Every spring, ranchers in the drought‐prone U.S. Great Plains face the same difficult challenge—trying to estimate how much forage will be available for livestock to graze during the upcoming summer grazing season. To reduce this uncertainty in predicting forage availability, we developed an innovative new grassland productivity forecast system, named Grass‐Cast, to provide science‐informed estimates of growing season aboveground net primary production (ANPP). Grass‐Cast uses over 30 yr of historical data including weather and the satellite‐derived normalized vegetation difference index (NDVI)—combined with ecosystem modeling and seasonal precipitation forecasts—to predict if rangelands in individual counties are likely to produce below‐normal, near‐normal, or above‐normal amounts of grass biomass (lbs/ac). Grass‐Cast also provides a view of rangeland productivity in the broader region, to assist in larger‐scale decision‐making—such as where forage resources for grazing might be more plentiful if a rancher’s own region is at risk of drought. Grass‐Cast is updated approximately every two weeks from April through July. Each Grass‐Cast forecast provides three scenarios of ANPP for the upcoming growing season based on different precipitation outlooks. Near real‐time 8‐d NDVI can be used to supplement Grass‐Cast in predicting cumulative growing season NDVI and ANPP starting in mid‐April for the Southern Great Plains and mid‐May to early June for the Central and Northern Great Plains. Here, we present the scientific basis and methods for Grass‐Cast along with the county‐level production forecasts from 2017 and 2018 for ten states in the U.S. Great Plains. The correlation between early growing season forecasts and the end‐of‐growing season ANPP estimate is >50% by late May or early June. In a retrospective evaluation, we compared Grass‐Cast end‐of‐growing season ANPP results to an independent dataset and found that the two agreed 69% of the time over a 20‐yr period. Although some predictive tools exist for forecasting upcoming growing season conditions, none predict actual productivity for the entire Great Plains. The Grass‐Cast system could be adapted to predict grassland ANPP outside of the Great Plains or to predict perennial biofuel grass production.

Soil erosion by water and wind in US rangelands has serious implications for rangeland health and food security and poses significant hazards to human health and communities. Accordingly, understanding how future climate change may impact soil erosion is critical for developing appropriate management strategies that mitigate negative impacts to the extent practical and potentially build resilience. Here, we review potential impacts of climate change on controls of erosion in US rangelands and discuss potential erosion responses. Projected climate changes are expected to have regionally variable effects on important controls of erosion, especially vegetation cover; community composition; frequency, magnitude, and geographical range of fire disturbance; and high intensity, erosive weather events, all of which have the potential to increase rangeland vulnerability to erosion. We identify knowledge gaps relevant to these controls and discuss management considerations to address climate change impacts to soil erosion concerns for US rangelands. In order to improve resilience and the efficacy of climate change adaptation, we recommend that existing monitoring data be used to create assessments of vulnerability, that soil erosion should be explicitly included in management benchmarks and decision support tools, and that no-regrets management options be implemented in anticipation of future impacts.