distribution of total ozone along seven individual latitudes at 5-degree intervals between 50° S and 80° S. As shown by the September-November means, the mid-latitude collar of ozone-rich stratospheric air has a sub-Antarctic maximum with a mean location in the quadrant 90° E–180° E and a total ozone level of about 380 DU between 50° S and 60° S. The steady displacement and elongation of the ozone hole under the influence of planetary waves causes a zonal anomaly of low ozone in the sector 0°–60° W with total ozone levels of about 200 DU between 70° S and 80° S. Climatologically, the highest amplitude of the zonal anomaly is 57.2±13.5 DU (relative asymmetry of 32% between high and low ozone levels) at 65° S latitude. A significant eastward shift of approximately 45° in longitude is observed in the total ozone minimum over the Weddell Sea – South Atlantic sector during 1979–2005, whereas the zonal maximum is relatively stable in location. Also apparent is a long-term shift in tropopause temperature distribution in the region. The geographical distribution of the zonal extremes in total ozone for the seven latitudes shows that (i) the extremes exhibit sensitivity to the shape of the Antarctic continent, (ii) the stationarity of the extremes increases poleward above the edge of continent and (iii) the positions of the extremes at the higher latitudes tend to follow the meridionally oriented elements of orography. It is suggested that the radiative influence of Antarctica contributes to the formation of this pattern. Anomalies in the horizontal structure of the tropopause, which appear related to orography, support this view. Mechanisms involved in the formation and decadal change in the total ozone asymmetry, as well as possible influences of the asymmetry on the stratospheric thermal regimes and regional UV irradiance redistribution are discussed.

The level of quasi-stationary planetary wave (QSW) activity in the Antarctic winter stratosphere provides insights into the likely behaviour of the ozone hole in the following spring months. Observation of anomalously large amplitude of the QSW in winter stratospheric temperatures is an indicator that strong disturbances to the polar vortex are likely to occur, and may lead to large reductions in both the area of the Antarctic ozone hole and the overall amount of stratospheric ozone that is depleted. In the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) preconditions in 2019, the maximum QSW amplitude over Antarctica in August was approximately 12 K, which was only 2 K less than conditions prior to the unprecedented major SSW in 2002. The additional factors disturbing the Antarctic stratosphere in austral winter 2019 were anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and the western Indian Ocean, and the descending easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Under these preconditions, the Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 had the potential to demonstrate the early disruption and reduced level of the ozone depletion that has been confirmed by the satellite ozone observations. The anomalous ozone hole may also have important regional consequences for weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.

Stratospheric preconditions for the annual Antarctic ozone hole are analyzed using the amplitude of quasi-stationary planetary waves in temperature as a predictor of total ozone column behaviour. It is found that the quasi-stationary wave amplitude in August is highly correlated with September–November total ozone over Antarctica with correlation coefficient (r) as high as 0.83 indicating that quasi-stationary wave effects in late winter have a persisting influence on the evolution of the ozone hole during the following three months. Correlation maxima are found in both the lower and middle stratosphere. These likely result from the influence of wave activity on ozone depletion due to chemical processes, and ozone accumulation due to large-scale ozone transport, respectively. Both correlation maxima indicate that spring total ozone tends to increase in the case of amplified activity of quasi-stationary waves in late winter. Since the stationary wave number one dominates the planetary waves that propagate into the Antarctic stratosphere in late austral winter, it is largely responsible for the stationary zonal asymmetry of the ozone hole relative to the South Pole. Processes associated with zonally asymmetric ozone and temperature which possibly contribute to differences in the persistence and location of the correlation maxima are discussed.

Anomalies in the Antarctic total ozone and amplitudes of the quasi-stationary planetary waves in the lower stratosphere temperature during the winter and spring of 1988 and 2002 have been compared. Westward displacement of the quasi-stationary wave (QSW) extremes by 50°–70° relative to the preceding years of the strong stratospheric polar vortex in 1987 and 2001, respectively, was observed. A dependence of the quasi-stationary wave ridge and trough positions on the strength of the westerly zonal wind in the lower stratosphere is shown. Comparison of the QSW amplitude in the lower stratosphere temperature in July and August shows that the amplitude distribution with latitude in August could be considered as a possible indication of the future anomalous warming in Antarctic spring. In August 2002, the QSW amplitude of 10 K at the edge region of the polar vortex (60° S–65° S) preceded the major warming in September, whereas in August 1988, the highest 7 K amplitude at 55° S preceded the large warming in the next months. These results suggest that the peak value of the lower stratosphere temperature QSW amplitude and the peak latitudinal position in late winter can influence the southern polar vortex strength in spring.

The quasi-stationary pattern of the Antarctic total ozone has changed during the last 4 decades, showing an eastward shift in the zonal ozone minimum. In this work, the association between the longitudinal shift of the zonal ozone minimum and changes in meteorological fields in austral spring (September–November) for 1979–2014 is analyzed using ERA-Interim and NCEP–NCAR reanalyses. Regressive, correlative and anomaly composite analyses are applied to reanalysis data. Patterns of the Southern Annular Mode and quasi-stationary zonal waves 1 and 3 in the meteorological fields show relationships with interannual variability in the longitude of the zonal ozone minimum. On decadal timescales, consistent longitudinal shifts of the zonal ozone minimum and zonal wave 3 pattern in the middle-troposphere temperature at the southern midlatitudes are shown. Attribution runs of the chemistry–climate version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-CCM) model suggest that long-term shifts of the zonal ozone minimum are separately contributed by changes in ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. As is known, Antarctic ozone depletion in spring is strongly projected on the Southern Annular Mode in summer and impacts summertime surface climate across the Southern Hemisphere. The results of this study suggest that changes in zonal ozone asymmetry accompanying ozone depletion could be associated with regional climate changes in the Southern Hemisphere in spring.