A original strategy for optimizing the inversion of concrete dam parameters based on the multi-strategy improved Sooty Tern Optimization algorithm (MSSTOA) is proposed to address the issues of low efficiency, low accuracy, and poor optimizing performance. First, computational strategies to improve the traditional Sooty tern algorithm, such as chaos mapping to improve the initial position of the population, a new nonlinear convergence factor, the LIMIT threshold method, and Gaussian perturbation to update the optimal individual position, are adopted to enhance its algorithmic optimization seeking ability. Then, the measured and finite element data are combined to create the optimization inversion fitness function. Based on the MSSTOA, the intelligent optimization inversion model is constructed, the inversion efficiency is improved by parallel strategy, and the optimal parameter inversion is searched. The inversion strategy is validated through test functions, hypothetical arithmetic examples, and concrete dam engineering examples and compared with the inversion results of the traditional STOA and other optimization algorithms. The results show that the MSSTOA is feasible and practical, the test function optimization results and computational time are better than the STOA and other algorithms, the example inversion of the elastic modulus is more accurate than the traditional STOA calculation, and the results of the MSSSTOA inversion are reasonable in the engineering example. Compared with other algorithms, the local extremes are skipped, and the time consumption is reduced by at least 48%. The finite element hydrostatic components calculated from the inversion results are well-fitted to the statistical model with minor errors. The intelligent inversion strategy has good application in concrete dam inverse analysis.

Under the influence of global climate change, extreme weather events have become more frequent, and earth and rockfill dams often encounter unconventional working conditions such as sudden changes in reservoir water levels during operation. These abrupt changes are characterized by their strong suddenness and rapid rate of change, which can be challenging for traditional numerical analysis methods due to slow modeling and time-consuming calculations, presenting certain limitations. Therefore, an approach has been developed that integrates seepage monitoring data into the failure probability analysis and early warning methods for earth and rockfill dams. Based on the model's prediction results, dynamic safety warning indicators for the effect of single measurement points on earth and rockfill dams under sudden reservoir water level changes have been quantitatively designed. A risk probability function reflecting the relationship between the residuals of seepage monitoring effects and the risk rate has been constructed to calculate the risk rate of single measurement points for dam seepage effects. By employing the Copula function, which considers the differences and correlations in monitoring effect amounts across different parts of the dam, the single-point seepage risk rates are elevated to multi-point seepage risk rate analysis. This enables the quantification of the overall seepage risk rate of dams under sudden reservoir water level changes. Case study results show that safety model has high prediction accuracy. The joint risk rate of the dam based on the Copula function can simultaneously consider spatial correlations and individual differences among multiple measurement points, effectively reducing the interference of randomness in the calculation of single-point risk rates. This method successfully achieves the dynamic transformation of actual seepage effect measurements into risk rates, providing theoretical basis and technical support for the operational management and safety monitoring of earth and rockfill dams during emergency events.