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The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is a water-scarce region with a dry, desert climate, yet flood-producing precipitation events and heat extremes lead to loss of life and damages to local infrastructure, property and economy. Due to its distinctive natural and man-made spatial features (e.g., coastal features, wadis, agricultural areas) studying changes in the mean climate and extreme events requires higher-resolution climate projections than those available from the current generation of Earth System Models. Here, a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model is used to downscale the middle of the 21st century (2041–2050) climate projections of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 and for a historical time period (2008–2017) focusing on two months (August and November) within KSA’s dry-hot and wet seasons, where extreme events have historically been observed more frequently. Downscaling of climate reanalysis is also performed for the historical time period (2008–2017) to evaluate the downscaling methodology. An increase in the intensity and frequency of precipitation events is found in August by mid-century, particularly along the mountainous western coast of KSA, suggesting potential for water harvesting. Conversely, the northern flank of the Empty Quarter experiences a noticeable reduction in mean and extreme precipitation rates during the wet season. Increasing August heat index is found to particularly make regional habitability difficult in Jeddah by mid-century.
Muge Komurcu; C. Schlosser; Ibtihal Alshehri; Tariq Alshahrani; Waleed Alhayaza; Adnan AlSaati; Kenneth Strzepek. Mid-Century Changes in the Mean and Extreme Climate in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Implications for Water Harvesting and Climate Adaptation. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1068 .
AMA StyleMuge Komurcu, C. Schlosser, Ibtihal Alshehri, Tariq Alshahrani, Waleed Alhayaza, Adnan AlSaati, Kenneth Strzepek. Mid-Century Changes in the Mean and Extreme Climate in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Implications for Water Harvesting and Climate Adaptation. Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (10):1068.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuge Komurcu; C. Schlosser; Ibtihal Alshehri; Tariq Alshahrani; Waleed Alhayaza; Adnan AlSaati; Kenneth Strzepek. 2020. "Mid-Century Changes in the Mean and Extreme Climate in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Implications for Water Harvesting and Climate Adaptation." Atmosphere 11, no. 10: 1068.
The adequacy of freshwater resources remains a critical challenge for a sustainable and growing society. We present a self-consistent risk-based assessment of water availability and use under future climate change and socioeconomic growth by midcentury across southern and eastern Asia (SEA). We employ large ensemble scenarios from an integrated modeling framework that are consistent across the spectrum of regional climate, population, and economic projections. We find socioeconomic growth contributes to an increase in water stress across the entire ensemble. However, climate change drives the ensemble central tendency toward an increase in water stress in China but a reduction in India, with a considerable spread across the ensemble. Nevertheless, the most deleterious unabated climate-change impact is a low probability but salient extreme increase in water stress over China and India. In these outcomes, annual withdrawals will routinely exceed water-storage capacity. A modest greenhouse gas mitigation pathway eliminates the likelihood of these extreme outcomes and also benefits hundreds of millions of people at risk to various levels of water stress increase. Over SEA we estimate an additional 200 million people under threat of facing at least heavily water-stressed conditions from climate change and socioeconomic growth, but the mitigation scenario reduces the additional population-under-threat by 30% (60 million). Nevertheless, there remains a 1-in-2 chance that 100 million people across SEA experience a 50% increase in water stress and a 1-in-10 chance they experience a doubling of water stress. Therefore, widespread adaptive measures may be required over the coming decades to meet these unavoidable risks in water shortfalls.
Xiang Gao; C Adam Schlosser; Charles Fant; Kenneth Strzepek. The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia. Environmental Research Letters 2018, 13, 064039 .
AMA StyleXiang Gao, C Adam Schlosser, Charles Fant, Kenneth Strzepek. The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia. Environmental Research Letters. 2018; 13 (6):064039.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXiang Gao; C Adam Schlosser; Charles Fant; Kenneth Strzepek. 2018. "The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia." Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 6: 064039.
