This study elucidates drought characteristics in China during 1980–2015 using two commonly used meteorological drought indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that SPEI characterizes an overall increase in drought severity, area, and frequency during 1998–2015 compared with those during 1980–97, mainly due to the increasing potential evapotranspiration. By contrast, SPI does not reveal this phenomenon since precipitation does not exhibit a significant change overall. We further identify individual drought events using the three-dimensional (i.e., longitude, latitude, and time) clustering algorithm and apply the severity–area–duration (SAD) method to examine the drought spatiotemporal dynamics. Compared to SPI, SPEI identifies a lower drought frequency but with larger total drought areas overall. Additionally, SPEI identifies a greater number of severe drought events but a smaller number of slight drought events than the SPI. Approximately 30% of SPI-detected drought grids are not identified as drought by SPEI, and 40% of SPEI-detected drought grids are not recognized as drought by SPI. Both indices can roughly capture the major drought events, but SPEI-detected drought events are overall more severe than SPI. From the SAD analysis, SPI tends to identify drought as more severe over small areas within 1 million km2 and short durations less than 2 months, whereas SPEI tends to delineate drought as more severe across expansive areas larger than 3 million km2 and periods longer than 3 months. Given the fact that potential evapotranspiration increases in a warming climate, this study suggests SPEI may be more suitable than SPI in monitoring droughts under climate change.
Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have received considerable attention in recent years due to their devastating effects on human society and ecosystem. In this study, we systematically investigated the changes of CDHW events in multi‐spatiotemporal scales for historical period (1951–2014) and four future scenarios (2020–2100) (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5) over global land by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. The responses of the CDHW events to the changes of maximum air temperature and the climatic water balance variable are also examined. The results show that the multi‐model ensembles project a significant increasing trend in CDHW characteristics over almost all global lands under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, especially across northern North‐America, Caribbean, Mediterranean and Russian‐Arctic, there is a stronger increasing trend. A significantly increasing CDHW risk will occur across most global land for the medium to long term future without aggressive adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results of path analysis suggest that temperature is the dominant factor influencing CDHW events. Additionally, higher sensitivity of CDHW events to global warming will occur in the future. Particularly, each 1°C global warming increases the duration of the CDHW events by 3 days in the historical period, but by about 10 days in the future period. Overall, this study improves our understanding in the projection of CDHW events and the impacts of climate drivers to the CDHW events under various future scenarios, which could provide supports about the risk assessment, adaptation and mitigation strategies under climate change.
1 October 2020 in Science of The Total Environment
Drought risk assessment can identify high‐risk areas and bridge the gap between impacts and adaptation. It is thus vital to investigate changes in drought risk and exposed social economy under climate change. Here, the future global meteorological drought risk is projected for the 2021–2100 period under four combined scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5. And then the exposed population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under high risk are analyzed. Drought risk will further strengthen in the future under SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, and SSP5‐8.5, with large increases distributed in South Asia, the Mediterranean, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America. The strongest increasing trends in drought risk are concentrated in equatorial regions including South Asia, West Africa, and Central America. A large percentage of the population and economy are exposed to high drought risk. The exposed population under the highest risk level is the largest under SSP5‐8.5 and the smallest under SSP3‐7.0 for regions in North America, while being the largest under SSP3‐7.0 for other regions. The exposed GDP under the highest risk level is the highest under SSP5‐8.5 and the lowest under SSP3‐7.0, while the disparity among diverse scenarios is larger for the rich regions than the developing ones.