Nowadays, the integration of renewable energy sources, especially grid-connected photovoltaic, into electrical power systems, is increasing dramatically. There are several stimulants especially in the Java-Bali power system, including huge solar potential, a national renewable energy (RE) target, regulation support for prosumers, photovoltaic technology development, and multi-year power system planning. However, significant annual photovoltaic penetration can lead to critical issues, including a drop of netload during the day, ramping capability, and minimal load operation for thermal power plants. This study analyses the duck curve phenomenon in the Java-Bali power system that considers high shares of the baseload power plant and specific scenarios in photovoltaic (PV) penetration and electricity demand growth. This study also analyses future netload, need for fast ramping rate capability, and oversupply issues in the Java-Bali power system. The results showed that the duck curve phenomenon appears with a significant netload drop in the middle of the day because of high power generation from grid-connected PV. Furthermore, the need for fast ramp rate capability is critical for a higher peak load combined with the lowest netload valley. Moreover, the significant load growth with high grid-connected PV penetration level caused unit commitment issues for thermal power plants as baseload operators.

Indonesia’s commitment to the early retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) underscores the urgent need to transition to renewable energy due to coal’s significant contribution to environmental degradation and rising CO₂ emissions. Despite this urgency, several challenges impede the widespread adoption of renewable energy, including disparities in energy access, inadequate policy implementation, unreliable government financing mechanisms, and lack of education and awareness, especially due to the current incorporation of hydrogen and nuclear energy. To overcome these barriers, a robust policy framework is essential, complemented by progressive policy enactment. This study examines Indonesia’s evolving energy landscape, highlighting key challenges and opportunities for the implementation of renewable energy. The findings emphasize that a comprehensive and integrated roadmap is critical to unlocking Indonesia’s renewable energy potential. The roadmap includes strengthening governance, fostering public–private collaborations, and securing diverse financing channels, while offering targeted incentives, such as tax breaks and financial benefits. Furthermore, conducting pre-feasibility studies and regional assessments for emerging energy sources, like hydrogen and nuclear power, is crucial to accurately evaluate potential risks and opportunities. By addressing gaps in regulatory framework and enforcing effective policy measures, Indonesia can facilitate public–private partnerships, promote technology transfer, and develop skilled workforce as an effort to transition into a sustainable and diversified energy future.

Indonesia’s power generation roadmap aspires to achieve 23%, 28%, and 31% of power from renewable energy by 2025, 2038, and 2050, respectively. This study presents a technoeconomic analysis of Indonesia’s power generation development plans using the LEAP model in the post-COVID-19 period, with a focus on achieving the renewable target. In this study, four scenarios were modeled: business as usual (BAU), cost optimization (CO), national plan (NP), and zero-carbon (ZC). The BAU scenario is based on the PLN Electricity Business Plan 2019–2028, which does not include a target for renewable energy. The CO scenario aims to meet the renewable energy mandate at the lowest possible cost. The NP scenario aims to achieve renewable energy, with an additional natural gas target of 22% by 2025 and 25% by 2038. The ZC scenario aims to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050 at the lowest possible cost. In comparison to the other scenarios, the BAU scenario has the highest total cost of power production, with a total of 180.51 billion USD by 2050. The CO scenario has the lowest total cost of production with a total of 89.21 billion USD; however, it may not be practical to implement.

This study aims to assess the feasibility of achieving Indonesia’s net-zero emissions target by 2060 through a model of future power generation using renewable energy sources using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) software. There are five projected power generation scenarios in this research: the reference (REF) scenario, the conservative (CON) scenario, the moderate (MOD) scenario, the progressive (PRO) scenario, and the advanced (ADV) scenario. The availability of renewable energy technology differentiates each scenario. The ADV scenario, which utilizes nuclear power and energy storage, achieves the 100% renewable energy target by 2060 at the lowest total cost. However, the costs of CON and MOD are not significantly higher. Indonesia should decommission existing fossil fuel power plants and construct more renewable energy power plants to achieve the net-zero emissions target. Based on the simulation, biomass energy is the least favorable type of energy. Solar becomes an option only when other renewable energies are at their maximum potential capacity. Furthermore, nuclear energy and energy storage is essential for Indonesia to achieve the renewable target.