Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes often pass through states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest for various and prolonged periods of time. Volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest can be highly violent and/or destructive (e.g., phreatic eruptions, secondary lahars), can lead into magmatic and eventually eruptive unrest, and can be more difficult to forecast than magmatic unrest, for various reasons. The duration of a state of non-magmatic unrest and the cause, type and locus of hazardous events can be highly variable. Moreover, non-magmatic hazards can be related to factors external to the volcano (e.g., climate, earthquake). So far, monitoring networks are often limited to the usual seismic-ground deformation-gas network, whereas recognizing indicators for non-magmatic unrest requires additional approaches. In this study we summarize non-magmatic unrest processes and potential indicators for related hazards. We propose an event-tree to classify non-magmatic unrest, which aims to cover all major hazardous outcomes. This structure could become useful for future probabilistic non-magmatic hazard assessments, and might reveal clues for future monitoring strategies.

This study presents the first hydrogeochemical model of the hydrothermal systems of Turrialba and Irazú volcanoes in central Costa Rica, manifested as thermal springs, summit crater lakes, and fumarolic degassing at both volcanoes. Our period of observations (2007–2012) coincides with the pre- and early syn-phreatic eruption stages of Turrialba volcano that resumed volcanic unrest since 2004, after almost 140 years of quiescence. Peculiarly, the generally stable Irazú crater lake dropped its level during this reawakening of Turrialba. The isotopic composition of all the discharged fluids reveals their Caribbean meteoric origin. Four groups of thermal springs drain the northern flanks of Turrialba and Irazú volcanoes into two main rivers. Río Sucio (i.e. “dirty river”) is a major rock remover on the North flank of Irazú, mainly fed by the San Cayetano spring group. Instead, one group of thermal springs discharges towards the south of Irazú. All thermal spring waters are of SO₄-type (i.e. steam-heated waters), none of the springs has, however, a common hydrothermal end-member. A water mass budget for thermal springs results in an estimated total output flux of 187 ± 37 L/s, with 100 ± 20 L/s accounted for by the San Cayetano springs. Thermal energy release is estimated at 110 ± 22 MW (83.9 ± 16.8 MW by San Cayetano), whereas the total rock mass removal rate by chemical leaching is ~ 3000 m³/year (~ 2400 m³/year by San Cayetano-Río Sucio). Despite Irazú being the currently less active volcano, it is a highly efficient rock remover, which, on the long term can have effects on the stability of the volcanic edifice with potentially hazardous consequences (e.g. flank collapse, landslides, phreatic eruptions). Moreover, the vapor output flux from the Turrialba fumaroles after the onset of phreatic eruptions on 5 January 2010 showed an increase of at least ~ 260 L/s above pre-eruptive background fumarolic vapor fluxes. This extra vapor loss implies that the drying of the summit hydrothermal system of Turrialba could tap deeper than previously thought, and could explain the coincidental disappearance of Irazú’s crater lake in April 2010.