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Kriging is used for spatial interpolation of geophysical and hydrological variables. This technique requires the definition of a mathematical function of spatial correlation known as variogram. Extreme value mapping is critical for the analysis of hydrological problems such as multiple risk and disaster damage valuation. However, the formulation of a variogram is complex and the selection of the variogram model is often crucial in the final representation of extreme values. There is some evidence that a variogram estimator may reduce the negative impact of using data samples with outliers. This is an approach that eliminates the term that takes into consideration the squared differences of empirical values in the calculation of a variogram. Known as Cressie–Hawkins Estimator (CH), it is based on considering a Gaussian distribution for the calculation of the variogram. The CH satisfies the main statistical considerations of normality; however, the formulation of kurtosis is not used to guarantee total normality. The present paper modifies the CH, adding the term corresponding to the fourth statistical moment. The numerical example proposed in the literature to evaluate the efficiency of the CH is reproduced, and it is verified that the new variogram (CH-GLo) decreases further the effect of the extreme values in the cartography. CH-GLo is applied to cartography an extreme storm that happened in August 2014 in the city of Queretaro, Mexico. It is concluded that this new variogram formulation is a suitable alternative for mapping extreme values monitored in real-time in urban areas.
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez. A Robust Gaussian variogram estimator for cartography of hydrological extreme events. Natural Hazards 2021, 1 -20.
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez. A Robust Gaussian variogram estimator for cartography of hydrological extreme events. Natural Hazards. 2021; ():1-20.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez. 2021. "A Robust Gaussian variogram estimator for cartography of hydrological extreme events." Natural Hazards , no. : 1-20.
In the present work, we construct several artificial neural networks (varying the input data) to calculate the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K
Josué Trejo-Alonso; Carlos Fuentes; Carlos Chávez; Antonio Quevedo; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Brandon González-Correa. Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation Using Artificial Neural Networks. Water 2021, 13, 705 .
AMA StyleJosué Trejo-Alonso, Carlos Fuentes, Carlos Chávez, Antonio Quevedo, Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Brandon González-Correa. Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation Using Artificial Neural Networks. Water. 2021; 13 (5):705.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJosué Trejo-Alonso; Carlos Fuentes; Carlos Chávez; Antonio Quevedo; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Brandon González-Correa. 2021. "Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation Using Artificial Neural Networks." Water 13, no. 5: 705.
A basic review regarding the origin of precipitation and its spatial and temporal distribution in the southern region of Mexico is presented. The origin of extreme rainfall events that caused severe damage in the Mexican states of Chiapas and Tabasco in October 2007 is analyzed in detail. The cartography of hydrologic variables is considered in its historical perspective, and the basis for the study of the spatial dependence of these variables in a geographical and physical environment is also introduced. An example of the interpretation of directional variograms is presented, and how this mathematical function can represent spatial variability and form rainfall patterns within a region through a kriging procedure is explained. Directional variograms for the rainy months in Chiapas and Tabasco are estimated. The analyses of satellite images confirm that theoretical variograms are the right tool to faithfully represent the spatial variability of a hydrologic phenomenon. The results presented in this paper show that there exist, in this region of Mexico, rain patterns that can be analyzed through geostatistical methods and that the selection of the variogram to carry out a kriging interpolation implies much more than a simple visual adjustment.
Alfonso Gutierrez-López; Marilú Meza-Ruiz; Jose Vargas-Baecheler. Analysis of the Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Fields in the Southeast of Mexico, Using Directional Variograms. World Water Resources 2020, 255 -270.
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-López, Marilú Meza-Ruiz, Jose Vargas-Baecheler. Analysis of the Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Fields in the Southeast of Mexico, Using Directional Variograms. World Water Resources. 2020; ():255-270.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-López; Marilú Meza-Ruiz; Jose Vargas-Baecheler. 2020. "Analysis of the Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Fields in the Southeast of Mexico, Using Directional Variograms." World Water Resources , no. : 255-270.