This paper discusses the current literature on impacts and adaptation costs at the sectoral level. The focus is primarily the US, but includes examples on international applications that highlight key differences or other relevant demonstrations of method and data use. The paper provides an overall framework that addresses the components of economic impacts, including definitions of impacts, adaptation costs, and residual damages. The paper then focuses on understanding the current breadth and depth of the literature that exists to characterize what we know about economic sectors studied in the recent literature (agriculture, coastal resources, water resources, infrastructure, health, crime, energy, labor productivity, and ecosystems), how the methodologies differ, what the gaps and challenges are, and offers a sense of the impacts at the US national level. A new generation of impact studies, including the U.S. EPA’s ongoing Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project; the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 Working Group II report; the U.S. National Climate Assessment; and the Risky Business Project led by the Next Generation Foundation, provide the motivation for this review. These efforts, taken together, have advanced the state of US economic impact assessment work along two critical frontiers, both of which support benefit-cost analyses of climate change: assessment of the risk and economic consequences of extreme climatic events; and assessment of ecosystem effects. Yet, the latest work also highlights gaps in the lack of comprehensive sectoral coverage; more complete incorporation of adaptation opportunities in impact assessment; and critical cross- and multi-sectoral effects that remain poorly understood.
James E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek. State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States. ENERGYO 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleJames E. Neumann, Kenneth Strzepek. State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States. ENERGYO. 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJames E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek. 2018. "State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States." ENERGYO , no. : 1.
We present maize production in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study in the exploration of how uncertainties in global climate change, as reflected in projections from a range of climate model ensembles, influence climate impact assessments for agriculture. The crop model AquaCrop-OS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) was modified to run on a 2° × 2° grid and coupled to 122 climate model projections from multi-model ensembles for three emission scenarios (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 [CMIP3] SRES A1B and CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] scenarios 4.5 and 8.5) as well as two “within-model” ensembles (NCAR CCSM3 and ECHAM5/MPI-OM) designed to capture internal variability (i.e., uncertainty due to chaos in the climate system). In spite of high uncertainty, most notably in the high-producing semi-arid zones, we observed robust regional and sub-regional trends across all ensembles. In agreement with previous work, we project widespread yield losses in the Sahel region and Southern Africa, resilience in Central Africa, and sub-regional increases in East Africa and at the southern tip of the continent. Spatial patterns of yield losses corresponded with spatial patterns of aridity increases, which were explicitly evaluated. Internal variability was a major source of uncertainty in both within-model and between-model ensembles and explained the majority of the spatial distribution of uncertainty in yield projections. Projected climate change impacts on maize production in different regions and nations ranged from near-zero or positive (upper quartile estimates) to substantially negative (lower quartile estimates), highlighting a need for risk management strategies that are adaptive and robust to uncertainty.
Amy L. Dale; Charles W Fant; Kenneth Strzepek; Megan Jeramaz Lickley; Susan Solomon. Climate model uncertainty in impact assessments for agriculture: A multi-ensemble case study on maize in sub-Saharan Africa. Earth's Future 2017, 5, 337 -353.
AMA StyleAmy L. Dale, Charles W Fant, Kenneth Strzepek, Megan Jeramaz Lickley, Susan Solomon. Climate model uncertainty in impact assessments for agriculture: A multi-ensemble case study on maize in sub-Saharan Africa. Earth's Future. 2017; 5 (3):337-353.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAmy L. Dale; Charles W Fant; Kenneth Strzepek; Megan Jeramaz Lickley; Susan Solomon. 2017. "Climate model uncertainty in impact assessments for agriculture: A multi-ensemble case study on maize in sub-Saharan Africa." Earth's Future 5, no. 3: 337-353.
Climate change and freshwater quality are well-linked. Changes in climate result in changes in streamflow and rising water temperatures, which impact biochemical reaction rates and increase stratification in lakes and reservoirs. Using two water quality modeling systems (the Hydrologic and Water Quality System; HAWQS and US Basins), five climate models, and two greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, we assess future water quality in the continental U.S. to 2100 considering four water quality parameters: water temperature, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Once these parameters are aggregated into a water quality index, we find that, while the water quality models differ under the baseline, there is more agreement between future projections. In addition, we find that the difference in national-scale economic benefits across climate models is generally larger than the difference between the two water quality models. Both water quality models find that water quality will more likely worsen in the East than in the West. Under the business-as-usual emissions scenario, we find that climate change is likely to cause economic impacts ranging from 1.2 to 2.3 (2005 billion USD/year) in 2050 and 2.7 to 4.8 in 2090 across all climate and water quality models.
