chunrui Ma

Mr. chunrui Ma


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

6Years (2021-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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27 August 2021 in Symmetry
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
XWXinheng Wang
Xinheng Wang
XGXiaojin Gao
Xiaojin Gao
ZWZuoxun Wang
Zuoxun Wang
CMchunrui Ma
chunrui Ma
ZSZengxu Song
Zengxu Song
Inaccurate electricity load forecasting can lead to the power sector gaining asymmetric information in the supply and demand relationship. This asymmetric information can lead to incorrect production or generation plans for the power sector. In order to improve the accuracy of load forecasting, a combined power load forecasting model based on machine learning algorithms, swarm intelligence optimization algorithms, and data pre-processing is proposed. Firstly, the original signal is pre-processed by the VMD–singular spectrum analysis data pre-processing method. Secondly, the noise-reduced signals are predicted using the Elman prediction model optimized by the sparrow search algorithm, the ELM prediction model optimized by the chaotic adaptive whale algorithm (CAWOA-ELM), and the LSSVM prediction model optimized by the chaotic sparrow search algorithm based on elite opposition-based learning (EOBL-CSSA-LSSVM) for electricity load data, respectively. Finally, the weighting coefficients of the three prediction models are calculated using the simulated annealing algorithm and weighted to obtain the prediction results. Comparative simulation experiments show that the VMD–singular spectrum analysis method and two improved intelligent optimization algorithms proposed in this paper can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Additionally, the combined forecasting model proposed in this paper has extremely high forecasting accuracy, which can help the power sector to develop a reasonable production plan and power generation plans.

23 April 2021 in Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
ZWZuoxun Wang
Zuoxun Wang
XWXinheng Wang
Xinheng Wang
CMchunrui Ma
chunrui Ma
ZSZengxu Song
Zengxu Song
Accurate and stable power load forecasting methods are essential for the rational allocation of power resources and grid operation. Due to the nonlinear nature of power loads, it is difficult for a single forecasting method to complete the forecasting task accurately and quickly. In this study, a new combined model for power loads forecasting is proposed. The initial weights and thresholds of the extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by the chaotic sparrow search algorithm (CSSA) and improved by the firefly algorithm (FA) are used to improve the forecasting performance and achieve accurate forecasting. The early local optimum that exists in the sparrow algorithm is overcome by Tent chaotic mapping. A firefly perturbation strategy is used to improve the global optimization capability of the model. Real values from a power grid in Shandong are used to validate the prediction performance of the proposed FA-CSSA-ELM model. Experiments show that the proposed model produces more accurate forecasting results than other single forecasting models or combined forecasting models.