This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV) plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI) model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.

This paper presents a multiobjective optimization methodology, using an evolutionary algorithm, for finding out the best distribution network reliability while simultaneously minimizing the system expansion costs. A nonlinear mixed integer optimization model, achieving the optimal sizing and location of future feeders (reserve feeders and operation feeders) and substations, has been used. The proposed methodology has been tested intensively for distribution systems with dimensions that are significantly larger than the ones frequently found in the papers about this issue. Furthermore, this methodology is general since it is suitable for the multiobjective optimization of n objectives simultaneously. The algorithm can determine the set of optimal nondominated solutions, allowing the planner to obtain the optimal locations and sizes of the reserve feeders that achieve the best system reliability with the lowest expansion costs. The model and the algorithm have been applied intensively to real life power systems showing its potential of applicability to large distribution networks in practice.