Charles Fant; Raghavan Srinivasan; Brent Boehlert; Lisa Rennels; Steven C. Chapra; Kenneth M. Strzepek; Joel Corona; Ashley Allen; Jeremy Martinich. Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality Using Two Models: HAWQS and US Basins. Water 2017, 9, 118 .
AMA StyleCharles Fant, Raghavan Srinivasan, Brent Boehlert, Lisa Rennels, Steven C. Chapra, Kenneth M. Strzepek, Joel Corona, Ashley Allen, Jeremy Martinich. Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality Using Two Models: HAWQS and US Basins. Water. 2017; 9 (2):118.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCharles Fant; Raghavan Srinivasan; Brent Boehlert; Lisa Rennels; Steven C. Chapra; Kenneth M. Strzepek; Joel Corona; Ashley Allen; Jeremy Martinich. 2017. "Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality Using Two Models: HAWQS and US Basins." Water 9, no. 2: 118.
Abdulaziz A. Alhassan; Alyssa McCluskey; Anas Alfaris; Kenneth Strzepek. Scenario Based Regional Water Supply and Demand Model: Saudi Arabia as a Case Study. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development 2016, 7, 46 -51.
AMA StyleAbdulaziz A. Alhassan, Alyssa McCluskey, Anas Alfaris, Kenneth Strzepek. Scenario Based Regional Water Supply and Demand Model: Saudi Arabia as a Case Study. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development. 2016; 7 (1):46-51.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbdulaziz A. Alhassan; Alyssa McCluskey; Anas Alfaris; Kenneth Strzepek. 2016. "Scenario Based Regional Water Supply and Demand Model: Saudi Arabia as a Case Study." International Journal of Environmental Science and Development 7, no. 1: 46-51.
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine the potential impact of climate change on the built environment in four Northern Asian countries. The impact on roads and buildings infrastructure in China, Japan, South Korea and Mongolia were considered during the decades 2030, 2050 and 2090. Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on a stressor-response approach, where using the analysis of 17 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios, projections for impacts from flooding events, precipitation amounts and temperature were determined. The cost of the impacts, based on both maintenance and new construction considerations, were then determined. “Adapt” and “No Adapt” scenarios were incorporated to predict potential costs in each era. Findings – Mongolia is vulnerable under the majority of scenarios and faces the greatest opportunity cost in terms of potential loss to enhancing the road stock. China is also vulnerable, but the extent of this vulnerability varies widely based on the climate scenarios. Japan is primarily vulnerable to road stock impacts, although some scenarios indicate buildings vulnerability. South Korea appears to have the least vulnerability but could still face $1 billion annual costs from climate change impacts. Practical implications – Results indicate the need for proactive policy planning to avoid costly impacts later in the century. Originality/value – The study illustrates the diverse affects that may occur under climate change scenarios and the potential benefit gained from understanding and planning for the projected climate impacts on the built environment.
Paul Chinowsky; Amy Schweikert; Gordon Hughes; Carolyn S. Hayles; Niko Strzepek; Kenneth Strzepek; Michael F Westphal. The impact of climate change on road and building infrastructure: a four-country study. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment 2015, 6, 382 -396.
AMA StylePaul Chinowsky, Amy Schweikert, Gordon Hughes, Carolyn S. Hayles, Niko Strzepek, Kenneth Strzepek, Michael F Westphal. The impact of climate change on road and building infrastructure: a four-country study. International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment. 2015; 6 (4):382-396.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Chinowsky; Amy Schweikert; Gordon Hughes; Carolyn S. Hayles; Niko Strzepek; Kenneth Strzepek; Michael F Westphal. 2015. "The impact of climate change on road and building infrastructure: a four-country study." International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment 6, no. 4: 382-396.
Mark Howells; Brent Boehlert; Brian Joyce; Oliver Broad; Vignesh Sridharan; David Groves; Kenneth M. Strzepek; Robert Lempert. Impacts of Climate Change on Infrastructure Performance. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors 2015, 85 -102.
