Drought risk assessment can identify high‐risk areas and bridge the gap between impacts and adaptation. It is thus vital to investigate changes in drought risk and exposed social economy under climate change. Here, the future global meteorological drought risk is projected for the 2021–2100 period under four combined scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5. And then the exposed population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under high risk are analyzed. Drought risk will further strengthen in the future under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, with large increases distributed in South Asia, the Mediterranean, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America. The strongest increasing trends in drought risk are concentrated in equatorial regions including South Asia, West Africa, and Central America. A large percentage of the population and economy are exposed to high drought risk. The exposed population under the highest risk level is the largest under SSP5‐8.5 and the smallest under SSP3‐7.0 for regions in North America, while being the largest under SSP3‐7.0 for other regions. The exposed GDP under the highest risk level is the highest under SSP5‐8.5 and the lowest under SSP3‐7.0, while the disparity among diverse scenarios is larger for the rich regions than the developing ones.
Measuring total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) is important in managing heavy polluted urban waters in China. This study uses high spatial resolution IKONOS imagery with four multispectral bands, which roughly correspond to Landsat/TM bands 1–4, to determine TN and TP in small urban rivers and lakes in China. By using Lake Cihu and the lower reaches of Wen-Rui Tang (WRT) River as examples, this paper develops both multiple linear regressions (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate TN and TP concentrations from high spatial resolution remote sensing imagery and in situ water samples collected concurrently with overpassing satellite. The measured and estimated values of both MLR and ANN models are in good agreement (R2 > 0.85 and RMSE < 2.50). The empirical equations selected by MLR are more straightforward, whereas the estimated accuracy using ANN model is better (R2 > 0.86 and RMSE < 0.89). Results validate the potential of using high resolution IKONOS multispectral imagery to study the chemical states of small-sized urban water bodies. The spatial distribution maps of TN and TP concentrations generated by the ANN model can inform the decision makers of variations in water quality in Lake Cihu and lower reaches of WRT River. The approaches and equations developed in this study could be applied to other urban water bodies for water quality monitoring.
6 January 2020 in Journal of Geographical Sciences