Global rapid expansion of the coastal aquaculture industry has made great contributions to enhance food security, but has also caused a series of ecological and environmental issues. Sustainable management of coastal areas requires the explicit and efficient mapping of the spatial distribution of aquaculture ponds. In this study, a Google Earth Engine (GEE) application was developed for mapping coastal aquaculture ponds at a national scale with a novel classification scheme using Sentinel-1 time series data. Relevant indices used in the classification mainly include the water index, texture, and geometric metrics derived from radar backscatter, which were then used to segment and classify aquaculture ponds. Using this approach, we classified aquaculture ponds for the full extent of the coastal area in Vietnam with an overall accuracy of 90.16% (based on independent sample evaluation). The approach, enabling wall-to-wall mapping and area estimation, is essential to the efficient monitoring and management of aquaculture ponds. The classification results showed that aquaculture ponds are widely distributed in Vietnam’s coastal area and are concentrated in the Mekong River Delta and Red River delta (85.14% of the total area), which are facing the increasing collective risk of climate change (e.g., sea level rise and salinity intrusion). Further investigation of the classification results also provides significant insights into the stability and deliverability of the approach. The water index derived from annual median radar backscatter intensity was determined to be efficient at mapping water bodies, likely due to its strong response to water bodies regardless of weather. The geometric metrics considering the spatial variation of radar backscatter patterns were effective at distinguishing aquaculture ponds from other water bodies. The primary use of GEE in this approach makes it replicable and transferable by other users. Our approach lays a solid foundation for intelligent monitoring and management of coastal ecosystems.
The ecological and environmental science communities have embraced machine learning (ML) for empirical modelling and prediction. However, going beyond prediction to draw insights into underlying functional relationships between response variables and environmental ‘drivers’ is less straightforward. Deriving ecological insights from fitted ML models requires techniques to extract the ‘learning’ hidden in the ML models. We revisit the theoretical background and effectiveness of four approaches for deriving insights from ML: ranking independent variable importance (Gini importance, GI; permutation importance, PI; split importance, SI; and conditional permutation importance, CPI), and two approaches for inference of bivariate functional relationships (partial dependence plots, PDP; and accumulated local effect plots, ALE). We also explore the use of a surrogate model for visualization and interpretation of complex multi‐variate relationships between response variables and environmental drivers. We examine the challenges and opportunities for extracting ecological insights with these interpretation approaches. Specifically, we aim to improve interpretation of ML models by investigating how effectiveness relates to (a) interpretation algorithm, (b) sample size and (c) the presence of spurious explanatory variables. We base the analysis on simulations with known underlying functional relationships between response and predictor variables, with added white noise and the presence of correlated but non‐influential variables. The results indicate that deriving ecological insight is strongly affected by interpretation algorithm and spurious variables, and moderately impacted by sample size. Removing spurious variables improves interpretation of ML models. Meanwhile, increasing sample size has limited value in the presence of spurious variables, but increasing sample size does improves performance once spurious variables are omitted. Among the four ranking methods, SI is slightly more effective than the other methods in the presence of spurious variables, while GI and SI yield higher accuracy when spurious variables are removed. PDP is more effective in retrieving underlying functional relationships than ALE, but its reliability declines sharply in the presence of spurious variables. Visualization and interpretation of the interactive effects of predictors and the response variable can be enhanced using surrogate models, including three‐dimensional visualizations and use of loess planes to represent independent variable effects and interactions. Machine learning analysts should be aware that including correlated independent variables in ML models with no clear causal relationship to response variables can interfere with ecological inference. When ecological inference is important, ML models should be constructed with independent variables that have clear causal effects on response variables. While interpreting ML models for ecological inference remains challenging, we show that careful choice of interpretation methods, exclusion of spurious variables and adequate sample size can provide more and better opportunities to ‘learn from machine learning’.
Using LULC change detection analysis, it is possible to identify changes due to urbanization, deforestation, or a natural disaster in an area. As population growth and urbanization increase, real-time solutions for the effects of urbanization on land use are required to assess its implications for food security and livelihood. This study seeks to identify and quantify recent LULC changes in Limbe, Cameroon, and to measure rates of conversion between agricultural, forest, and urban lands between 1986 and 2020 using remote sensing and GIS. Also, there is a deficiency of research employing these data to evaluate the efficiency of LULC satellite data and a lack of awareness by local stakeholders regarding the impact on LULC change. The changes were identified in four classes utilizing maximum supervised classification in ENVI and ArcGIS environments. The classification result reveals that the 2020 image has the highest overall accuracy of 94.6 while the 2002 image has an overall accuracy of 89.2%. The overall gain for agriculture was approximately 4.6 km2, urban had an overall gain of nearly 12.7 km2, while the overall loss for forest was −16.9 km2 during this period. Much of the land area previously occupied by forest is declining as pressures for urban areas and new settlements increase. This study’s findings have significant policy implications for sustainable land use and food security. It also provides a spatial method for monitoring LULC variations that can be used as a framework by stakeholders who are interested in environmentally conscious development and sustainable land use practices.