AMA StyleMark Howells, Brent Boehlert, Brian Joyce, Oliver Broad, Vignesh Sridharan, David Groves, Kenneth M. Strzepek, Robert Lempert. Impacts of Climate Change on Infrastructure Performance. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors. 2015; ():85-102.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMark Howells; Brent Boehlert; Brian Joyce; Oliver Broad; Vignesh Sridharan; David Groves; Kenneth M. Strzepek; Robert Lempert. 2015. "Impacts of Climate Change on Infrastructure Performance." Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors , no. : 85-102.
Robert Lempert; Brent Boehlert; David Groves; James E. Neumann; Kenneth M. Strzepek; Oliver Broad; Vignesh Sridharan; Raffaello Cervigni. Adaptation to Climate Change in Infrastructure Planning. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors 2015, 103 -130.
AMA StyleRobert Lempert, Brent Boehlert, David Groves, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek, Oliver Broad, Vignesh Sridharan, Raffaello Cervigni. Adaptation to Climate Change in Infrastructure Planning. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors. 2015; ():103-130.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert Lempert; Brent Boehlert; David Groves; James E. Neumann; Kenneth M. Strzepek; Oliver Broad; Vignesh Sridharan; Raffaello Cervigni. 2015. "Adaptation to Climate Change in Infrastructure Planning." Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors , no. : 103-130.
Brent Boehlert; Kenneth M. Strzepek; David Groves; Bruce Hewitson; Chris Jack. Climate Change Projections in Africa. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors 2015, 59 -75.
AMA StyleBrent Boehlert, Kenneth M. Strzepek, David Groves, Bruce Hewitson, Chris Jack. Climate Change Projections in Africa. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors. 2015; ():59-75.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBrent Boehlert; Kenneth M. Strzepek; David Groves; Bruce Hewitson; Chris Jack. 2015. "Climate Change Projections in Africa." Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors , no. : 59-75.
Raffaello Cervigni; Rikard Liden; James E. Neumann; Kenneth M. Strzepek. Overview. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors 2015, 1 -23.
AMA StyleRaffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, James E. Neumann, Kenneth M. Strzepek. Overview. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors. 2015; ():1-23.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRaffaello Cervigni; Rikard Liden; James E. Neumann; Kenneth M. Strzepek. 2015. "Overview." Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors , no. : 1-23.
Kenneth M. Strzepek; Raffaello Cervigni; Rikard Liden; Robert Lempert; Mark Howells; David Purkey; Brent Boehlert; Yohannes Gebretsadik. Methodology. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors 2015, 37 -58.
AMA StyleKenneth M. Strzepek, Raffaello Cervigni, Rikard Liden, Robert Lempert, Mark Howells, David Purkey, Brent Boehlert, Yohannes Gebretsadik. Methodology. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors. 2015; ():37-58.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKenneth M. Strzepek; Raffaello Cervigni; Rikard Liden; Robert Lempert; Mark Howells; David Purkey; Brent Boehlert; Yohannes Gebretsadik. 2015. "Methodology." Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa's Infrastructure: The Power and Water Sectors , no. : 37-58.
Robert H Beach; Yongxia Cai; Allison Thomson; Xuesong Zhang; Russell Jones; Bruce A McCarl; Allison Crimmins; Jeremy Martinich; Jefferson Cole; Sara Ohrel; Benjamin DeAngelo; James McFarland; Kenneth Strzepek; Brent Boehlert. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization. Environmental Research Letters 2015, 10, 95004 .
AMA StyleRobert H Beach, Yongxia Cai, Allison Thomson, Xuesong Zhang, Russell Jones, Bruce A McCarl, Allison Crimmins, Jeremy Martinich, Jefferson Cole, Sara Ohrel, Benjamin DeAngelo, James McFarland, Kenneth Strzepek, Brent Boehlert. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization. Environmental Research Letters. 2015; 10 (9):95004.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert H Beach; Yongxia Cai; Allison Thomson; Xuesong Zhang; Russell Jones; Bruce A McCarl; Allison Crimmins; Jeremy Martinich; Jefferson Cole; Sara Ohrel; Benjamin DeAngelo; James McFarland; Kenneth Strzepek; Brent Boehlert. 2015. "Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization." Environmental Research Letters 10, no. 9: 95004.
