The British grocery retail sector is experiencing rapid growth in online ordering for home delivery, resulting in considerable supply side investment in delivery and fulfilment infrastructure. For retailers with a physical store network, investments typically utilise larger format stores as delivery and fulfilment hubs. Proximity to the store network and delivery infrastructure capacity thus drive the availability and choice of online groceries provider at the neighbourhood level. We aim to assess the geographical extent of online groceries coverage at a small-area level in Great Britain (GB). We carry out a nationwide assessment of the provision of online groceries, revealing generally excellent coverage within urban and suburban areas, including those neighbourhoods that may have once been considered urban food deserts. However, rural–urban inequalities are evident, with the most remote and rural catchments experiencing comparatively poor online groceries provision. We argue that these inequalities give rise to a new form of food desert: remote and rural neighbourhoods with the compounded effects of poor access to physical retail provision (akin to ‘traditional’ food deserts) and the additional disadvantage of poor coverage by online groceries providers. Many of these neighbourhoods are already the most remote from physical store provision and may also be faced with withdrawal of physical (retail) services. We make a number of recommendations that could support the provision of online groceries services in these areas and reflect on the tremendous potential for ongoing research into widening inequalities in access to grocery retailing driven by the geography of online groceries.

We assess the geographical accessibility of COVID-19 vaccination sites—including mass vaccination centers and community-level provision—in England utilizing open data from NHS England and detailed routing data from HERE Technologies. We aim to uncover inequity in vaccination site accessibility, highlighting small-area inequality hidden by coverage figures released by the NHS. Vaccination site accessibility measures are constructed at a neighborhood level using indicators of journey time by private and public transport. We identify inequity in vaccination-site accessibility at the neighborhood level, driven by region of residence, mode of transport (specifically availability of private transport), rural-urban geography and the availability of GP-led services. We find little evidence that accessibility to COVID-19 vaccination sites is related to underlying area-based deprivation. We highlight the importance of GP-led provision in maintaining access to vaccination services at a local level and reflect on this in the context of phase 3 of the COVID-19 vaccination programme (booster jabs) and other mass vaccination programmes.

Evolving consumer behaviours with regards to store and channel choice, shopping frequency, shopping mission and spending heighten the need for robust spatial modelling tools for use within retail analytics. In this paper, we report on collaboration with a major UK grocery retailer to assess the feasibility of modelling consumer store choice behaviours at the level of the individual consumer. We benefit from very rare access to our collaborating retailers’ customer data which we use to develop a proof-of-concept agent-based model (ABM). Utilising our collaborating retailers’ loyalty card database, we extract key consumer behaviours in relation to shopping frequency, mission, store choice and spending. We build these observed behaviours into our ABM, based on a simplified urban environment, calibrated and validated against observed consumer data. Our ABM is able to capture key spatiotemporal drivers of consumer store choice behaviour at the individual level. Our findings could afford new opportunities for spatial modelling within the retail sector, enabling the complexity of consumer behaviours to be captured and simulated within a novel modelling framework. We reflect on further model development required for use in a commercial context for location-based decision-making.

We explore the value of recently released workplace geographies and accompanying census-based workplace zone statistics (WZS) and an associated classification of workplace zones (COWZ). We consider how these data could support retailers in their operational and strategic decision-making, including the evaluation of retail demand and retail store performance in localities where trade is driven by non-residential demand. In collaboration with major UK grocery retailer The Co-operative Group we explore the relationship between workplace population composition and store trading characteristics using a series of case study stores within Inner London. We use empirical store trading data to identify store and product category level temporal sales fluctuations attributable to workplace populations. We also use census-derived flow data to identify the spatial origins of workplace population inflow. We identify that store performance exhibits characteristics attributable to demand driven by these populations. We conclude that workplace population geographies, WZS and the COWZ afford considerable potential for understanding drivers of store performance, observed store trading patterns and evaluation of retail store performance. We suggest that the next step is to build these populations and their micro geography spatial and temporal characteristics into predictive models and evaluate their potential for store performance evaluation and location-based store and network decision-making within this sector.