A decline in the carbon fertilization effect: One source of uncertainty in climate science is how the carbon fertilization effect (CFE) will contribute to mitigation of anthropogenic climate change. Wang et al. explored the temporal dynamics of CFE on vegetation photosynthesis at the global scale. There has been a decline over recent decades in the contribution of CFE to vegetation photosynthesis, perhaps owing to the limiting effects of plant nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus. This declining trend has not been adequately accounted for in carbon cycle models. CFE thus has limitations for long-term mitigation of climate change, and future warming might currently be underestimated. Science , this issue p. 1295

Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is a non‐hygroscopic trace species in the free troposphere and a large sulfur reservoir maintained by both direct oceanic, geologic, biogenic, and anthropogenic emissions and the oxidation of other sulfur‐containing source species. It is the largest source of sulfur transported to the stratosphere during volcanically quiescent periods. Data from 22 ground‐based globally dispersed stations are used to derive trends in total and partial column OCS. Middle infrared spectral data are recorded by solar‐viewing Fourier transform interferometers that are operated as part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change between 1986 and 2020. Vertical information in the retrieved profiles provides analysis of discreet altitudinal regions. Trends are found to have well‐defined inflection points. In two linear trend time periods ∼2002 to 2008 and ∼2008 to 2016 tropospheric trends range from ∼0.0 to (1.55 ± 0.30%/yr) in contrast to the prior period where all tropospheric trends are negative. Regression analyses show strongest correlation in the free troposphere with anthropogenic emissions. Stratospheric trends in the period ∼2008 to 2016 are positive up to (1.93 ± 0.26%/yr) except notably low latitude stations that have negative stratospheric trends. Since ∼2016, all stations show a free tropospheric decrease to 2020. Stratospheric OCS is regressed with simultaneously measured N₂O to derive a trend accounting for dynamical variability. Stratospheric lifetimes are derived and range from (54.1 ± 9.7)yr in the sub‐tropics to (103.4 ± 18.3)yr in Antarctica. These unique long‐term measurements provide new and critical constraints on the global OCS budget.

Carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides a proxy for measuring photosynthesis and is the primary background source of stratospheric aerosols. OCS emissions due to biomass burning are a variable and substantial (over 10%) part of the current OCS budget. OCS emission ratios from open burning fires, coupled with 1997–2016 data from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4), yield OCS biomass burning emissions with a global average annual flux of 60 ± 37 Gg(S) year⁻¹. A global box model suggests these emissions are more consistent with observations from global atmospheric composition monitoring networks than fluxes derived from previous synthesis papers. Even after considering the uncertainty in emission factor observations for each category of emissions and the interannual variation in total burned dry matter, the total OCS emissions from open burning are insufficient to account for the large imbalance between current estimates of global OCS sources and sinks.

Our study suggests that the global CO ₂ fertilization effect (CFE) on vegetation photosynthesis has declined during the past four decades. The Comments suggest that the temporal inconsistency in AVHRR data and the attribution method undermine the results’ robustness. Here, we provide additional evidence that these arguments did not affect our finding and that the global decline in CFE is robust.