The development of Arctic marine resources is currently the focus of the world’s largest oil and gas companies, which is due to the presence of significant hydrocarbon reserves. However, the decision-making process for implementing offshore oil and gas projects in the Arctic is highly uncertain and requires consideration of many factors. This study presents a comprehensive approach to evaluating the prospects of oil production on the Russian Arctic shelf. It is based on a specific methodology which involves expert forecasting methods. We analyze the current conditions and key factors and indicators, focusing on oil prices and quality of technologies that could influence the decision-making in the oil and gas company concerning Arctic offshore fields’ development. We use general scientific methods—analysis, synthesis, classification and systematization—and propose a method for assessing the prospects of Arctic projects which is based on a three-step algorithm. Together with practical tools presented in the article, it will support decision-making on the project initiation and the development of a particular field.

The development of mineral resources in the Arctic territories is one of the priorities of the state policy of Russia. This endeavor requires modern technologies, high-quality personnel, and a large number of labor resources. However, the regions of the Arctic are characterized by difficult working and living conditions, which makes them unattractive to the working population. The research objectives were to study the importance of Arctic mineral resources for the Russian economy, the Arctic mineral resource potential, and the migration attractiveness of Arctic regions. The migration processes in these locations were analyzed and modeled using a new econometric tool—complex-valued regression models. The authors assume that the attractiveness of the Arctic regions is determined by the level of their social and economic development and can be assessed using a number of indicators. A comparative analysis of four regions that are entirely in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation was carried out based on the calculation of integral indicators of the social and economic attractiveness of these territories. Forecasting migration growth using the proposed complex-valued models produced better results than simple trend extrapolation. The authors conclude that complex-valued economic models can be successfully used to forecast migration processes in the Arctic regions of Russia. Understanding and predicting migration processes in the Arctic will make it possible to develop recommendations for attracting labor resources to the region, which will contribute to the successful development of its resource potential. The methodology of this study includes desk studies, a graphical method, arithmetic calculations, correlation analysis, statistical analysis, and the methods of the complex-valued economy.

Today, the issues of sustainable development are among the most pressing ones. They are particularly relevant in the context of mineral resource development as operations in this sector always have an impact on the environment and socioeconomic development. Developing the mineral resource base of the Arctic presents a difficult task, as it requires finding a balance between the growing demand in resources and the acute climatic and geopolitical challenges. In view of both the specific features of the region and the pressure caused by various trends and challenges, ensuring the sustainable development of the Arctic’s mineral resource base is highly important. In 2022, the global landscape that consists of sustainable development trends, ESG agendas, and environmental awareness was supplemented by national import substitution policies introduced in many strategic industries, which led to an inevitable increase in demand for mineral resources. This substantiates the importance of the research goal—developing a model for the sustainable development of the Arctic’s mineral resource base that will produce quantitative results and provide key actors with reasonable recommendations for restructuring the priority areas of development.

The mining industry is a basic sector of the Russian economy. Sustainable Development Goals appear in the strategies of mining companies and are ensured, inter alia, by increasing the energy efficiency of enterprises and plants within their structure through the implementation of projects. The lack of generally accepted criteria for assessing energy efficiency determines the need to develop a methodology that would allow taking into account the contribution of the results of projects of different scales and levels of implementation to improve the energy efficiency of the mining enterprise and the company as a whole. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology for the comprehensive assessment of projects aimed at improving the energy efficiency of mining enterprises in the context of sustainable development. The research method is based on establishing a logical relationship between the goals of sustainable development, the principles of the “energy trilemma”, criteria and results of the implementation of projects aimed at improving the energy efficiency of the mining enterprise, taking into account the systematization of these projects. The authors develop a methodology for assessing projects related to the energy efficiency of mining enterprises. The methodology is based on a two-level system of criteria: the first-level criteria characterize the degree of realization of project objectives in accordance with the goals of sustainable development and the principles of the “energy trilemma”. The first-level criteria consist of the following: economic efficiency, ecological performance, reliability and safety, and flexibility. The second-level criteria characterize the economic results of the project based on the assessment of its economic efficiency. In order to provide a comprehensive economic assessment of various project outcomes, a set of indicators is proposed. The assessment of this methodology has been tested using the example of projects implemented at the mining enterprise “Albazinsky GOK” (mining and processing complex). Implementation of a comprehensive project, including the transition to a centralized power supply source, installation of a wind generator, photovoltaic installation, and energy storage system, will allow the enterprise to reduce CO₂ emissions by 100% and increase the flexibility of the enterprise’s power system by 33%. The economic effect will amount to RUB 1252.5 mln (due to savings on electricity costs). The obtained results can be used by managers of mining companies to select and assess projects aimed at improving energy efficiency.

The problem of the development of offshore oil and gas Arctic projects has risen recently due to the depletion of traditional overland oil and gas fields, as well as the discovery of significant hydrocarbon reserves in the Arctic seas and the strategic importance of the development of that zone for the Russian Federation. The decision-making process associated with the development of these projects takes place in high level of uncertainty of external environment. Consequently, existing tools and methods of forecasting the prospects of the projects are hardly applicable due to its specificity. This article presents a special approach for assessing the prospects of oil and gas offshore Arctic projects. It consists of a theoretical base, which is the newly developed TESCIMP-methodology, practical tools for implementing it, as well as a complex approach for the assessment. The research is segmented into four stages: the analysis of the factors influencing project’s prospects as well as the key pros and cons for developing it, a two-dimensional classification of specific indicators which allocates essential and stimulating ones and forecasting the prospects of the project, identification of projects’ levels which implies the selection of appropriate TESCIMP-factors. The indicators within those factors underlie practical tools of checklist and expert surveys that help evaluate the projects’ prospects. The last stage proposes a complex approach for a further assessment, which consists of three steps and based on the combination of expert surveys and statistical methods.