Both climate and land use changes can influence water quality and quantity in different ways. Thus, for predicting future water quality and quantity trends, simulations should ideally account for both projected climate and land use changes. In this paper, land use projections and climate change scenarios were integrated with a hydrological model to estimate the relative impact of climate and land use projections on a suite of water quality and quantity endpoints for a Canadian watershed. Climatic time series representing SRES change scenario A2 were generated by downscaling the outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4.1.1) using a combination of quantile-quantile transformation and nearest neighbor search. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate streamflow, nitrogen and phosphorus loading under different climate and land use scenarios. Results showed that a) climate change will drive up maximum monthly streamflow, nitrate loads, and organic phosphorus loads, while decreasing organic nitrogen and nitrite loads; and b) land use changes were found to drive the same water quality/quantity variables in the same direction as climate change, except for organic nitrogen loads, for which the effects of the two stressors had a reverse impact on loading.

Floods are major water-related disasters that affect millions of people resulting in thousands of mortalities and billiondollar losses globally every year. Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) - one of the floods risk management measures - are currently operational in many countries. The UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction recognises their importance and strongly advocates for an increase in their availability under the targets of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, despite widespread recognition of the importance of FEWS for disaster risk reduction (DRR), there’s a lack of information on their availability and status around the world, their benefits and costs, challenges and trends associated with their development. This report contributes to bridging these gaps by analyzing the responses to a comprehensive online survey with over 80 questions on various components of FEWS (risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, warning dissemination and communication, and response capabilities), investments into FEWS, their operational effectiveness, benefits, and challenges. FEWS were classified as technologically “basic”, “intermediate” and “advanced” depending on the existence and sophistication of FEWS` components such as hydrological data = collection systems, data transfer systems, flood forecasting methods, and early warning communication methods. The survey questionnaire was distributed to flood forecasting and warning centers around the globe; the primary focus was developing and least-developed countries (LDCs). The questionnaire is available here: https://inweh.unu.edu/questionnaireevaluation-of-flood-early-warning-systems/ and can be useful in its own right for similar studies at national or regional scales, in its current form or with case-specific modifications. Survey responses were received from 47 developing (including LDCs) and six developed countries. Additional information for some countries was extracted from available literature. Analysis of these data suggests the existence of an equal number of “intermediate” and “advanced” FEWS in surveyed river basins. While developing countries overall appear to progress well in FEWS implementation, LDCs are still lagging behind since most of them have “basic” FEWS. The difference between types of operational systems in developing and developed countries appear to be insignificant; presence of basic, intermediate or advanced FEWS depends on available investments for system developments and continuous financing for their operations, and there is evidence of more financial support — on the order of USD 100 million — to FEWS in developing countries thanks to international aid. However, training the staff and maintaining the FEWS for long-term operations are challenging. About 75% of responses indicate that river basins have inadequate hydrological network coverage and back-up equipment. Almost half of the responders indicated that their models are not advanced and accurate enough to produce reliable forecasts. Lack of technical expertise and limited skilled manpower to perform forecasts was cited by 50% of respondents. The primary reason for establishing FEWS, based on the survey, is to avoid property damage; minimizing causalities and agricultural losses appear to be secondary reasons. The range of the community benefited by FEWS varies, but 55% of FEWS operate in the range between 100,000 to 1 million of population. The number of flood disasters and their causalities has declined since the year 2000, while 50% of currently operating FEWS were established over the same period. This decline may be attributed to the combined DRR efforts, of which FEWS are an integral part. In lower-middle-income and low-income countries, economic losses due to flood disasters may be smaller in absolute terms, but they represent a higher percentage of such countries’ GDP. In high-income countries, higher flood-related losses accounted for a small percentage of their GDP. To improve global knowledge on FEWS status and implementation in the context of Sendai Framework and SDGs, the report’s recommendations include: i) coordinate global investments in FEWS development and standardise investment reporting; ii) establish an international hub to monitor the status of FEWS in collaboration with the national responsible agencies. This will support the sharing of FEWS-related information for accelerated global progress in DRR; iii) develop a comprehensive, index-based ranking system for FEWS according to their effectiveness in flood disaster mitigation. This will provide clear standards and a roadmap for improving FEWS’ effectiveness, and iv) improve coordination between institutions responsible for flood forecasting and those responsible for communicating warnings and community preparedness and awareness.