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163, Seoulsiripdae-ro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Typhoons or mature tropical cyclones (TCs) can affect inland areas of up to hundreds of kilometers with heavy rains and strong winds, along with landslides causing numerous casualties and property damage due to concentrated precipitation over short time periods. To reduce these damages, it is necessary to accurately predict the rainfall induced by TCs in the western North Pacific Region. However, despite dramatic advances in observation and numerical modeling, the accuracy of prediction of typhoon-induced rainfall and spatial distribution remains limited. The present study offers a statistical approach to predicting the accumulated rainfall associated with typhoons based on a historical storm track and intensity data along with observed rainfall data for 55 typhoons affecting the southeastern coastal areas of China from 1961 to 2017. This approach is shown to provide an average root mean square error of 51.2 mm across 75 meteorological stations in the southeast coastal area of China (ranging from 15.8 to 87.3 mm). Moreover, the error is less than 70 mm for most stations, and significantly lower in the three verification cases, thus demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. Furthermore, the use of fuzzy C-means clustering, ensemble averaging, and corrections to typhoon intensities, can provide more accurate rainfall predictions from the method applied herein, thus allowing for improvements to disaster preparedness and emergency response.
Jong-Suk Kim; Anxiang Chen; Junghwan Lee; Il-Ju Moon; Young-Il Moon. Statistical Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall over China Using Historical Rainfall, Tracks, and Intensity of Typhoon in the Western North Pacific. Remote Sensing 2020, 12, 4133 .
AMA StyleJong-Suk Kim, Anxiang Chen, Junghwan Lee, Il-Ju Moon, Young-Il Moon. Statistical Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall over China Using Historical Rainfall, Tracks, and Intensity of Typhoon in the Western North Pacific. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12 (24):4133.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJong-Suk Kim; Anxiang Chen; Junghwan Lee; Il-Ju Moon; Young-Il Moon. 2020. "Statistical Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall over China Using Historical Rainfall, Tracks, and Intensity of Typhoon in the Western North Pacific." Remote Sensing 12, no. 24: 4133.
The flood forecasting and warning system enable an advanced warning of flash floods and inundation depths for disseminating alarms in urban areas. Therefore, in this study, we developed an integrated flood forecasting and warning system combined inland-river that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting in urban areas. LSTM was used to predict the stream depth in the short-term inundation prediction. Moreover, rainfall prediction by radar data, a rainfall-runoff model combined inland-river by coupled SWMM and HEC-RAS, automatic simplification module of drainage networks, automatic calibration module of SWMM parameter by Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) algorithm, and 2-dimension inundation database were used in very short-term inundation prediction to warn and convey the flood-related data and information to communities. The proposed system presented better forecasting results compared to the Seoul integrated disaster prevention system. It can provide an accurate water level for 30 min to 90 min lead times in the short-term inundation prediction module. And the very short-term inundation prediction module can provide water level across a stream for 10 min to 60 min lead times using forecasting rainfall by radar as well as inundation risk areas. In conclusion, the proposed modules were expected to be useful to support inundation forecasting and warning systems.
Jung Lee; Gi Yuk; Hyeon Moon; Young-Il Moon. Integrated Flood Forecasting and Warning System against Flash Rainfall in the Small-Scaled Urban Stream. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 971 .
AMA StyleJung Lee, Gi Yuk, Hyeon Moon, Young-Il Moon. Integrated Flood Forecasting and Warning System against Flash Rainfall in the Small-Scaled Urban Stream. Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (9):971.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJung Lee; Gi Yuk; Hyeon Moon; Young-Il Moon. 2020. "Integrated Flood Forecasting and Warning System against Flash Rainfall in the Small-Scaled Urban Stream." Atmosphere 11, no. 9: 971.