Described is the second stage of the work (2011-2014) on the implementation and development of the COSMO-Ru system of nonhydrostatic short-range weather forecasting (the first stage of the implementation and development of the COSMO-Ru system is described in [7, 8]). Demonstrated is how the research activities and ideas of G.I. Marchuk influenced modern methods for solving the systems of differential equations that describe atmospheric processes (in particular, the version of the Marchuk’s splitting method is used to find the solution of the finite-difference analog of the system of differential equations in the COSMO-Ru model); it is shown how he contributed to the development of the methods of assimilation of meteorological information associated with the use of adjoint equations. Given is a brief description of the COSMO model of the atmosphere and soil active layer, the COSMO-Ru system, and research activities on this system development.

Effects of forest fires on regional weather conditions were analyzed for Central and Eastern Siberia after warm and dry weather conditions in summer 2019 using COSMO-Ru (COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling; Ru—Russia) and COSMO-RuART (ART—Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) model systems. Four series of numerical experiments were conducted (one control experiment and three forest fire experiments assuming total vegetation destruction within the burned areas) to evaluate possible effects of forest fires on surface albedo and vegetation properties as well as their influence on air chemistry and aerosol concentration in the atmosphere. The modeling results showed significant influence of forest fires on regional weather conditions that occurred over large areas situated even away from burnt regions. Decreased surface albedo and reduced latent heat fluxes due to fire-induced destruction of forest cover lead to higher near-surface air temperature and lower air humidity in both burned and surrounding unburned forest areas. On the other hand, reduced incoming solar radiation due to smoke from forest fire plumes decreased land surface temperatures and increased thermal atmospheric stability resulting in reduced regional precipitation.

The COSMO-ART model is used at the Hydrometcenter of Russia for the routine forecast of air pollutant concentrations. The COSMO-Ru7-ART system is able to simulate adequately the values of concentration of impurities in the atmosphere. The system includes the module for estimating the emission of pollutants to the atmosphere from forest fires that was successfully tested on the case of forest fires occurred in the summer of 2010 for the European part of Russia. The accurate forecast of pollutant concentration has also a positive effect on the air temperature forecast due to taking into account the aerosol feedback on radiation.

The COSMO-Ru1Mp prototype of the numerical weather prediction system for the Moscow region with a grid spacing of 1 km and with the included and adapted TERRA_URB parameterization module for the...

Data of multiyear observations from Mosecomonitoring network stations were used to calculate the CO, NO, NO₂, SO₂, and PM₁₀ emissions from urban sources, their spatial distribution, and time variations. The emission matrix thus obtained was used in the SILAM chemical transport model to estimate the air quality in the Moscow megacity. The comparisons of the calculations with the observations, performed by applying correlation relations and Student’s test, were used to correct the emission matrix. To optimize the spatial distribution of sources and the magnitude of emissions in the Moscow megacity, air pollutant fields for the summer and winter months were calculated applying chemical transport models SILAM and COSMO-ART using emissions both calculated and available from the TNO emission inventory database. Comparison of these calculations made it possible to reduce the uncertainties of estimating the air quality in the Moscow region.

During the AeroRadCity-2018 spring aerosol experiment at the Moscow State University Meteorological Observatory the aerosol properties of the atmosphere and radiative aerosol effects were analyzed using a wide complex of measurements and model COSMO-ART simulations over Moscow domain. The program of measurements consisted of columnar aerosol AERONET retrievals, surface PM10, black carbon (BC) and aerosol gas precursors mass concentrations, as well as radiative measurements under various meteorological conditions. We obtained a positive statistically significant dependence of total and fine aerosol optical depth (AOD) mode (R² ~0.4) with PM concentrations. This dependence has revealed a pronounced bifurcation point around PM10=0.04 mgm^-3. The modelled BC concentration is in agreement with the observations and has a pronounced correlation with PM, but not with the AODs. The analysis of radiative effects of aerosol has revealed up to 30% loss for UV irradiance and 15% - for shortwave irradiance at high AOD in Moscow. Much intensive radiation attenuation is observed in the afternoon when remote pollution sources may affect solar fluxes at elevated boundary layer conditions. Negative (cooling) radiative forcing effect at the top of the atmosphere from -18 Wm^-2 to -4 Wm^-2 has been evaluated. Mean difference in visible AOD between urban and background conditions in Moscow and Zvenigorod was about 0.01 according to measurements and model simulations, while in some days the difference may increase up to 0.05. The generation of urban aerosol was shown to be more favorable in conditions with low intensity of pollutant dispersion, when mean deltaAOD550 was doubled from 0.01 to 0.02.