The period of hurricanes extends along the Mexican coast from May to October and year after year causes considerable economic and human damage. An important part of risk management during a disaster of this type is the operation of dams. Many of these structures are used for water supply and electric-power generation; however, their maximum flow-control capacity is of great importance for flood-risk management. The hydrometric data of 15 stations located within the basin of the El Caracol dam are used. Maximum precipitation data are also used in 27 stations within the basin. Note that the series used contain data for years with hurricane records. With these data, a regional frequency analysis is performed using the Gradex approach, which highlights the impact of precipitation from hurricane events. Using a matrix of physiographic, climatological, and environmental basin characteristics, in addition to the characteristics of the reservoir and the operation of the dam, a principal component analysis EOF is performed to prioritize the variables that must be included in the operation policy of the dam. With the satellite images recorded every 15 min, the precipitation intensities of the hurricanes are calculated using the hydro-estimator technique and correlated with the flow rates measured by performing a canonical correlation analysis. The results show that downscaling between the precipitation data coming from the satellite images and the measured flow rates on the surface, it is possible to propose a policy for the supply and control operation of dams. The conclusion is that the hydro-estimator techniques together with the canonical correlation analysis are adequate procedures to propose the operation policies in dams during the hurricane season.
Juan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; Alfonso Gutierrez-López; Ivonne Cruz Paz. Dam-Operation Policy During Hurricane Season Using Regional Flows with Canonical Correlation Analysis. World Water Resources 2020, 219 -236.
AMA StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar, Alfonso Gutierrez-López, Ivonne Cruz Paz. Dam-Operation Policy During Hurricane Season Using Regional Flows with Canonical Correlation Analysis. World Water Resources. 2020; ():219-236.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; Alfonso Gutierrez-López; Ivonne Cruz Paz. 2020. "Dam-Operation Policy During Hurricane Season Using Regional Flows with Canonical Correlation Analysis." World Water Resources , no. : 219-236.
Currently, it is possible to access a large amount of satellite weather information from monitoring and forecasting severe storms. However, there are no methods of employing satellite images that can improve real-time early warning systems in different regions of Mexico. The auto-estimator is the most commonly used technique that was developed for specific locations in the United States of America (32°–49° latitude) for the type of convective storms. However, the estimation of precipitation intensities for meteorological conditions in tropic latitudes, using the auto-estimator technique, needs to be re-adjusted and calibrated. It is necessary to improve this type of technique that allows decision-makers to have hydro-informatic tools capable of improving early warning systems in tropical regions (15°–25° Mexican tropic latitude). The main objective of the work is to estimate rainfall from satellite imagery in the infrared (IR) spectrum from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), validating these estimates with a network of surface rain gauges. Using the GOES-13 IR images every 15 min and using the auto-estimator, a downscaling of six hurricanes was performed from which surface precipitation events were measured. The two main difficulties were to match the satellite images taken every 15 min with the surface data measured every 10 min and to develop a program in C+ that would allow the systematic analysis of the images. The results of this work allow us to get a new adjustment of coefficients in a new equation of the auto-estimator, valid for rain produced by hurricanes, something that has not been done until now. Although no universal relationship has been found for hurricane rainfall, it is evident that the original formula of the auto-estimator technique needs to be modified according to geographical latitude.
Marilu Meza-Ruiz; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez. Goes-13 IR Images for Rainfall Forecasting in Hurricane Storms. Forecasting 2020, 2, 85 -101.
AMA StyleMarilu Meza-Ruiz, Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez. Goes-13 IR Images for Rainfall Forecasting in Hurricane Storms. Forecasting. 2020; 2 (2):85-101.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarilu Meza-Ruiz; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez. 2020. "Goes-13 IR Images for Rainfall Forecasting in Hurricane Storms." Forecasting 2, no. 2: 85-101.
Forecasting extreme precipitations is one of the main priorities of hydrology in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Flood damage in urban areas increases every year, and is mainly caused by convective precipitations and hurricanes. In addition, hydrometeorological monitoring is limited in most countries in this region. Therefore, one of the primary challenges in the LAC region the development of a good rainfall forecasting model that can be used in an early warning system (EWS) or a flood early warning system (FEWS). The aim of this study was to provide an effective forecast of short-term rainfall using a set of climatic variables, based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship and taking into account that atmospheric water vapor is one of the variables that determine most meteorological phenomena, particularly regarding precipitation. As a consequence, a simple precipitation forecast model was proposed from data monitored at every minute, such as humidity, surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, and dewpoint. With access to a historical database of 1237 storms, the proposed model allows use of the right combination of these variables to make an accurate forecast of the time of storm onset. The results indicate that the proposed methodology was capable of predicting precipitation onset as a function of the atmospheric pressure, humidity, and dewpoint. The synoptic forecast model was implemented as a hydroinformatics tool in the Extreme Precipitation Monitoring Network of the city of Queretaro, Mexico (RedCIAQ). The improved forecasts provided by the proposed methodology are expected to be useful to support disaster warning systems all over Mexico, mainly during hurricanes and flashfloods.