Amy Schweikert; Paul Chinowsky; Kyle Kwiatkowski; Akash Johnson; Elizabeth Shilling; Kenneth Strzepek; Niko Strzepek. Road Infrastructure and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptations for South Africa. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 2015, 21, 04014046 .
AMA StyleAmy Schweikert, Paul Chinowsky, Kyle Kwiatkowski, Akash Johnson, Elizabeth Shilling, Kenneth Strzepek, Niko Strzepek. Road Infrastructure and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptations for South Africa. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 2015; 21 (3):04014046.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAmy Schweikert; Paul Chinowsky; Kyle Kwiatkowski; Akash Johnson; Elizabeth Shilling; Kenneth Strzepek; Niko Strzepek. 2015. "Road Infrastructure and Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptations for South Africa." Journal of Infrastructure Systems 21, no. 3: 04014046.
Many residents of the Zambezi River Valley are dependent on water-related resources. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may cause a significant change to the climate in the Zambezi Basin in the future, but there is much uncertainty about the future climate state. This situation leaves policy makers at a state of urgency to prepare for these changes as well as reduce the impacts of the changes through GHG mitigation strategies. First and foremost, we must better understand the economic sectors most likely impacted and the magnitude of those impacts, given the inherent uncertainty. In this study, we present a suite of models that assess the effects of climate change on water resources for four countries in the Zambezi basin: Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We use information from a large ensemble (6800) of climate scenarios for two GHG emission policies which represent a distribution of impacts on water-related sectors, considering emissions uncertainty, climate sensitivity uncertainty, and regional climate uncertainty. Two GHG mitigation scenarios are used to understand the effect of global emissions reduction on the River Basin system out to 2050. Under both climate polices, the majority of the basin will likely be drier, except for a portion in the north around Malawi and northern Zambia. Three Key Performance Indicators are used—flood occurrence, unmet irrigation demand, and hydropower generation—to understand the impact channels of climate change effects on the four countries. We find that floods are likely to be worse in Mozambique, irrigation demands are likely to be unmet in Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and hydropower generation is likely to be reduced in Zambia. We also find that the range of possible impacts is much larger under an unconstrained GHG emissions case than under a strict mitigation strategy, suggesting that GHG mitigation would reduce uncertainties about the future climate state, reducing the risks of extreme changes as compared to the unconstrained emissions case.
Charles Fant; Yohannes Gebretsadik; Alyssa McCluskey; Kenneth Strzepek. An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin. Climatic Change 2015, 130, 35 -48.
AMA StyleCharles Fant, Yohannes Gebretsadik, Alyssa McCluskey, Kenneth Strzepek. An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin. Climatic Change. 2015; 130 (1):35-48.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCharles Fant; Yohannes Gebretsadik; Alyssa McCluskey; Kenneth Strzepek. 2015. "An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin." Climatic Change 130, no. 1: 35-48.
This paper discusses the current literature on impacts and adaptation costs at the sectoral level. The focus is primarily the US, but includes examples on international applications that highlight key differences or other relevant demonstrations of method and data use. The paper provides an overall framework that addresses the components of economic impacts, including definitions of impacts, adaptation costs, and residual damages. The paper then focuses on understanding the current breadth and depth of the literature that exists to characterize what we know about economic sectors studied in the recent literature (agriculture, coastal resources, water resources, infrastructure, health, crime, energy, labor productivity, and ecosystems), how the methodologies differ, what the gaps and challenges are, and offers a sense of the impacts at the US national level. A new generation of impact studies, including the U.S. EPA’s ongoing Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project; the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 Working Group II report; the U.S. National Climate Assessment; and the Risky Business Project led by the Next Generation Foundation, provide the motivation for this review. These efforts, taken together, have advanced the state of US economic impact assessment work along two critical frontiers, both of which support benefit-cost analyses of climate change: assessment of the risk and economic consequences of extreme climatic events; and assessment of ecosystem effects. Yet, the latest work also highlights gaps in the lack of comprehensive sectoral coverage; more complete incorporation of adaptation opportunities in impact assessment; and critical cross- and multi-sectoral effects that remain poorly understood.
