The level of quasi-stationary planetary wave (QSW) activity in the Antarctic winter stratosphere provides insights into the likely behaviour of the ozone hole in the following spring months. Observation of anomalously large amplitude of the QSW in winter stratospheric temperatures is an indicator that strong disturbances to the polar vortex are likely to occur, and may lead to large reductions in both the area of the Antarctic ozone hole and the overall amount of stratospheric ozone that is depleted. In the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) preconditions in 2019, the maximum QSW amplitude over Antarctica in August was approximately 12 K, which was only 2 K less than conditions prior to the unprecedented major SSW in 2002. The additional factors disturbing the Antarctic stratosphere in austral winter 2019 were anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and the western Indian Ocean, and the descending easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. Under these preconditions, the Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 had the potential to demonstrate the early disruption and reduced level of the ozone depletion that has been confirmed by the satellite ozone observations. The anomalous ozone hole may also have important regional consequences for weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.

In this paper, a comparison of the impact of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Arctic in February 2018 (SSW1) and January 2019 (SSW2) on the mid-latitude mesosphere is given. The mesospheric carbon monoxide (CO) and zonal wind in these two major SSW events were observed at altitudes of 70–85 km using a microwave radiometer (MWR) at Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0°N, 36.3°E). Data from ERA-Interim and MERRA-2 reanalyses and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder measurements were also used. It is shown that: (i) The differences between SSW1 and SSW2, in terms of local variability in zonal wind, temperature, and CO in the stratosphere and mesosphere, were clearly defined by the polar vortex (westerly in cyclonic circulation) and mid-latitude anticyclone (easterly) migrating over the MWR station, therefore; (ii) mesospheric intrusions of CO-rich air into the stratosphere over the Kharkiv region occurred only occasionally, (iii) the larger zonal wave 1–3 amplitudes before SSW1 were followed by weaker polar vortex recovery than that after SSW2, (iv) the strong vortex recovery after SSW2 was supported by earlier event timing (midwinter) favoring vortex cooling due to low solar irradiance and enhanced zonal circulation, and (v) vortex strengthening after SSW2 was accompanied by wave 1–3 amplification in March 2019, which was absent after SSW1. Finally, the influence of the large-scale circulation structures formed in individual major SSW events on the locally recorded characteristics of the atmosphere is discussed.

The planetary wave activity in the stratosphere–mesosphere during the Arctic major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February 2018 is discussed on the basis of microwave radiometer (MWR) measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0° N, 36.3° E) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of CO, temperature and geopotential heights. From the MLS data, eastward and westward migrations of wave 1/wave 2 spectral components were differentiated, to which less attention was paid in previous studies. Abrupt changes in zonal wave spectra occurred with the zonal wind reversal near 10 February 2018. Eastward wave 1 and wave 2 were observed before the SSW onset and disappeared during the SSW event, when westward wave 1 became dominant. Wavelet power spectra of mesospheric CO variations showed statistically significant periods of 20–30 days using both MWR and MLS data. Although westward wave 1 in the mesosphere dominated with the onset of the SSW 2018, it developed independently of stratospheric dynamics. Since the propagation of upward planetary waves was limited in the easterly zonal flow in the stratosphere during SSW, forced planetary waves in the mid-latitude mesosphere may exist due to the instability of the zonal flow.

The 11-year solar activity cycle in the vertical ozone distribution over the Antarctic station Faraday/Vernadsky in the Antarctic Peninsula region (65.25° S, 64.27° W) was analyzed using the Solar Backscatter Ultra Violet (SBUV) radiometer data Version 8.6 Merged Ozone Data Sets (MOD) over the 40-year period 1979–2018. The SBUV MOD ozone profiles are presented as partial column ozone in layers with approximately 3-km altitude increments from the surface to the lower mesosphere (1000–0.1 hPa, or 0–64 km). Periodicities in the ozone time series of the layer data were studied using wavelet transforms. A statistically significant signal with a quasi-11-year period consistent with solar activity forcing was found in the lower–middle stratosphere at 22–31 km in ozone over Faraday/Vernadsky, although signals with similar periods were not significant in the total column measurements made by the Dobson spectrophotometer at the site. For comparison with other latitudinal zones, the relative contribution of the wavelet spectral power of the quasi-11-year periods to the 2–33-year period range on the global scale was estimated. While a significant solar activity signal exists in the tropical lower and upper stratosphere and in the lower mesosphere in SBUV MOD, we did not find evidence of similar signals in the ozone forcing data for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In the extratropical lower–middle stratosphere and lower mesosphere, there is a strong hemispheric asymmetry in solar activity–ozone response, which is dominant in the Southern Hemisphere. In general, the results are consistent with other studies and highlight the sensitivity of ozone in the lower–middle stratosphere over the Antarctic Peninsula region to the 11-year solar cycle.

The aim of this work is to study the zonally asymmetric stratopause that occurred in the Arctic winter of 2019/2020, when the polar vortex was particularly strong and there was no sudden stratospheric warming. Aura Microwave Limb Sounder temperature data were used to analyze the evolution of the stratopause with a particular focus on its zonally asymmetric wave 1 pattern. There was a rapid descent of the stratopause height below 50 km in the anticyclone region in mid-December 2019. The descended stratopause persisted until mid-January 2020 and was accompanied by a slow descent of the higher stratopause in the vortex region. The results show that the stratopause in this event was inclined and lowered from the mesosphere in the polar vortex to the stratosphere in the anticyclone. It was found that the vertical amplification of wave 1 between 50 km and 60 km closely coincides in time with the rapid stratopause descent in the anticyclone. Overall, the behavior contrasts with the situation during sudden stratospheric warmings when the stratopause reforms at higher altitudes following wave amplification events. We link the mechanism responsible for coupling between the vertical wave 1 amplification and this form of zonally asymmetric stratopause descent to the unusual disruption of the quasi-biennial oscillation that occurred in late 2019.

The planetary wave activity in the stratosphere–mesosphere during the Arctic major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in February 2018 is discussed on the basis of the microwave radiometer (MWR) measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) above Kharkiv, Ukraine (50.0° N, 36.3° E) and the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements of CO, temperature and geopotential heights. From the MLS data, eastward and westward migrations of wave 1/wave 2 spectral components were differentiated, to which less attention was paid in previous studies. Abrupt changes in zonal wave spectra occur with the zonal wind reversal near 10 February 2018. Eastward wave 1 and wave 2, observed before the SSW onset, disappear during the SSW event, when westward wave 1 becomes dominant. Wavelet power spectra of mesospheric CO variations show statistically significant periods in a band of 20–30 days using both MWR and MLS data. Approximately 10-day periods appear only after the SSW onset. Since the propagation of upward planetary waves is limited in the easterly zonal flow in the stratosphere after the zonal wind reversal during SSW, forced planetary waves in the mid-latitude mesosphere may exist due to the instability of the zonal flow.