This study examines the connection between Bitcoin and global factors, including the VIX, the oil price, the US dollar index, the gold price, and interest rates estimated using the Federal funds rate and treasury securities rate, for forecasting analysis. Deep learning methodologies, including LSTM, GRU, CNN, and TFT, with machine learning algorithms such as XGBoost, LightGBM, and SVR, were employed to identify the optimal prediction model for the Bitcoin price. The findings indicate that the TFT model is the most successful predictive approach, with the gold price identified as the most relevant component in determining the Bitcoin price. After the gold indicator, the US dollar index was a substantial factor in the explanation of the Bitcoin price. The TFT model also included regulatory decisions and global events. It was estimated that the Bitcoin price was significantly influenced by the COVID‐19 pandemic. After that, global climate events and China mining ban strongly affected the Bitcoin price. These findings indicate that regulatory decisions and global events determine the Bitcoin price in addition to macroeconomic factors. The VAR analysis was employed as a robustness check. The results indicate that gold and oil prices have a strong negative influence on Bitcoin, particularly in the long term. The paper has significant policy implications for investors, portfolio managers, and scholars.

The increasing inconsistency in the Turkish economy gave rise to transformations necessitated by the manner of its growth and technological changes. Between 1923 and 1962, the Turkish economy was based on agricultural growth strategies, which spurred development in the manufacturing sector and caused technological change. Between 1962 and 1985, the Turkish economy developed under import substitution industrialization, with regulations based on domestic consumption growth strategies. In the early 1980s, most of the developed countries, in parallel with which Turkey had development policies, implemented strong institutional changes via deregulation policies, but Turkey could not produce the necessary configurations in accord with open and export growth economies. The period between 1985 and 2003 was a long transformational period for Turkey vying to be a stable export growth country. This slow transformation was caused by path dependency and had been based on regulations that destabilized Turkey and deepened problems remaining from previous periods. Post-2003, the Turkish economy was able to develop more consistent export growth by forced institutional changes, but its macroeconomic factors still do not show institutional complementarity.