Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

The tsunami generated by the offshore Samos Island earthquake (M_w = 7.0, 30 October 2020) is the largest in the Aegean Sea since 1956 CE. Our study was based on field surveys, video records, eyewitness accounts and far-field mareograms. Sea recession was the leading motion in most sites implying wave generation from seismic dislocation. At an epicentral distance of ~12 km (site K4, north Samos), sea recession, followed by extreme wave height (h~3.35 m), occurred 2′ and 4′ after the earthquake, respectively. In K4, the main wave moved obliquely to the coast. These features may reflect coupling of the broadside tsunami with landslide generated tsunami at offshore K4. The generation of an on-shelf edge-wave might be an alternative. A few kilometers from K4, a wave height of ~1 m was measured in several sites, except Vathy bay (east, h = 2 m) and Karlovasi port (west, h = 1.80 m) where the wave amplified. In Vathy bay, two inundations arrived with a time difference of ~19′, the second being the strongest. In Karlovasi, one inundation occurred. In both towns and in western Turkey, material damage was caused in sites with h > 1 m. In other islands, h ≤ 1 m was reported. The h > 0.5 m values follow power-law decay away from the source. We calculated a tsunami magnitude of M_t~7.0, a tsunami source area of 1960 km² and a displacement amplitude of ~1 m in the tsunami source. A co-seismic 15–25 cm coastal uplift of Samos decreased the tsunami run-up. The early warning message perhaps contributed to decrease the tsunami impact.

Three strong earthquakes ruptured the northwest Thessaly area, Central Greece, on the 3, 4 and 12 March 2021. Since the area did not rupture by strong earthquakes in the instrumental period of seismicity, it is of great interest to understand the seismotectonics and source properties of these earthquakes. We combined relocated hypocenters, inversions of teleseismic P-waveforms and of InSAR data, and moment tensor solutions to produce three fault models. The first shock (M_w = 6.3) occurred in a fault segment of strike 314° and dip NE41°. It caused surface subsidence −40 cm and seismic slip 1.2–1.5 m at depth ~10 km. The second earthquake (M_w = 6.2) occurred to the NW on an antithetic subparallel fault segment (strike 123°, dip SW44°). Seismic slip of 1.2 m occurred at depth of ~7 km, while surface subsidence −10 cm was determined. Possibly the same fault was ruptured further to the NW on 12 March (M_w = 5.7, strike 112°, dip SSW42°) that caused ground subsidence −5 cm and seismic slip of 1.0 m at depth ~10 km. We concluded that three blind, unknown and unmapped so far normal fault segments were activated, the entire system of which forms a graben-like structure in the area of northwest Thessaly.

This systematic review provides a comprehensive overview of tsunami evacuation models. The review covers scientific studies from the last decade (2012–2021) and is explicitly focused on models using an agent-based approach. The PRISMA methodology was used to analyze 171 selected papers, resulting in over 53 studies included in the detailed full-text analysis. This review is divided into two main parts: (1) a descriptive analysis of the presented models (focused on the modeling tools, validation, and software platform used, etc.), and (2) model analysis (e.g., model purpose, types of agents, input and output data, and modeled area). Special attention was given to the features of these models specifically associated with an agent-based approach. The results lead to the conclusion that the research domain of agent-based tsunami evacuation models is quite narrow and specialized, with a high degree of variability in the model attributes and properties. At the same time, the application of agent-specific methodologies, protocols, organizational paradigms, or standards is sparse.

On 26.1.2014 and 3.2.2014 two strong earthquakes of Mw6.0 and Mw5.9 ruptured the western Cephalonia Isl., Ionian Sea (Greece), at the SSW-wards continuation of the Lefkada segment of the Cephalonia Transform Fault Zone (CTFZ), causing considerable damage and a variety of ground failures. High-precision relocation of the aftershocks implies that the seismogenic layer was of 35 km in length (L) striking NNE-SSW, of 10 km maximum in width and 15 km in thickness. Two aftershock spatial clusters were revealed at north (L1~10 km) and at south (L2~25 km). However, no time correlation was found between the two clusters and the two strong earthquakes. Fitting the temporal evolution of aftershocks to the Omori-law showed slow aftershock decay. Fault plane solutions produced by moment tensor inversions indicated that the strong earthquakes as well as a plenty of aftershocks (Mw≥4.0) were associated with dextral strikeslip faulting with some thrust component and preferred fault planes striking about NNE-SSW. Average fault plane parameters obtained for the three largest events are: strike 21(±2)0, dip 65.5(±3)0, slip 173(±3)0. Broadband P-wave teleseismic records were inverted for understanding the rupture histories. It was found that the earthquake of 26.1.2014 had a complex source time function with c. 62 cm maximum slip, source duration of ~12 s and downwards rupture. Most of the slip was concentrated on a 13x9 km fault rupture. The earthquake of 3.2.2014 had a relatively simple source time function related with one big patch of slip with maximum slip c. 45 cm, with 10 s source duration. The rupture was directed upwards which along with the shallow focus (~5 km) and the simple source time function may explain the significantly larger (0.77 g) PGA recorded with the second earthquake with respect to the one recorded (0.56 g) with the first earthquake. Most of the slip was concentrated on a 12x6 km fault rupture. Maximum seismic intensity (Im) of level VII and VIII to VIII+ was felt in Lixouri town and the nearby villages from the first and the second earthquake, respectively. The rupture histories and the increased building vulnerability after the damage caused by the first shock may account for the larger Im caused by the second shock. However, the ground failures area of the second earthquake was nearly half of that of the first earthquake, which is consistent with the faster attenuation of ground acceleration away from the meizoseismal area caused by the second earthquake with respect to the first one. From that the 2014 earthquakes ruptured on land western Cephalonia we suggested to revise the CTFZ geometry in the sense that the Lefkada CTFZ segment does not terminates offshore NW Cephalonia but extends towards SSW in western Cephalonia.