Both climate and land use changes can influence water quality and quantity in different ways. Thus, for predicting future water quality and quantity trends, simulations should ideally account for both projected climate and land use changes. In this paper, land use projections and climate change scenarios were integrated with a hydrological model to estimate the relative impact of climate and land use projections on a suite of water quality and quantity endpoints for a Canadian watershed. Climatic time series representing SRES change scenario A2 were generated by downscaling the outputs of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4.1.1) using a combination of quantile-quantile transformation and nearest neighbor search. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to simulate streamflow, nitrogen and phosphorus loading under different climate and land use scenarios. Results showed that a) climate change will drive up maximum monthly streamflow, nitrate loads, and organic phosphorus loads, while decreasing organic nitrogen and nitrite loads; and b) land use changes were found to drive the same water quality/quantity variables in the same direction as climate change, except for organic nitrogen loads, for which the effects of the two stressors had a reverse impact on loading.

Proliferation of microplastics in rivers, lakes, estuaries, coastal waters and oceans is a major global challenge and threat to the environment, livelihoods and human health. Reliable predictive tools can play an essential role in developing an improved understanding of microplastics behaviour, exposure and risk in water bodies, and facilitate identification of sources and accumulation hot spots, thereby enabling informed decision-making for targeted prevention and clean-up activities. This study presents a new numerical framework (CaMPSim-3D) for predicting microplastics fate and transport in different aquatic settings, which consists of a Lagrangian, three-dimensional (3D) particle-tracking model (PTM) coupled with an Eulerian-based hydrodynamic modeling system (TELEMAC). The 3D PTM has several innovative features that enable accurate simulation and efficient coupling with TELEMAC, which utilizes an unstructured computational mesh. The PTM is capable of considering spatio-temporally varying diffusivity, and uses an innovative algorithm to locate particles within the Eulerian mesh. Model accuracy associated with different advection schemes was verified by comparing numerical predictions to known analytical solutions for several test cases. The implications of choosing different advection schemes for modeling microplastics transport was then investigated by applying the PTM to simulate particle transport in the lower Saint John River Estuary in eastern Canada. The sensitivity of the PTM predictions to the advection scheme was investigated using six numerical schemes with different levels of complexity. Predicted particle distributions and residence times based on the fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) scheme differed significantly (residence times by up to 100 %) from those computed using the traditional first-order (Euler) method. The Third Order Total Variation Diminishing (TVD3) Runge-Kutta method was found to be optimal, providing the closest results to RK4 with approximately 27 % lower computational cost.

Microplastics pollution has led to irreversible environmental consequences and has triggered global concerns. It has been shown that water resources and marine food consumers are adversely affected by microplastics due to their physico-chemical characteristics. This study attempts to comprehensively review the structure of four well-known Lagrangian particle-tracking models, i.e., Delft3D—Water Quality Particle tracking module (D-WAQ PART), Ichthyoplankton (Ichthyop), Track Marine Plastic Debris (TrackMPD), and Canadian Microplastic Simulation (CaMPSim-3D) in simulating the fate and transport of microplastics. Accordingly, the structure of each model is investigated with respect to addressing the involved physical transport processes (including advection, diffusion, windage, beaching, and washing-off) and transformation processes (particularly biofouling and degradation) that play key roles in microplastics’ behavior in the marine environment. In addition, the effects of the physical properties (mainly size, diameter, and shape) of microplastics on their fate and trajectories are reviewed. The models’ capabilities and shortcomings in the simulation of microplastics are also discussed. The present review sheds light on some aspects of microplastics’ behavior in water that were not properly addressed in particle-tracking models, such as homo- and hetero-aggregation, agglomeration, photodegradation, and chemical and biological degradation as well as additional advection due to wave-induced drift. This study can be regarded as a reliable steppingstone for the future modification of the reviewed models.