The Sichuan basin is one of the most densely populated regions of China, making the area particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts associated with future climate change. As such, climate models are important for understanding regional and local impacts of climate change and variability, like heat stress and drought. In this study, climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are validated over the Sichuan basin by evaluating how well each model can capture the phase, amplitude, and variability of the regionally observed mean, maximum, and minimum temperature between 1979 and 2005. The results reveal that the majority of the models do not capture the basic spatial pattern and observed means, trends, and probability distribution functions. In particular, mean and minimum temperatures are underestimated, especially during the winter, resulting in biases exceeding −3°C. Models that reasonably represent the complex basin topography are found to generally have lower biases overall. The five most skillful climate models with respect to the regional climate of the Sichuan basin are selected to explore twenty-first-century temperature projections for the region. Under the CMIP5 high-emission future climate change scenario, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), the temperatures are projected to increase by approximately 4°C (with an average warming rate of +0.72°C decade⁻¹), with the greatest warming located over the central plains of the Sichuan basin, by 2100. Moreover, the frequency of extreme months (where mean temperature exceeds 28°C) is shown to increase in the twenty-first century at a faster rate compared to the twentieth century.

This is an Open Access Article. It is published by Elsevier under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence (CC BY). Full details of this licence are available at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/The National Health Service (NHS) Estate in England includes 18.83 Mm of acute hospital accommodation, distributed across 330 sites. Vulnerability to overheating is clear with 15,000 excess deaths occurring nationally during the July 2003 heatwave. The installation of mechanical cooling in existing hospitals appears to be the inevitable recommendation from NHS patient safety risk assessments but the carbon implications would undermine the NHS Carbon Reduction Strategy. NHS CO emissions constitute 25% of all public sector emissions, equivalent to 3% of the UK total. In the post-2008 economic climate, the likelihood of wholesale replacement of the NHS Estate is significantly diminished; refurbishment is now of increasing interest to the Trusts that together make up the NHS. The research project 'Design and Delivery of Robust Hospital Environments in a Changing Climate' seeks to understand the environmental performance of the current NHS Estate and, from this, to establish its resilience. To this end, hospital buildings operated by four NHS Trusts are being monitored and simulated using dynamic thermal models calibrated against measured data. Adaptive refurbishment options are proposed and their relative performance predicted against the existing internal conditions, energy demands and CO emissions. This paper presents findings relating to one representative type building, a medium-rise ward block dating from the late 1960s. It shows that this particular type may have more resilience in the current climate than might have been expected, that it will remain resilient into the 2030s, and that relatively non-invasive measures would extend and increase its resilience whilst saving energy

Natural ventilation is a proven strategy for maintaining thermal comfort in non-domestic buildings in the UK. The energy consumption and thus the carbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming are lower than in conventional air-conditioned buildings. However, the ambient temperatures in the UK have risen over the last decade and new climatic data for use in the design of naturally ventilated buildings has been published. Using these data and dynamic thermal modelling, it is shown that passive stack ventilation alone was unlikely to maintain summertime comfort in a proposed University College London building within an urban heat island. The stack ventilation strategy was evolved by the introduction of passive downdraught cooling. This low-energy technique enables cooled air to be distributed throughout the building without mechanical assistance. The underlying principles of the technique were explored using physical models and the anticipated performance predicted using thermal modelling. The architectural integration is illustrated and the control strategy described. The resulting building is believed to be the first large-scale application of the passive downdraught cooling technique; construction began in late 2003.

What is the potential for incorporating low-energy ventilation and cooling strategies into the design of new hospitals? How would such strategies cope with a changing climate? Natural ventilation is promoted by the UK National Health Service (NHS) in its recently launched carbon reduction strategy. NHS energy targets are reviewed in the context of UK national and international targets. Examination of the targets suggests customary environmental design strategies for new hospitals will not deliver the performance required. Perceived barriers to the implementation of more naturally driven environments in healthcare buildings are discussed, particularly the risk of air-borne cross-infection. Environmental design propositions for specific clinical and non-clinical space-types are created, catalogued, and aggregated into a typical plan component, their ventilation and energy performance modelled and factored to the scale of a 200-bed hospital to current NHS service delivery policies. The exercise suggests 70% of net floor area of small-to-medium-sized acute hospitals could be naturally ventilated. A hybrid ventilation strategy may serve a further 10% of net floor area. Patients and staff may benefit from more naturally sustained environments. Indications of the predicted comparative energy performance, potentially reduced to 38 MJ/100 m³, and capital and life cycle costs are provided. Quelles sont les possibilités d'intégration de stratégies de ventilation et de refroidissement basse consommation dans la conception de nouveaux hôpitaux? Comment de telles stratégies permettraient-elles de faire face à un climat en évolution? La ventilation naturelle est encouragée par le NHS (Service National de Santé du Royaume-Uni) dans sa stratégie récemment lancée de réduction du carbone. Les objectifs énergétiques du NHS sont examinés dans le contexte des objectifs nationaux et internationaux du Royaume-Uni. L'examen de ces objectifs suggère que les stratégies de conception environnementale habituelles pour les nouveaux hôpitaux n'assureront pas les performances requises. Il est discuté des obstacles perçus à la mise en place dans les bâtiments de santé de cadres de vie et de travail fonctionnant de manière plus naturelle, et en particulier du risque de surinfection aérogène. Des propositions de conceptions environnementales destinées à des espaces-types cliniques et non cliniques spécifiques sont créées, cataloguées et rassemblées en un élément de plan type, leurs performances en termes de ventilation et d'énergie étant modélisées et factorisées à l'échelle d'un hôpital de 200 lits conforme aux politiques actuelles de fourniture de prestations de santé du NHS. L'exercice suggère que 70% de la surface nette habitable des hôpitaux de court séjour petits et moyens pourrait être ventilée naturellement. Une surface nette habitable supplémentaire de 10% pourrait être desservie grâce à une stratégie de ventilation hybride. Les patients et le personnel pourraient bénéficier d'un cadre plus naturellement pérenne. Des indications sont fournies concernant le rendement énergétique comparé prévu, qui pourrait être ramené à 38 MJ/100 m³, les coûts d'immobilisation et les coûts du cycle de vie. Mots clés: infection aérogène, rendement énergétique, hôpitaux, systèmes environnementaux hybrides, coûts du cycle de vie, ventilation naturelle, refroidissement passif