In this study we describe the wind wave fields in the Black Sea. The general aims of the work were the estimation of statistical wave parameters and the assessment of interannual and seasonal wave parameter variability. The domain of this study was the entire Black Sea. Wave parameters were calculated by means of the SWAN wave model on a 5 × 5 km rectangular grid. Initial conditions (wind speed and direction) for the period between 1949 and 2010 were derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. According to our calculations the average significant wave height on the Black Sea does not exceed 0.7 m. Areas of most significant heavy sea are the southwestern and the northeastern parts of the sea as expressed in the spatial distribution of significant wave heights, wave lengths and periods. Besides, long-term annual variations of wave parameters were estimated. Thus, linear trends of the annual total duration of storms and of their quantity are nearly stable over the hindcast period. However, an intensification of storm activity is observed in the 1960s–1970s.

Described is the second stage of the work (2011-2014) on the implementation and development of the COSMO-Ru system of nonhydrostatic short-range weather forecasting (the first stage of the implementation and development of the COSMO-Ru system is described in [7, 8]). Demonstrated is how the research activities and ideas of G.I. Marchuk influenced modern methods for solving the systems of differential equations that describe atmospheric processes (in particular, the version of the Marchuk’s splitting method is used to find the solution of the finite-difference analog of the system of differential equations in the COSMO-Ru model); it is shown how he contributed to the development of the methods of assimilation of meteorological information associated with the use of adjoint equations. Given is a brief description of the COSMO model of the atmosphere and soil active layer, the COSMO-Ru system, and research activities on this system development.

LONG-TERM STATISTICS OF STORMS IN THE BALTIC, BARENTS AND WHITE SEAS AND THEIR FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

The article proposes the method of climatic forecast of the occurrence frequency of synoptic conditions causing severe hydrometeorological events as well as severe events that are genetically related...

The COSMO-ART model is used at the Hydrometcenter of Russia for the routine forecast of air pollutant concentrations. The COSMO-Ru7-ART system is able to simulate adequately the values of concentration of impurities in the atmosphere. The system includes the module for estimating the emission of pollutants to the atmosphere from forest fires that was successfully tested on the case of forest fires occurred in the summer of 2010 for the European part of Russia. The accurate forecast of pollutant concentration has also a positive effect on the air temperature forecast due to taking into account the aerosol feedback on radiation.

Extreme sea storms are dangerous and a potential source of damage. In this study, we examine storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea, the atmosphere circulation patterns associated with the sea storm events, and their changes in the present (1961–2000) and future (2046–2065) climates. A calendar of storms for the present climate is derived from results of wave model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) experiments. On the basis of this calendar, a catalog of atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) fields was prepared from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset for 1961–2000. The SLP fields were subjected to a pattern recognition algorithm which employed empirical orthogonal decomposition followed by cluster analysis. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data is used to evaluate the occurring circulation types (CTs) within the ECHAM5-MPI/OM Atmosphere and Ocean Global Circulation Model (AOGCM) for the period 1961–2000. Our analysis shows that the ECHAM5-MPI/OM model is capable of reproducing circulation patterns for the storm events. The occurrence of present and future ECHAM5-MPI/OM CTs is investigated. It is shown that storm CTs are expected to occur noticeably less frequently in the middle of the 21^st century.