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Ivonne Cruz-Paz; Martin Muñoz Mandujano. Algorithm to Predict the Rainfall Starting Point as a Function of Atmospheric Pressure, Humidity, and Dewpoint. Climate 2019, 7, 131 .
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Ivonne Cruz-Paz, Martin Muñoz Mandujano. Algorithm to Predict the Rainfall Starting Point as a Function of Atmospheric Pressure, Humidity, and Dewpoint. Climate. 2019; 7 (11):131.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Ivonne Cruz-Paz; Martin Muñoz Mandujano. 2019. "Algorithm to Predict the Rainfall Starting Point as a Function of Atmospheric Pressure, Humidity, and Dewpoint." Climate 7, no. 11: 131.
Different regions of Mexico are affected temporarily by tropical cyclones whose evidence is reflected in the record of annual maximum flows of stream gages. The statistical analysis of these records presents two different trends represented by the Gumbel mixed distribution function. In order to achieve a reliable character of the historical information, it is necessary to determine the parameters of the function; therefore, the present work shows its optimization by means of the metaheuristic technique harmonic search verifying the influence of the bandwidth parameter in the solution. It was observed that the arithmetic expressions that define the bandwidth generate a better performance with respect to those that include exponential or logarithms. It is concluded that the technique achieves the optimization of the five parameters of the univariate Gumbel mixed function in an agile way, in particular the probability and the non-cyclonic elements, decreasing the adjustment error generated with respect to the classical methodologies, which improves upon having extensive historical records.
Juan Pablo Molina–Aguilar; M. Alfonso Gutiérrez–López. Influence of the bandwidth in the harmonic search to optimize the mixed univariate Gumbel function. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2019, 139, 801 -813.
AMA StyleJuan Pablo Molina–Aguilar, M. Alfonso Gutiérrez–López. Influence of the bandwidth in the harmonic search to optimize the mixed univariate Gumbel function. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2019; 139 (1-2):801-813.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJuan Pablo Molina–Aguilar; M. Alfonso Gutiérrez–López. 2019. "Influence of the bandwidth in the harmonic search to optimize the mixed univariate Gumbel function." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 139, no. 1-2: 801-813.
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro; Raisa Barragán-Regalado; Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López. Ajuste de curvas IDF a partir de tormentas de corta duración. Tecnología y ciencias del agua 2019, 10, 01 -24.
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro, Raisa Barragán-Regalado, Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López. Ajuste de curvas IDF a partir de tormentas de corta duración. Tecnología y ciencias del agua. 2019; 10 (6):01-24.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro; Raisa Barragán-Regalado; Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López. 2019. "Ajuste de curvas IDF a partir de tormentas de corta duración." Tecnología y ciencias del agua 10, no. 6: 01-24.
Juan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Ivonne Monserrat Cruz-Paz; Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López. Correlación canónica entre volúmenes de almacenamiento en presas e intensidades de precipitación durante huracanes. Tecnología y ciencias del agua 2019, 10, 25 -56.
AMA StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar, México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro, Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Ivonne Monserrat Cruz-Paz, Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López. Correlación canónica entre volúmenes de almacenamiento en presas e intensidades de precipitación durante huracanes. Tecnología y ciencias del agua. 2019; 10 (6):25-56.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Ivonne Monserrat Cruz-Paz; Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López. 2019. "Correlación canónica entre volúmenes de almacenamiento en presas e intensidades de precipitación durante huracanes." Tecnología y ciencias del agua 10, no. 6: 25-56.
Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are empirical mathematical formulations that have been used for years in engineering for planning, design, and operation of hydraulic projects. The expression proposed by Sherman (1931) has been validated and used largely by many researchers. In all cases, the four parameters of this formulation are obtained through a numerical procedure. Although these parameters are obtained from historical rainfall observations, the optimization of these parameters implies an infinite combination between them and all those solutions would be valid. Of the four parameters, only one of them (C) has units, and for this reason, a physical sense of parameter C is searched for. Having certainty that some of them can be measured in situ would represent a great advance for modern hydrology. With data from 523 storms monitored every minute, a parametric adjustment was made to the Sherman equation and the typical duration of storms at each site was also obtained. To demonstrate how rainfall intensities vary with the change in C value, rainfall intensities calculations for of 5, 10, 15, and 20 min rainfall duration are used to validate the proposed methodology. The results show that typical storm duration is correlated with the additive parameter of Sherman’s formula.
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Sergio Bernardo Jimenez-Hernandez; Carlos Escalante Sandoval; Gutierrez- Lopez; Jimenez Hernandez; Escalante Sandoval. Physical Parameterization of IDF Curves Based on Short-Duration Storms. Water 2019, 11, 1813 .
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Sergio Bernardo Jimenez-Hernandez, Carlos Escalante Sandoval, Gutierrez- Lopez, Jimenez Hernandez, Escalante Sandoval. Physical Parameterization of IDF Curves Based on Short-Duration Storms. Water. 2019; 11 (9):1813.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Sergio Bernardo Jimenez-Hernandez; Carlos Escalante Sandoval; Gutierrez- Lopez; Jimenez Hernandez; Escalante Sandoval. 2019. "Physical Parameterization of IDF Curves Based on Short-Duration Storms." Water 11, no. 9: 1813.
La cartografía en hidrología es una de las formas tradicionales de representar la variabilidad espacial de eventos climáticos y ambientales. Sin embargo, pocas veces se pone atención a cómo se construyen, por ejemplo los mapas de isoyetas. Una incorrecta selección del método de interpolación espacial, puede ocasionar errores en la estimación de magnitudes. Se realiza una caracterización espacial y temporal de la variabilidad en la precipitación horaria de la zona metropolitana de Santiago de Querétaro. Se utilizan láminas de lluvia medidas a cada minuto de las diez tormentas más intensas registradas en los años 2013, 2014 y 2015. Utilizando variogramas direccionales, distancia entre estaciones y un esquema de anisotropía; se obtienen los parámetros óptimos a emplear en una interpolación por Kriging. Los resultados muestran que en el mes de junio existe una mayor variabilidad de la precipitación en la zona metropolitana y que la lámina de precipitación tiene una correlación directa con la distancia entre estaciones. El análisis permite seleccionar de forma correcta los variogramas direccionales que deben emplearse para la interpolación espacial y la cartografía de campos de lluvia.
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Mabel Fortanell Trejo; Nadia Ingrid Albuquerque Gonzalez; Fernando Bravo Prado. Análisis de la variabilidad espacial en la precipitación en la zona metropolitana de Querétaro empleando ecuaciones de anisotropía. Investigaciones Geográficas 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Mabel Fortanell Trejo, Nadia Ingrid Albuquerque Gonzalez, Fernando Bravo Prado. Análisis de la variabilidad espacial en la precipitación en la zona metropolitana de Querétaro empleando ecuaciones de anisotropía. Investigaciones Geográficas. 2019; (99):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Mabel Fortanell Trejo; Nadia Ingrid Albuquerque Gonzalez; Fernando Bravo Prado. 2019. "Análisis de la variabilidad espacial en la precipitación en la zona metropolitana de Querétaro empleando ecuaciones de anisotropía." Investigaciones Geográficas , no. 99: 1.
Due to its geographical position, Mexico is exposed annually to cold fronts and tropical cyclones, registering extremely high values that are atypical in the series of maximum annual flows. Univariate mixed probability distribution functions have been developed based on the theory of extreme values, which require techniques to determine their parameters. Therefore, this paper explores a function that considers three populations to analyze maximum annual flows. According to the structure of the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution (GEV), the simultaneous definition of nine parameters is required: three of location, three of scale, and three of probability of occurrence. Thus, the use of a meta-heuristic technique was proposed (harmonic search). The precision of the adjustment was increased through the optimization of the parameters, and with it came a reduction in the uncertainty of the forecast, particularly for cyclonic events. It is concluded that the use of an extreme value distribution (Type I) structured with three populations and accompanied by the technique of harmonic search improves the performance in respect to classic techniques for the determination of its parameters.
Juan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Jose Angel Raynal-Villaseñor; Luis Gabriel Garcia-Valenzuela. Optimization of Parameters in the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution Type 1 for Three Populations Using Harmonic Search. Atmosphere 2019, 10, 257 .
