Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.

A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.

The efficiency of transfer of gases and particles across the air-sea interface is controlled by several physical, biological and chemical processes in the atmosphere and water which are described here (including waves, large- and small-scale turbulence, bubbles, sea spray, rain and surface films). For a deeper understanding of relevant transport mechanisms, several models have been developed, ranging from conceptual models to numerical models. Most frequently the transfer is described by various functional dependencies of the wind speed, but more detailed descriptions need additional information. The study of gas transfer mechanisms uses a variety of experimental methods ranging from laboratory studies to carbon budgets, mass balance methods, micrometeorological techniques and thermographic techniques. Different methods resolve the transfer at different scales of time and space; this is important to take into account when comparing different results. Air-sea transfer is relevant in a wide range of applications, for example, local and regional fluxes, global models, remote sensing and computations of global inventories. The sensitivity of global models to the description of transfer velocity is limited; it is however likely that the formulations are more important when the resolution increases and other processes in models are improved. For global flux estimates using inventories or remote sensing products the accuracy of the transfer formulation as well as the accuracy of the wind field is crucial.

Fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) from lakes may have a large impact on the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Traditionally lake fluxes have been measured using the floating chamber (FC) technique; however, several recent studies use the eddy covariance (EC) method. We present simultaneous flux measurements using both methods at lake Tämnaren in Sweden during field campaigns in 2011 and 2012. Only very few similar studies exist. For CO2 flux, the two methods agree relatively well during some periods, but deviate substantially at other times. The large discrepancies might be caused by heterogeneity of partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2w) in the EC flux footprint. The methods agree better for CH4 fluxes. It is, however, clear that short-term discontinuous FC measurements are likely to miss important high flux events.

A high‐resolution coupled ocean‐wave‐atmosphere model (Uppsala University Coupled model, UU‐CM) of the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with improved representation of ocean‐wave‐atmosphere interaction processes is presented. In the UU‐CM model, the stress on the air‐sea interface is estimated as a balance of four stress terms, that is, the air‐side stress, ocean‐side stress, wave‐supported stress (absorption of momentum by the wave field), and the momentum flux from waves to currents (breaking waves). The vector differences between these four stress terms are considered in the coupled system. The turbulent kinetic energy flux induced by wave breaking, the Stokes‐Coriolis force and the Stokes drift material advection terms are added to the ocean circulation model component. Based on two‐month‐long (January and July) simulations, we find that the ocean‐wave‐atmosphere coupling has a significant influence on coastal areas. The coupled system captures the influence of surface currents and local systems such as coastal upwelling and their impact on the atmosphere. The wave‐current interaction enhances the upper ocean mixing and reduces the sea surface temperature in July significantly. However, the pattern of the wave‐current processes influences on the ocean current and waves are complex due to the stress differences in both magnitude and direction.

Nonlinear responses to externally forced climate change are known to dampen or amplify the local climate impact due to complex cross-compartmental feedback loops in the Earth system. These feedbacks are less well represented in the traditional stand-alone atmosphere and ocean models on which many of today's regional climate assessments rely (e.g., EURO-CORDEX, NOSCCA and BACC II). This has promoted the development of regional climate models for the Baltic Sea region by coupling different compartments of the Earth system into more comprehensive models. Coupled models more realistically represent feedback loops than the information imposed on the region by prescribed boundary conditions and, thus, permit more degrees of freedom. In the past, several coupled model systems have been developed for Europe and the Baltic Sea region. This article reviews recent progress on model systems that allow two-way communication between atmosphere and ocean models; models for the land surface, including the terrestrial biosphere; and wave models at the air–sea interface and hydrology models for water cycle closure. However, several processes that have mostly been realized by one-way coupling to date, such as marine biogeochemistry, nutrient cycling and atmospheric chemistry (e.g., aerosols), are not considered here. In contrast to uncoupled stand-alone models, coupled Earth system models can modify mean near-surface air temperatures locally by up to several degrees compared with their stand-alone atmospheric counterparts using prescribed surface boundary conditions. The representation of small-scale oceanic processes, such as vertical mixing and sea-ice dynamics, appears essential to accurately resolve the air–sea heat exchange over the Baltic Sea, and these parameters can only be provided by online coupled high-resolution ocean models. In addition, the coupling of wave models at the ocean–atmosphere interface allows for a more explicit formulation of small-scale to microphysical processes with local feedbacks to water temperature and large-scale processes such as oceanic upwelling. Over land, important climate feedbacks arise from dynamical terrestrial vegetation changes as well as the implementation of land-use scenarios and afforestation/deforestation that further alter surface albedo, roughness length and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, a good representation of surface temperatures and roughness length over open sea and land areas is critical for the representation of climatic extremes such as heavy precipitation, storms, or tropical nights (defined as nights where the daily minimum temperature does not fall below 20 ^∘C), and these parameters appear to be sensitive to coupling. For the present-day climate, many coupled atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land surface models have demonstrated the added value of single climate variables, in particular when low-quality boundary data were used in the respective stand-alone model. This makes coupled models a prospective tool for downscaling climate change scenarios from global climate models because these models often have large biases on the regional scale. However, the coupling of hydrology models to close the water cycle remains problematic, as the accuracy of precipitation provided by atmosphere models is, in most cases, insufficient to realistically simulate the runoff to the Baltic Sea without bias adjustments. Many regional stand-alone ocean and atmosphere models are tuned to suitably represent present-day climatologies rather than to accurately simulate climate change. Therefore, more research is required into how the regional climate sensitivity (e.g., the models' response to a given change in global mean temperature) is affected by coupling and how the spread is altered in multi-model and multi-scenario ensembles of coupled models compared with uncoupled ones.