James E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek. State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 2014, 5, 411 -443.
AMA StyleJames E. Neumann, Kenneth Strzepek. State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis. 2014; 5 (3):411-443.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJames E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek. 2014. "State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States." Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 5, no. 3: 411-443.
Climate change impacts on water resources in the United States are likely to be far-reaching and substantial because the water is integral to climate, and the water sector spans many parts of the economy. This paper estimates impacts and damages from five water resource-related models addressing runoff, drought risk, economics of water supply/demand, water stress, and flooding damages. The models differ in the water system assessed, spatial scale, and unit of assessment, but together provide a quantitative and descriptive richness in characterizing water sector effects that no single model can capture. The results, driven by a consistent set of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and climate scenarios, examine uncertainty from emissions, climate sensitivity, and climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding patterns of change and benefits of GHG mitigation. Four key findings emerge: 1) GHG mitigation substantially reduces hydro-climatic impacts on the water sector; 2) GHG mitigation provides substantial national economic benefits in water resources related sectors; 3) the models show a strong signal of wetting for the Eastern US and a strong signal of drying in the Southwest; and 4) unmanaged hydrologic systems impacts show strong correlation with the change in magnitude and direction of precipitation and temperature from climate models, but managed water resource systems and regional economic systems show lower correlation with changes in climate variables due to non-linearities created by water infrastructure and the socio-economic changes in non-climate driven water demand.
Kenneth Strzepek; James E Neumann; John R Smith; Jeremy Martinich; Brent Boehlert; Mohamad Hejazi; Jennifer A Henderson; C W Wobus; R J Jones; Katherine Calvin; David M Johnson; Erwan Monier; J.-H. Yoon. Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States. Climatic Change 2014, 131, 127 -141.
AMA StyleKenneth Strzepek, James E Neumann, John R Smith, Jeremy Martinich, Brent Boehlert, Mohamad Hejazi, Jennifer A Henderson, C W Wobus, R J Jones, Katherine Calvin, David M Johnson, Erwan Monier, J.-H. Yoon. Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States. Climatic Change. 2014; 131 (1):127-141.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKenneth Strzepek; James E Neumann; John R Smith; Jeremy Martinich; Brent Boehlert; Mohamad Hejazi; Jennifer A Henderson; C W Wobus; R J Jones; Katherine Calvin; David M Johnson; Erwan Monier; J.-H. Yoon. 2014. "Benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation on the supply, management, and use of water resources in the United States." Climatic Change 131, no. 1: 127-141.
Nicolas Ahouissoussi; James E. Neumann; Cüneyt Okan; Brent Boehlert; Kenneth Strzepek. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options 2014, 1 .
AMA StyleNicolas Ahouissoussi, James E. Neumann, Cüneyt Okan, Brent Boehlert, Kenneth Strzepek. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options. 2014; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNicolas Ahouissoussi; James E. Neumann; Cüneyt Okan; Brent Boehlert; Kenneth Strzepek. 2014. "Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options." Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options , no. : 1.
James E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek; Brent Boehlert. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in the South Caucausus Region. Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture 2014, 117 -126.
AMA StyleJames E. Neumann, Kenneth Strzepek, Brent Boehlert. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in the South Caucausus Region. Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture. 2014; ():117-126.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJames E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek; Brent Boehlert. 2014. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in the South Caucausus Region." Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture , no. : 117-126.
Brent Boehlert; James E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek; Peter Droogers; Stephen Sharrow. Georgia: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menu. Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture 2014, 91 -116.
AMA StyleBrent Boehlert, James E. Neumann, Kenneth Strzepek, Peter Droogers, Stephen Sharrow. Georgia: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menu. Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture. 2014; ():91-116.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBrent Boehlert; James E. Neumann; Kenneth Strzepek; Peter Droogers; Stephen Sharrow. 2014. "Georgia: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menu." Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture , no. : 91-116.