AMA StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar, Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Jose Angel Raynal-Villaseñor, Luis Gabriel Garcia-Valenzuela. Optimization of Parameters in the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution Type 1 for Three Populations Using Harmonic Search. Atmosphere. 2019; 10 (5):257.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Jose Angel Raynal-Villaseñor; Luis Gabriel Garcia-Valenzuela. 2019. "Optimization of Parameters in the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution Type 1 for Three Populations Using Harmonic Search." Atmosphere 10, no. 5: 257.
Juan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro Centro De Investigaciones Del Agua. División De Investigación Y Posgrado Facultad De Ingeniería; Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López; Francisco Javier Aparicio-Mijares; Jiutepec División De Estudios De Postgrado De La Facultad De Ingeniería. Universidad Nacional Autónoma De México. Búsqueda Armónica para optimizar la función Gumbel Mixta univariada. Tecnología y ciencias del agua 2018, 9, 280 -322.
AMA StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar, Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro Centro De Investigaciones Del Agua. División De Investigación Y Posgrado Facultad De Ingeniería, Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López, Francisco Javier Aparicio-Mijares, Jiutepec División De Estudios De Postgrado De La Facultad De Ingeniería. Universidad Nacional Autónoma De México. Búsqueda Armónica para optimizar la función Gumbel Mixta univariada. Tecnología y ciencias del agua. 2018; 9 (5):280-322.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJuan Pablo Molina-Aguilar; Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro Centro De Investigaciones Del Agua. División De Investigación Y Posgrado Facultad De Ingeniería; Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López; Francisco Javier Aparicio-Mijares; Jiutepec División De Estudios De Postgrado De La Facultad De Ingeniería. Universidad Nacional Autónoma De México. 2018. "Búsqueda Armónica para optimizar la función Gumbel Mixta univariada." Tecnología y ciencias del agua 9, no. 5: 280-322.
The hydrometeorological information is shown in the form of intensity, duration and period of return of extreme rains, in order to characterize the pluviometric regime in Haiti. Using information from health services in Haiti a Meteo-Epidemiological Vulnerability Index (MEVI) is proposed. This index uses infectious-contagious disease data, the capacity and distribution of medical infrastructure, physiographic conditions of the country, and rainfall data (expressed in intensities, durations and frequency). The results show how mortality and morbidity rates are influenced mainly by communicable diseases in different risk areas. It is concluded that the territorial vulnerability exposed to hydrometeorological phenomena increases in the West and South Departments, where there is a high prevalence of diseases that exceeds the capacity of medical attention. With these results, two resilience indexes are proposed. A theoretical index (TRF) based on the conditions of the region, taking into account vulnerability (V), MEVI, resistance (RT) and homeostasis (HO). And another index of resilience measured in situ (RF). The comparison of both indices allows us to know the future capacity of the region to face the activities of resilience.
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Maria Concepción Donoso; Zelmira May; Gabriela Bravo-Orduña. A Meteo-Epidemiological Vulnerability Index as a the resilience factor for the principal regions in Haiti. Journal of Hydrology 2018, 569, 135 -141.
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez, Maria Concepción Donoso, Zelmira May, Gabriela Bravo-Orduña. A Meteo-Epidemiological Vulnerability Index as a the resilience factor for the principal regions in Haiti. Journal of Hydrology. 2018; 569 ():135-141.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez-Lopez; Maria Concepción Donoso; Zelmira May; Gabriela Bravo-Orduña. 2018. "A Meteo-Epidemiological Vulnerability Index as a the resilience factor for the principal regions in Haiti." Journal of Hydrology 569, no. : 135-141.
Martín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López; José Vargas-Baecheler; Víctor Reséndiz-Torres; Ivonne Cruz-Paz; Chile Universidad De Concepción; México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro; México Universidad Del Valle De México. Formulación simplificada de un índice de sequía, empleando una distribución de probabilidad mezclada. Tecnología y ciencias del agua 2016, 7, 135 -149.
