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Carlos Escalante-Sandoval
National Autonomous University of México

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Chapter
Published: 07 May 2020 in World Water Resources
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In general, lack of water affects agriculture, livestock, public supply, industry, electric power generation, and flora and fauna. In northern Mexico, lack of rainfall mainly affects the crops of rain-fed agriculture and as a result the annual average affected area is 1,100,000 hectares; however, this surface will increase due to meteorological conditions related to climate change. In addition, this region has 38 irrigation districts covering a surface area of 2,212,800 hectares (68% of the surface of all irrigation districts in the country), and it is expected that climate change will affect the levels of the crops’ evaporation (ET). The food requirements of a growing population will increase the demand for water and sowing surface, altering soil use and the environment, and, because of this, will increase water stress in the region. The aim of this study is to estimate the long-term water availability required to satisfy the future demands of the agricultural sector and to determine the water stress generated in the region, by considering the future effects of climate change. The simulations consider the prevailing conditions up to 2013 and the rainfall anomalies for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and (RCP) 8.5 scenarios in this part of the country. The results indicate that effects of climate change will reduce the total renewable water resources from 76,554 hm3/year (2015) to 55,367 hm3/year for the RCP 4.5 (2039) or 36,356 hm3/year for the RCP 8.5 (2099). Moreover, the irrigation requirements will increase from 34,048 hm3/year (RCP 4.5) or 57,226 hm3/year (RCP 8.5).

ACS Style

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval. Expected Impacts on Agriculture Due to Climate Change in Northern Mexico. World Water Resources 2020, 197 -217.

AMA Style

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval. Expected Impacts on Agriculture Due to Climate Change in Northern Mexico. World Water Resources. 2020; ():197-217.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval. 2020. "Expected Impacts on Agriculture Due to Climate Change in Northern Mexico." World Water Resources , no. : 197-217.

Technical note
Published: 30 August 2019 in Water
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Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are empirical mathematical formulations that have been used for years in engineering for planning, design, and operation of hydraulic projects. The expression proposed by Sherman (1931) has been validated and used largely by many researchers. In all cases, the four parameters of this formulation are obtained through a numerical procedure. Although these parameters are obtained from historical rainfall observations, the optimization of these parameters implies an infinite combination between them and all those solutions would be valid. Of the four parameters, only one of them (C) has units, and for this reason, a physical sense of parameter C is searched for. Having certainty that some of them can be measured in situ would represent a great advance for modern hydrology. With data from 523 storms monitored every minute, a parametric adjustment was made to the Sherman equation and the typical duration of storms at each site was also obtained. To demonstrate how rainfall intensities vary with the change in C value, rainfall intensities calculations for of 5, 10, 15, and 20 min rainfall duration are used to validate the proposed methodology. The results show that typical storm duration is correlated with the additive parameter of Sherman’s formula.

ACS Style

Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Sergio Bernardo Jimenez-Hernandez; Carlos Escalante Sandoval; Gutierrez- Lopez; Jimenez Hernandez; Escalante Sandoval. Physical Parameterization of IDF Curves Based on Short-Duration Storms. Water 2019, 11, 1813 .

AMA Style

Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Sergio Bernardo Jimenez-Hernandez, Carlos Escalante Sandoval, Gutierrez- Lopez, Jimenez Hernandez, Escalante Sandoval. Physical Parameterization of IDF Curves Based on Short-Duration Storms. Water. 2019; 11 (9):1813.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Sergio Bernardo Jimenez-Hernandez; Carlos Escalante Sandoval; Gutierrez- Lopez; Jimenez Hernandez; Escalante Sandoval. 2019. "Physical Parameterization of IDF Curves Based on Short-Duration Storms." Water 11, no. 9: 1813.

Article
Published: 24 October 2016 in Journal of Arid Land
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Meteorological drought has been an inevitable natural disaster throughout Mexican history and the northern and northwestern parts of Mexico (i.e., the studied area), where the mean annual precipitation (MAP) is less than 500 mm, have suffered even more from droughts in the past. The aim of this study was to conduct a meteorological drought analysis of the available MAP data (1950–2013) from 649 meteorological stations selected from the studied area and to predict the drought features under the different IPCC-prescribed climate change scenarios. To determine the long-term drought features, we collected 1×104 synthetic samples using the periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) model for each rainfall series. The simulations first consider the present prevailing precipitation conditions (i.e., the average from 1950 to 2013) and then the precipitation anomalies under IPCC-prescribed RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP 8.5 scenario. The results indicated that the climate changes under the prescribed scenarios would significantly increase the duration and intensity of droughts. The most severe impacts may occur in the central plateau and in the Baja California Peninsula. Thus, it will be necessary to establish adequate protective measures for the sustainable management of water resources in these regions.

ACS Style

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval; Pedro Nuñez-Garcia. Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios. Journal of Arid Land 2016, 9, 65 -75.

AMA Style

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval, Pedro Nuñez-Garcia. Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios. Journal of Arid Land. 2016; 9 (1):65-75.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carlos Escalante-Sandoval; Pedro Nuñez-Garcia. 2016. "Meteorological drought features in northern and northwestern parts of Mexico under different climate change scenarios." Journal of Arid Land 9, no. 1: 65-75.