Grain yield is increasingly affected by climate factors such as drought and heat. To develop resilient and high-yielding cultivars, high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) techniques are essential for precise decisions in wheat breeding. The ability of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral imaging and ensemble learning methods to increase the accuracy of grain yield prediction in practical breeding work is evaluated in this study. For this, 211 winter wheat genotypes were planted under full and limited irrigation treatments, and multispectral data were collected at heading, flowering, early grain filling (EGF), and mid-grain filling (MGF) stages. Twenty multispectral vegetation indices (VIs) were estimated, and VIs with heritability greater than 0.5 were selected to evaluate the models across the growth stages under both irrigation treatments. A framework for ensemble learning was developed by combining multiple base models such as random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian process (GP), and ridge regression (RR). The R² values between VIs and grain yield for individual base models were ranged from 0.468 to 0.580 and 0.537 to 0.598 for grain yield prediction in full and limited irrigation treatments across growth stages, respectively. The prediction results of ensemble models were ranged from 0.491 to 0.616 and 0.560 to 0.616 under full and limited irrigation treatments respectively, and were higher than that of the corresponding base learners. Moreover, the grain yield prediction results were observed high at mid grain filling stage under both full (R² = 0.625) and limited (R² = 0.628) irrigation treatments through ensemble learning based stacking of four base learners. Further improvements in ensemble learning models can accelerate the use of UAV-based multispectral data for accurate predictions of complex traits like grain yield in wheat.

Accurate forecasting of crop yields holds paramount importance in guiding decision-making processes related to breeding efforts. Despite significant advancements in crop yield forecasting, existing methods often struggle with integrating diverse sensor data and achieving high prediction accuracy under varying environmental conditions. This study focused on the application of multi-sensor data fusion and machine learning algorithms based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in wheat yield prediction. Five machine learning (ML) algorithms, namely random forest (RF), partial least squares (PLS), ridge regression (RR), k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and extreme gradient boosting decision tree (XGboost), were utilized for multi-sensor data fusion, together with three ensemble methods including the second-level ensemble methods (stacking and feature-weighted) and the third-level ensemble method (simple average), for wheat yield prediction. The 270 wheat hybrids were used as planting materials under full and limited irrigation treatments. A cost-effective multi-sensor UAV platform, equipped with red–green–blue (RGB), multispectral (MS), and thermal infrared (TIR) sensors, was utilized to gather remote sensing data. The results revealed that the XGboost algorithm exhibited outstanding performance in multi-sensor data fusion, with the RGB + MS + Texture + TIR combination demonstrating the highest fusion performance (R² = 0.660, RMSE = 0.754). Compared with the single ML model, the employment of three ensemble methods significantly enhanced the accuracy of wheat yield prediction. Notably, the third-layer simple average ensemble method demonstrated superior performance (R² = 0.733, RMSE = 0.668 t ha⁻¹). It significantly outperformed both the second-layer ensemble methods of stacking (R² = 0.668, RMSE = 0.673 t ha⁻¹) and feature-weighted (R² = 0.667, RMSE = 0.674 t ha⁻¹), thereby exhibiting superior predictive capabilities. This finding highlighted the third-layer ensemble method’s ability to enhance predictive capabilities and refined the accuracy of wheat yield prediction through simple average ensemble learning, offering a novel perspective for crop yield prediction and breeding selection.

The number of wheat ears is an essential indicator for wheat production and yield estimation, but accurately obtaining wheat ears requires expensive manual cost and labor time. Meanwhile, the characteristics of wheat ears provide less information, and the color is consistent with the background, which can be challenging to obtain the number of wheat ears required. In this paper, the performance of Faster regions with convolutional neural networks (Faster R-CNN) and RetinaNet to predict the number of wheat ears for wheat at different growth stages under different conditions is investigated. The results show that using the Global WHEAT dataset for recognition, the RetinaNet method, and the Faster R-CNN method achieve an average accuracy of 0.82 and 0.72, with the RetinaNet method obtaining the highest recognition accuracy. Secondly, using the collected image data for recognition, the R² of RetinaNet and Faster R-CNN after transfer learning is 0.9722 and 0.8702, respectively, indicating that the recognition accuracy of the RetinaNet method is higher on different data sets. We also tested wheat ears at both the filling and maturity stages; our proposed method has proven to be very robust (the R² is above 90). This study provides technical support and a reference for automatic wheat ear recognition and yield estimation.

