Despite the large number of recent advances and developments in landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) there is still a lack of studies focusing on specific aspects of LSM model sensitivity. For example, the influence of factors such as the survey scale of the landslide conditioning variables (LCVs), the resolution of the mapping unit (MUR) and the optimal number and ranking of LCVs have never been investigated analytically, especially on large data sets. In this paper we attempt this experimentation concentrating on the impact of model tuning choice on the final result, rather than on the comparison of methodologies. To this end, we adopt a simple implementation of the random forest (RF), a machine learning technique, to produce an ensemble of landslide susceptibility maps for a set of different model settings, input data types and scales. Random forest is a combination of Bayesian trees that relates a set of predictors to the actual landslide occurrence. Being it a nonparametric model, it is possible to incorporate a range of numerical or categorical data layers and there is no need to select unimodal training data as for example in linear discriminant analysis. Many widely acknowledged landslide predisposing factors are taken into account as mainly related to the lithology, the land use, the geomorphology, the structural and anthropogenic constraints. In addition, for each factor we also include in the predictors set a measure of the standard deviation (for numerical variables) or the variety (for categorical ones) over the map unit. As in other systems, the use of RF enables one to estimate the relative importance of the single input parameters and to select the optimal configuration of the classification model. The model is initially applied using the complete set of input variables, then an iterative process is implemented and progressively smaller subsets of the parameter space are considered. The impact of scale and accuracy of input variables, as well as the effect of the random component of the RF model on the susceptibility results, are also examined. The model is tested in the Arno River basin (central Italy). We find that the dimension of parameter space, the mapping unit (scale) and the training process strongly influence the classification accuracy and the prediction process. This, in turn, implies that a careful sensitivity analysis making use of traditional and new tools should always be performed before producing final susceptibility maps at all levels and scales.
Landslides are one of the most devastating and recurring natural disasters and have affected several mountainous regions across the globe. The Indian Himalayan region is no exception to landslide incidences affecting key economic sectors such as transportation and agriculture and often leading to loss of lives. As reflected in the global landslide dataset, most of the landslides in this region are rainfall triggered. The region is prone to 15% of the global rainfall-induced landslides, and thereby a review of the studies in the region is inevitable. The high exposure to landslide risk has made the Indian Himalayas receive growing attention by the landslides community. A review of landslides studies conducted in this region is therefore important to provide a general picture of the state-of-the-art, a reference point for researchers and practitioners working in this region for the first time, and a summary of the improvements most urgently needed to better address landslide hazard research and management. This article focuses on various studies ranging from forecasting and monitoring to hazard and susceptibility analysis. The various factors used to analyze landslide are also studied for various landslide zones in the region. The analysis reveals that there are several avenues where significant research work is needed such as the inclusion of climate change factors or the acquisition of basic data of highest quality to be used as input data for computational models. In addition, the review reveals that, despite the entire region being highly landslide prone, most of the studies have focused on few regions and large areas have been neglected. The aim of the review is to provide a reference for stakeholders and researchers who are currently or looking to work in the Indian Himalayas, to highlight the shortcomings and the points of strength of the research being conducted, and to provide a contribution in addressing the future developments most urgently needed to obtain a consistent advance in landslide risk reduction of the area.
This paper concerns a regional scale warning system for landslides that relies on a decisional algorithm based on the comparison between rainfall recordings and statistically defined thresholds. The latter were based on the total amount of rainfall, which was cumulated considering different time intervals: 1-, 2- and 3-day cumulates took into account the critical rainfall influencing shallow movements, whilst a variable time interval cumulate (up to 240 days) was used to consider the triggering of deep-seated landslides in low permeability terrains. A prototypal version of the model was initially set up to define statistical thresholds. Then, thresholds were calibrated using a database of past georegistered and dated landslides. A validation procedure showed that the calibration highly improves the results and therefore the model was integrated in the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna (Italy) for civil protection purposes. The proposed methodology could be easily implemented in other similar regions and countries where a sufficiently organised meteorological network is present.
The influence of vegetation on mechanical and hydrological soil behavior represents a significant factor to be considered in shallow landslides modelling. Among the multiple effects exerted by vegetation, root reinforcement is widely recognized as one of the most relevant for slope stability. Lately, the literature has been greatly enriched by novel research on this phenomenon. To investigate which aspects have been most treated, which results have been obtained and which aspects require further attention, we reviewed papers published during the period of 2015–2020 dealing with root reinforcement. This paper—after introducing main effects of vegetation on slope stability, recalling studies of reference—provides a synthesis of the main contributions to the subtopics: (i) approaches for estimating root reinforcement distribution at a regional scale; (ii) new slope stability models, including root reinforcement and (iii) the influence of particular plant species, forest management, forest structure, wildfires and soil moisture gradient on root reinforcement. Including root reinforcement in slope stability analysis has resulted a topic receiving growing attention, particularly in Europe; in addition, research interests are also emerging in Asia. Despite recent advances, including root reinforcement into regional models still represents a research challenge, because of its high spatial and temporal variability: only a few applications are reported about areas of hundreds of square kilometers. The most promising and necessary future research directions include the study of soil moisture gradient and wildfire controls on the root strength, as these aspects have not been fully integrated into slope stability modelling.