Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

COVID-19 is a pandemic of unprecedented proportions in recent human history. Less than 18 months since the onset of the pandemic, there are close to two hundred million confirmed cases and four million deaths worldwide. There have also been massive efforts geared towards finding safe and effective vaccines. By July 2021 there were 184 COVID-19 vaccine candidates in pre-clinical development, 105 in clinical development, and 18 vaccines approved for emergency use by at least one regulatory authority. These vaccines include whole virus live attenuated or inactivated, protein-based, viral vector, and nucleic acid vaccines. By mid-2021 three billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been administered around the world, mostly in high-income countries. COVID-19 vaccination provides hope for an end to the pandemic, if and only if there would be equal access and optimal uptake in all countries around the world.

Vaccine hesitancy, which embodies the unwillingness to receive vaccines when vaccination services are available and accessible, is one of the greatest threats to global health. Although vaccine hesitancy has existed among a small percentage of people for centuries, its harmful effects are likely to be more pronounced during the COVID-19 pandemic than ever before. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy will pose substantial risks for both people who delay or refuse to be vaccinated and the wider community. It will make communities unable to reach thresholds of coverage necessary for herd immunity against COVID-19, thus unnecessarily perpetuating the pandemic and resulting in untold suffering and deaths. Vaccine hesitancy is pervasive, misinformed, contagious, and is not limited to COVID-19 vaccination. Our work shows that vaccine hesitancy is a complex and dynamic social process that reflects multiple webs of influence, meaning, and logic. People’s vaccination views and practices usually comprise an ongoing engagement that is contingent on unfolding personal and social circumstances, which can potentially change over time. Therefore, as COVID-19 vaccination rolls out globally, scientists and decision-makers need to investigate the scale and determinants of vaccine hesitancy in each setting; so that tailored and targeted strategies can be developed to address it.

In Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb), damage-induced mutagenesis is dependent on the C-family DNA polymerase, DnaE2. Included with dnaE2 in the Mtb SOS regulon is a putative operon comprising Rv3395c , which encodes a protein of unknown function restricted primarily to actinomycetes, and Rv3394c , which is predicted to encode a Y-family DNA polymerase. These genes were previously identified as components of an imuA - imuB - dnaE2 –type mutagenic cassette widespread among bacterial genomes. Here, we confirm that Rv3395c (designated imuA ′) and Rv3394c ( imuB ) are individually essential for induced mutagenesis and damage tolerance. Yeast two-hybrid analyses indicate that ImuB interacts with both ImuA′ and DnaE2, as well as with the β-clamp. Moreover, disruption of the ImuB-β clamp interaction significantly reduces induced mutagenesis and damage tolerance, phenocopying imuA ′, imuB , and dnaE2 gene deletion mutants. Despite retaining structural features characteristic of Y-family members, ImuB homologs lack conserved active-site amino acids required for polymerase activity. In contrast, replacement of DnaE2 catalytic residues reproduces the dnaE2 gene deletion phenotype, strongly implying a direct role for the α-subunit in mutagenic lesion bypass. These data implicate differential protein interactions in specialist polymerase function and identify the split imuA ′- imuB / dnaE2 cassette as a compelling target for compounds designed to limit mutagenesis in a pathogen increasingly associated with drug resistance.

Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm—the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. Results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Background Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four ‘colliding epidemics’ of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. Methods We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990–2007 and 2007–2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. Results Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990–2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007–2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. Conclusions Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic.