Based on the high‐resolution gridding data (CN05) from 2416 station observations, a grid dataset of temperature and precipitation extreme indices with the resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° for China region was developed using the approach recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices. This article comprehensively presents temporal and spatial changes of these indices for the time period 1961–2010. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes consistent with warming, for instance, decreases in cold extremes and increases in warm extremes over China. The warming in the coldest day and night is larger than the warmest day and night, respectively, which is concurrent with the coldest night larger than the coldest day and the warmest night larger than the warmest day. Changes in the number of the cold and warm nights are more remarkable than the cold and warm days. Changes in precipitation extremes are, in general, spatially more complex and exhibit a less widespread spatial coverage than the temperature indices, for instance, the patterns of annual total precipitation amount, average daily precipitation rate, and the proportion of heavy precipitation in total annual precipitation are similar with negative trends in a southwest–northeast belt from Southwest China to Northeast China while positive trends in eastern China and northwestern China. The consistency of changes in climate extremes from the CN05 with other datasets based on the stations and reanalyses is also analysed.
30 January 2017 in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Based on the Gini-coefficients, this study has presented an analysis of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on the temporal inequality (i.e., increase in unevenness or disparity) of precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), intensity (SDII), and extremes (R95p and RX5day) at national and regional scales (eight regions) in China. A positive anthropogenic influence on the temporal inequality is found for precipitation extremes over China, especially in southern regions during the period 1961–2005. Projections of future precipitation indices except R95p have a stepped upward trend in temporal precipitation variability with increasing anthropogenic forcing in most regions of China under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Except for Southern China (SC) and SWC2, R95p has a significant decrease in the future, and the largest decrease is up to 29.5% in Northwest China under SSP370. Results obtained from this study offer insights into temporal variability of precipitation extremes and help policy makers for managing water-related disasters.
Using station data and Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulations under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, this article addresses historical and future changes of the wintertime snowfall over China. The observational results generally show a decrease in the frequency and an increase in the mean intensity of snowfalls in northwestern China (NWC), northeastern China (NEC), the eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP), and southeastern China (SEC) since the 1960s. The total amount of wintertime snowfall, however, has increased in NWC, NEC, and ETP but decreased in SEC. The decrease in snow days is primarily due to the reduction of light snowfall events. The increase in the total amount is primarily explained by increases in heavy snowfalls, and the corresponding decrease is the result of decreases in light-to-heavy snowfalls. The RegCM4 ensemble, which can well simulate the observed snowfall climatology, projects that the snow days will be further reduced by the end of the twenty-first century relative to 1986–2005, primarily owing to the decline of light snowfall events. The total amount is projected to increase in NWC but decrease in the other three subregions. The increase in the total amount in NWC is attributed to increases in heavy and large snowfalls. Decreases in light snowfalls play a leading role in the decrease of the total amount in NEC. In ETP and SEC, the decrease in the total amount is the result of overall decreases in light-to-heavy snowfalls. The mechanism for such changes is an interesting topic to study in the future.
This research focuses on evaluating the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) simulations within the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 (CMIP6). We used seven of its consortiums to study how CMIP6 reproduced the West African precipitation features during the 1950–2014 historical simulation periods. The rainfall event was studied for two sub-regions of West Africa, the Sahel and the Guinea Coast. Precipitation datasets from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS v4.03, University of Delaware (UDEL) v5.01, and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) were used as observational references with the aim of accounting for uncertainty. The observed annual peak during August, which is greater than 200, 25, and 100 mm/month in the Guinea Coast, the Sahel, and West Africa as a whole, respectively, appears to be slightly underestimated by some of the models and the ensemble mean, although all the models captured the general rainfall pattern. Global climate models (GCMs) and the ensemble mean reproduced the spatial daily pattern of precipitation in the monsoon season (from June to September) over West Africa, with a high correlation coefficient exceeding 0.8 for the mean field and a relatively lower correlation coefficient for extreme events. Individual models, such as IPSL and ECMWF, tend to show high performance, but the ensemble mean appears to outperform all other models in reproducing West African precipitation features. The result from this study shows that merely improving the horizontal resolution may not remove biases from CMIP6.