The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) is a real‐time, global, physics‐based model used to assess radiation exposure to commercial aircrews and passengers. The model is a free‐running physics‐based model in the sense that there are no adjustment factors applied to nudge the model into agreement with measurements. The model predicts dosimetric quantities in the atmosphere from both galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles, including the response of the geomagnetic field to interplanetary dynamical processes and its subsequent influence on atmospheric dose. The focus of this paper is on atmospheric GCR exposure during geomagnetically quiet conditions, with three main objectives. First, provide detailed descriptions of the NAIRAS GCR transport and dosimetry methodologies. Second, present a climatology of effective dose and ambient dose equivalent rates at typical commercial airline altitudes representative of solar cycle maximum and solar cycle minimum conditions and spanning the full range of geomagnetic cutoff rigidities. Third, conduct an initial validation of the NAIRAS model by comparing predictions of ambient dose equivalent rates with tabulated reference measurement data and recent aircraft radiation measurements taken in 2008 during the minimum between solar cycle 23 and solar cycle 24. By applying the criterion of the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) on acceptable levels of aircraft radiation dose uncertainty for ambient dose equivalent greater than or equal to an annual dose of 1 mSv, the NAIRAS model is within 25% of the measured data, which fall within the ICRU acceptable uncertainty limit of 30%. The NAIRAS model predictions of ambient dose equivalent rate are generally within 50% of the measured data for any single‐point comparison. The largest differences occur at low latitudes and high cutoffs, where the radiation dose level is low. Nevertheless, analysis suggests that these single‐point differences will be within 30% when a new deterministic pion‐initiated electromagnetic cascade code is integrated into NAIRAS, an effort which is currently underway.

The increased radiation exposure at aviation altitudes is of public interest as well as of legal relevance in many countries. The dose rates that are elevated compared to sea level are mainly caused by galactic cosmic ray particles interacting with the atmosphere and producing a complex radiation field at aviation altitudes. The intensity and composition of this radiation field mainly depend on altitude, geomagnetic shielding, and primary particle intensity. In this work, we present a model based on Monte Carlo simulations, which retrospectively estimates secondary particle fluence as well as ambient dose equivalent rates and effective dose rates at any point in the atmosphere. This model will be used as the physical core in the Professional Aviation Dose Calculator (PANDOCA) software developed by the German Aerospace Center (Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt) for the calculation of route doses in aviation. The calculations are based on galactic cosmic ray spectra taking into account primary nuclei from hydrogen to iron by direct transport calculations of hydrogen and helium nuclei and approximating heavier nuclei by the number of protons equaling the corresponding atomic number. A comparison to experimental data recorded on several flights with a tissue equivalent proportional counter shows a very good agreement between model calculations and measurements.

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center has been leading community‐wide space science and space weather model validation projects for many years. These efforts have been broadened and extended via the newly launched International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/). Its objective is to track space weather models' progress and performance over time, a capability that is critically needed in space weather operations and different user communities in general. The Space Radiation and Plasma Effects Working Team of the aforementioned International Forum works on one of the many focused evaluation topics and deals with five different subtopics (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/assessment/topics/radiation‐all.php) and varieties of particle populations: Surface Charging from tens of eV to 50‐keV electrons and internal charging due to energetic electrons from hundreds keV to several MeVs. Single‐event effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays (several MeV to TeV), total dose due to accumulation of doses from electrons (>100 keV) and protons (>1 MeV) in a broad energy range, and radiation effects from solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays at aviation altitudes. A unique aspect of the Space Radiation and Plasma Effects focus area is that it bridges the space environments, engineering, and user communities. The intent of the paper is to provide an overview of the current status and to suggest a guide for how to best validate space environment models for operational/engineering use, which includes selection of essential space environment and effect quantities and appropriate metrics.

The solar energetic particle event on 20 January 2005 was one of the largest ground level events ever observed. Neutron monitor stations in the Antarctic recorded count rate increases of several thousand percent caused by secondary energetic particles, and it took more than 36 h to return to background level. Such huge increases in high energetic solar cosmic radiation on the ground are obviously accompanied by considerable changes in the radiation environment at aviation altitudes. Measurements of 28 neutron monitor stations were used in this work to numerically approximate the primary solar proton spectra during the first 12 h of the event by minimizing the differences between measurements and the results of Monte‐Carlo calculated count rate increases. The primary spectrum of solar energetic protons was approximated by a power law in rigidity and a linear angular distribution. The incoming direction of the solar energetic particles was determined and compared to the interplanetary magnetic field direction during the event. The effects on the radiation exposure at altitudes of about 12 km during that time were estimated to range from none at low latitudes up to almost 2 mSv/h for a very short time in the Antarctic region and about 0.1 mSv/h at high latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere. After 12 h, dose rates were still increased by 50% at latitudes above 60° whereas no increases at all occurred at latitudes below 40° during the whole event.

Exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation has been recognized as an occupational health risk for several decades. Based on the recommendations by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP), many countries and their aviation authorities, respectively have either stipulated legal radiation protection regulations, e.g., in the European Union or issued corresponding advisory circulars, e.g., in the United States of America. Additional sources of ionizing and non-ionizing radiation, e.g., due to weather phenomena have been identified and discussed in the scientific literature in recent years. This article gives an overview of the different generally recognized sources due to weather as well as space weather phenomena that contribute to radiation exposure in the atmosphere and the associated radiation effects that might pose a risk to aviation safety at large, including effects on human health and avionics. Furthermore, potential mitigation measures for several radiation sources and the prerequisites for their use are discussed.

Air safety is tied to the phenomenon of ionizing radiation from space weather, primarily from galactic cosmic rays but also from solar energetic particles. A global framework for addressing radiation issues in this environment has been constructed, but more must be done at international and national levels. Health consequences from atmospheric radiation exposure are likely to exist. In addition, severe solar radiation events may cause economic consequences in the international aviation community due to exposure limits being reached by some crew members. Impacts from a radiation environment upon avionics from high‐energy particles and low‐energy, thermalized neutrons are now recognized as an area of active interest. A broad community recognizes that there are a number of mitigation paths that can be taken relative to the human tissue and avionics exposure risks. These include developing active monitoring and measurement programs as well as improving scientific modeling capabilities that can eventually be turned into operations. A number of roadblocks to risk mitigation still exist, such as effective pilot training programs as well as monitoring, measuring, and regulatory measures. An active international effort toward observing the weather of atmospheric radiation must occur to make progress in mitigating radiation exposure risks. Stakeholders in this process include standard‐making bodies, scientific organizations, regulatory organizations, air traffic management systems, aircraft owners and operators, pilots and crew, and even the public.