The leaf area index (LAI), commonly used as an indicator of crop growth and physiological development, is mainly influenced by the degree of water and fertilizer stress. Accurate assessment of the LAI can help to understand the state of crop water and fertilizer deficit, which is important for crop management and the precision agriculture. The objective of this study is to evaluate the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral imaging to estimate the LAI of maize under different water and fertilizer stress conditions. For this, multispectral imagery of the field was conducted at different growth stages (jointing, trumpet, silking and flowering) of maize under three water treatments and five fertilizer treatments. Subsequently, a stacking ensemble learning model was built with Gaussian process regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and cubist regression as primary learners to predict the LAI using UAV-based vegetation indices (VIs) and ground truth data. Results showed that the LAI was influenced significantly by water and fertilizer stress in both years’ experiments. Multispectral VIs were significantly correlated with maize LAI at multiple growth stages. The Pearson correlation coefficients between UAV-based VIs and ground truth LAI ranged from 0.64 to 0.89. Furthermore, the fusion of multiple stage data showed that the correlations were significantly higher between ground truth LAI and UAV-based VIs than that of single growth stage data. The ensemble learning algorithm with MLR as the secondary learner outperformed as a single machine learning algorithm with high prediction accuracy R² = 0.967 and RMSE = 0.198 in 2020, and R² = 0.897 and RMSE = 0.220 in 2021. We believe that the ensemble learning algorithm based on stacking is preferable to the single machine learning algorithm to build the LAI prediction model. This study can provide certain theoretical guidance for the rapid and precise management of water and fertilizer for large experimental fields.

Grain yield (GY) prediction for wheat based on canopy spectral reflectance can improve selection efficiency in breeding programs. Time-series spectral information from different growth stages such as flowering to maturity is considered to have high accuracy in predicting GY and combining this information from multiple growth stages could effectively improve prediction accuracy. For this, 207 wheat cultivars and breeding lines were grown in full and limited irrigation treatments, and their canopy spectral reflectance was measured at the flowering, early, middle, and late grain fill stages. The potential of temporal spectral information at multiple growth stages for GY prediction was evaluated by a new method based on stacking the multiple growth stages data. Twenty VIs derived from spectral reflectance were used as the input feature of a support vector regression (SVR) to predict GY at each growth stage. The predicted GY values at multiple growth stages were trained by multiple linear regression (MLR) to establish a second-level prediction model. Results suggested that the prediction accuracy (R²) of VIs data from single growth stages ranged from 0.60 to 0.66 and 0.35 to 0.42 in the full and limited irrigation treatments, respectively. The prediction accuracy was increased by an average of 0.06, 0.07, and 0.07 after stacking the VIs of two, three, and four growth stages, respectively, under full irrigation. Similarly, under limited irrigation, the prediction accuracy was increased by 0.03, 0.04, and 0.04 by stacking the VIs of two, three, and four growth stages, respectively. Stacking of VIs of multiple important growth stages can increase the accuracy of GY prediction and application of a stable stacking model could increase the usefulness of data obtained from different phenotyping platforms.

Accurate forecasting of crop yields holds paramount importance in guiding decision-making processes related to breeding efforts. This study focused on the application of multi-sensor data fusion and machine learning algorithms based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in wheat yield prediction. Five machine learning (ML) algorithms namely random forest (RF), partial least squares (PLS), ridge regression (RR), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (XGboost) were utilized for multi-sensor data fusion, and three ensemble methods including the second-level ensemble methods (stacking and feature-weighted) and the third-level ensemble method (simple average) for wheat yield prediction. The 270 wheat hybrids were used as planting materials under full and limited irrigation treatments. A cost-effective multi-sensor UAV platform, equipped with red–green–blue (RGB), multispectral (MS), and thermal infrared (TIR) sensors, was utilized to gather remote sensing data. The results revealed that the XGboost algorithm exhibited outstanding performance in multi-sensor data fusion, with the RGB+MS+Texture+TIR combination demonstrating the highest fusion performance (R2=0.660, RMSE= 0.754). Compared with the single ML model, the employment of three ensemble methods significantly enhanced the prediction accuracy of wheat yield. Notably, the third-layer simple average ensemble method demonstrated superior performance (R2 = 0.733, RMSE= 0.668 t ha-1). It significantly outperformed both the second-layer ensemble methods of Stacking (R2= 0.668, RMSE= 0.673 t ha-1) and feature-weighted (R2= 0.667, RMSE= 0.674 t ha-1), thereby exhibiting superior predictive capabilities. This finding demonstrated that the third-layer ensemble method not only augments the predictive ability of the model but also fine-tuned the accuracy of wheat yield prediction through the employment of simple average ensemble learning. Consequently, it offers a novel perspective for crop yield prediction and breeding selection.