Spatially-explicit land cover land use change (LCLUC) models are becoming increasingly useful tools for historians and archaeologists. Such kinds of models have been developed and used by geographers, ecologists and land managers over the last few decades to carry out prospective scenarios. In this paper, we review historical models to compare them with prospective models, with the assumption that the ample experience gained in the development of models of prospective simulation can benefit the development of models having as their objective the simulation of changes that happened in the past. The review is divided into three sections: in the first section, we explain the functioning of contemporary LCLUC models; in the second section, we analyze historical LCLUC models; in the third section, we compare the former two types of models, and finally, we discuss the contributions to historical LCLUC models of contemporary LCLUC models.

Coba represents a major Classic period Maya urban center. Archaeological investigations have suggested a complex socioeconomic integration apparent in the heterogeneity of the size, shape, and quality of architecture while demonstrating a clear demarcation between commoner and elite compounds in addition to a complex system of raised roads (sacbeob). Results of the 1974–1976 mapping efforts at Coba revealed a generalized concentric settlement pattern with elite compounds concentrated at the core. In their analysis of the settlement patterns at Tikal, Guatemala, Arnold and Ford challenged this concentric model. Their analysis of labor investment in structures within the 9 km²core area of Tikal suggested, in contrast to Coba, a scattered rather than a concentric pattern of high-status architecture. Using a geographic information system (GIS), we tested our concentric model hypothesis for Coba by applying Arnold and Ford's work investment parameters. Our results confirmed the presence of a concentric pattern of high-status architecture at Coba closest to the core that differed from Arnold and Ford's findings of a scattered pattern in Tikal. These unique and discrete findings suggest that all major cities in the Maya area may not possess identical settlement patterns. To support our findings indicating urbanism, we also make a detailed analysis of the Coba and Calakmul demographics focusing on the Late Classic period.

Gunn, J. D., V. L. Scarborough, W. J. Folan, C. Isendahl, A. F. Chase, J. A. Sabloff, and B. Volta. 2016. A distribution analysis of the central Maya lowlands ecoinformation network: its rises, falls, and changes. Ecology and Society 22(1):20. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08931-220120