AMA StyleMartín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López, José Vargas-Baecheler, Víctor Reséndiz-Torres, Ivonne Cruz-Paz, Chile Universidad De Concepción, México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro, México Universidad Del Valle De México. Formulación simplificada de un índice de sequía, empleando una distribución de probabilidad mezclada. Tecnología y ciencias del agua. 2016; 7 (5):135-149.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMartín Alfonso Gutiérrez-López; José Vargas-Baecheler; Víctor Reséndiz-Torres; Ivonne Cruz-Paz; Chile Universidad De Concepción; México Universidad Autónoma De Querétaro; México Universidad Del Valle De México. 2016. "Formulación simplificada de un índice de sequía, empleando una distribución de probabilidad mezclada." Tecnología y ciencias del agua 7, no. 5: 135-149.
Among surface hydrologic phenomena, it is common to find series of events of random occurrence in time. Poisson processes lead to probabilistic models that are appropriate to explain the number of events produced by certain phenomena. For instance, in surface hydrology, it is quite frequent to relate the Poisson distribution to the occurrence of rainfall events. The so-called leak distribution consists of the simultaneous use of a Poisson law to represent the probability of occurrence of an event and an exponential distribution applied to the mean magnitude of such event. Originally introduced to simulate gas leaks in distribution networks in France, from where it takes its name, the leak distribution has important applications in hydrology. In this paper, the theoretical basis of the law and the method for the estimation of its parameters are introduced. Some applications are included, such as further knowledge of the precipitation regime of hydrologic region No. 10 in Mexico. In this case, through the knowledge of the two parameters of this law, which can be associated to physical variables, it is possible to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in detail. As an additional application, the use of this law in drought analysis is shown. Here, the distribution parameters are related to the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, allowing the construction of a modified SPI that much better represents the spatial variability of drought periods in the watershed. According to the results presented in this chapter, the use of the leak distribution in surface hydrology processes allows deeper knowledge of regional climatology.
Alfonso Gutiérrez-López; Thierry Lebel; Israel Ruiz-González; Luc Descroix; Marcela Duhne-Ramírez. Prediction of Hydrological Risk for Sustainable Use of Water in Northern Mexico. Sustainability of Integrated Water Resources Management 2015, 245 -271.
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutiérrez-López, Thierry Lebel, Israel Ruiz-González, Luc Descroix, Marcela Duhne-Ramírez. Prediction of Hydrological Risk for Sustainable Use of Water in Northern Mexico. Sustainability of Integrated Water Resources Management. 2015; ():245-271.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutiérrez-López; Thierry Lebel; Israel Ruiz-González; Luc Descroix; Marcela Duhne-Ramírez. 2015. "Prediction of Hydrological Risk for Sustainable Use of Water in Northern Mexico." Sustainability of Integrated Water Resources Management , no. : 245-271.
The formulation of Kinoshita curves takes into account a number of physiographic characteristics and the configuration of the river; however, it is the curve amplitude, the one that represents the main characteristic of this formulation. This main feature is known as the angular sinuosity coefficient (θ). In this paper an alternative expression for meander prediction formulation, based on a stochastic multivariate analysis of the geomorphologic and physiographic characteristics of a river is proposed. Stochastic models are used to simulate 3,480 occurrences of the sixteen characteristics proposed to characterize the meandering of Cahuacan River in the Mexican state of Chiapas. The prioritization of the variables obtained through an empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis clearly showed the existence of three groups of parameters, which altogether explain the behavior of the meandering of Cahuacan River. The first group is formed by the morphologic characteristics of the river. The second group corresponds to the hydrologic features of the basin, and the third one to the morphologic and geometric characteristics of the river. The computation of the confidence limits, although from a statistical approach, constitutes a good tool to consolidate the arguments that define the zones at potential risk. The stochastic simulation of the future conditions of the river allows the precise definition of the zones directly in the field.
Alfonso Gutierrez; Vladimir Contreras; Aldo I. Ramírez; Roberto Mejía. Risk Zone Prediction in Meandering Rivers by Using a Multivariate Approach. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 2014, 19, 04014014 .
AMA StyleAlfonso Gutierrez, Vladimir Contreras, Aldo I. Ramírez, Roberto Mejía. Risk Zone Prediction in Meandering Rivers by Using a Multivariate Approach. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. 2014; 19 (9):04014014.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlfonso Gutierrez; Vladimir Contreras; Aldo I. Ramírez; Roberto Mejía. 2014. "Risk Zone Prediction in Meandering Rivers by Using a Multivariate Approach." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 19, no. 9: 04014014.