The performance of seven operational high-resolution satellite-based rainfall products – Africa Rainfall Estimate Climatology (ARC 2.0), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), African Rainfall Estimation (RFE 2.0), Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite (TAMSAT), African Rainfall Climatology and Time-series (TARCAT), and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily and monthly estimates – was investigated for Burkina Faso. These were compared to ground data for 2001–2014 on a point-to-pixel basis at daily to annual time steps. Continuous statistics was used to assess their performance in estimating and reproducing rainfall amounts, and categorical statistics to evaluate rain detection capabilities. The north–south gradient of rainfall was captured by all products, which generally detected heavy rainfall events, but showed low correlation for rainfall amounts. At daily scale they performed poorly. As the time step increased, the performance improved. All (except TARCAT) provided excellent scores for Bias and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficients, and overestimated rainfall amounts at the annual scale. RFE performed the best, whereas TARCAT was the weakest. Choice of product depends on the specific application: ARC, RFE, and TARCAT for drought monitoring, and PERSIANN, CHIRPS, and TRMM daily for flood monitoring in Burkina Faso.

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates.

Knowing where, when, and how much rice is planted and harvested is crucial information for understanding the effects of policy, trade, and global and technological change on food security. We developed RiceAtlas, a spatial database on the seasonal distribution of the world’s rice production. It consists of data on rice planting and harvesting dates by growing season and estimates of monthly production for all rice-producing countries. Sources used for planting and harvesting dates include global and regional databases, national publications, online reports, and expert knowledge. Monthly production data were estimated based on annual or seasonal production statistics, and planting and harvesting dates. RiceAtlas has 2,725 spatial units. Compared with available global crop calendars, RiceAtlas is nearly ten times more spatially detailed and has nearly seven times more spatial units, with at least two seasons of calendar data, making RiceAtlas the most comprehensive and detailed spatial database on rice calendar and production.

Parasitic weeds pose increasing threats to rain-fed rice production in Africa. Most important species are Striga asiatica, S. aspera and S. hermonthica in rain-fed uplands, and Rhamphicarpa fistulosa in rain-fed lowlands. Information on the regional spread and economic importance of parasitic weeds in cereal production systems is scant. This article presents the first multi-species, multi-country, single-crop impact assessment of parasitic weeds in Africa. A systematic search of public international and national herbaria and the scientific literature was conducted to collect all available data on the regional distribution, incidences and related yield losses of the most important parasitic weeds in rice. Herbaria specimens were geo-referenced and these coordinates were overlapped with rain-fed rice areas. Probabilistic diffusion waves of parasitic weeds were generated to derive most likely incidence values. Estimates from this spatial analysis were then combined with secondary data from the literature into a stochastic impact assessment model to generate a confidence interval of the likely economic impact per country and for sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. Rhamphicarpa fistulosa occurs in at least 36 African countries, 28 of which produce rice in rain-fed lowlands where this species thrives. Striga hermonthica is found in at least 32 countries, Striga asiatica in at least 44 and S. aspera in at least 17. A total of 50 countries have at least one of these three species of Striga, 31 of which produce rice in the rain-fed uplands where these species can be encountered. An estimated 1.34 million ha of rain-fed rice is infested with at least one species of a parasitic weed in Africa. Our stochastic model estimates that annual economic losses inflicted by all parasitic weeds exceeds, with 95% certainty, a minimum value of US $111 million and most likely reaches roughly US $200 million and increases by US $30 million annually. To reverse this trend and support small-holder rice farmers in Africa with effective, sustainable and affordable solutions for control, targeted investments in research, development and capacity building are required. The top-10 priority countries where such investments would probably have the highest return are Nigeria, Guinea, Mali, Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Madagascar, Uganda, Sierra Leone and Burkina Faso