A original strategy for optimizing the inversion of concrete dam parameters based on the multi-strategy improved Sooty Tern Optimization algorithm (MSSTOA) is proposed to address the issues of low efficiency, low accuracy, and poor optimizing performance. First, computational strategies to improve the traditional Sooty tern algorithm, such as chaos mapping to improve the initial position of the population, a new nonlinear convergence factor, the LIMIT threshold method, and Gaussian perturbation to update the optimal individual position, are adopted to enhance its algorithmic optimization seeking ability. Then, the measured and finite element data are combined to create the optimization inversion fitness function. Based on the MSSTOA, the intelligent optimization inversion model is constructed, the inversion efficiency is improved by parallel strategy, and the optimal parameter inversion is searched. The inversion strategy is validated through test functions, hypothetical arithmetic examples, and concrete dam engineering examples and compared with the inversion results of the traditional STOA and other optimization algorithms. The results show that the MSSTOA is feasible and practical, the test function optimization results and computational time are better than the STOA and other algorithms, the example inversion of the elastic modulus is more accurate than the traditional STOA calculation, and the results of the MSSSTOA inversion are reasonable in the engineering example. Compared with other algorithms, the local extremes are skipped, and the time consumption is reduced by at least 48%. The finite element hydrostatic components calculated from the inversion results are well-fitted to the statistical model with minor errors. The intelligent inversion strategy has good application in concrete dam inverse analysis.

Earth-rock dams are critical components of hydraulic engineering, undertaking core functions such as flood control and disaster mitigation. However, the potential occurrence of dam breach poses a severe threat to regional socioeconomic stability and ecological security. To address the limitations of traditional Bayesian network (BN) in capturing the complex nonlinear coupling and dynamic mutual interactions among risk factors, they are integrated with machine learning techniques, based on a collected dataset of earth-rock dam breach case samples, the PC structure learning algorithm was employed to preliminarily uncover risk associations. The dataset was compiled from public databases, including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and Dam Safety Management Center of the Ministry of Water Resources of China, as well as engineering reports from provincial water conservancy departments in China and Europe. Expert knowledge was integrated to optimize the network topology, thereby correcting causal relationships inconsistent with engineering mechanisms. The results indicate that the established hybrid model achieved AUC, accuracy, and F1-Score values of 0.887, 0.895, and 0.899, respectively, significantly outperforming the data-driven model G1. Forward inference identified the key drivers elevating breach risk. Conversely, backward inference revealed that overtopping was the direct failure mode with the highest probability of occurrence and the greatest contribution. The integration of data-driven approaches and domain knowledge provides theoretical and technical support for the probabilistic quantification of earth-rock dam breach and risk prevention and control decision-making.

Probabilistic analysis of overtopping is an important aspect of dam construction, and the uncertainty in the construction progress complicates the calculation of overtopping probabilities. Construction progress is significantly influenced by human factors, making it difficult to assign an accurate probability distribution. Although the interval non-probabilistic reliability (INPR) method can estimate the likelihood of events with unknown probability distributions, its calculation results for the overtopping probability have significant errors. To improve the rationality of the results, we developed a method that adopted flood frequency of the upstream flood level to correct the traditional INPR calculations, developing an improved model. Taking the Qianping Reservoir as an example, the overtopping probabilities for three construction schedules were calculated, and the results were compared with a flood routing calculation. The results indicated that the improved approach significantly improves the rationality of the calculations, and the results effectively reflected the impact of construction progress uncertainty on overtopping probabilities.

Under the influence of global climate change, extreme weather events have become more frequent, and earth and rockfill dams often encounter unconventional working conditions such as sudden changes in reservoir water levels during operation. These abrupt changes are characterized by their strong suddenness and rapid rate of change, which can be challenging for traditional numerical analysis methods due to slow modeling and time-consuming calculations, presenting certain limitations. Therefore, an approach has been developed that integrates seepage monitoring data into the failure probability analysis and early warning methods for earth and rockfill dams. Based on the model’s prediction results, dynamic safety warning indicators for the effect of single measurement points on earth and rockfill dams under sudden reservoir water level changes have been quantitatively designed. A risk probability function reflecting the relationship between the residuals of seepage monitoring effects and the risk rate has been constructed to calculate the risk rate of single measurement points for dam seepage effects. By employing the Copula function, which considers the differences and correlations in monitoring effect amounts across different parts of the dam, the single-point seepage risk rates are elevated to a multi-point seepage risk rate analysis. This enables the quantification of the overall seepage risk rate of dams under sudden reservoir water level changes. Case study results show that the safety model has high prediction accuracy. The joint risk rate of the dam based on the Copula function can simultaneously consider spatial correlations and individual differences among multiple measurement points, effectively reducing the interference of randomness in the calculation of single-point risk rates. This method successfully achieves the dynamic transformation of actual seepage effect measurements into risk rates, providing a theoretical basis and technical support for the operational management and safety monitoring of earth and rockfill dams during emergency events.

Under the influence of global climate change, extreme weather events have become more frequent, and earth and rockfill dams often encounter unconventional working conditions such as sudden changes in reservoir water levels during operation. These abrupt changes are characterized by their strong suddenness and rapid rate of change, which can be challenging for traditional numerical analysis methods due to slow modeling and time-consuming calculations, presenting certain limitations. Therefore, an approach has been developed that integrates seepage monitoring data into the failure probability analysis and early warning methods for earth and rockfill dams. Based on the model's prediction results, dynamic safety warning indicators for the effect of single measurement points on earth and rockfill dams under sudden reservoir water level changes have been quantitatively designed. A risk probability function reflecting the relationship between the residuals of seepage monitoring effects and the risk rate has been constructed to calculate the risk rate of single measurement points for dam seepage effects. By employing the Copula function, which considers the differences and correlations in monitoring effect amounts across different parts of the dam, the single-point seepage risk rates are elevated to multi-point seepage risk rate analysis. This enables the quantification of the overall seepage risk rate of dams under sudden reservoir water level changes. Case study results show that safety model has high prediction accuracy. The joint risk rate of the dam based on the Copula function can simultaneously consider spatial correlations and individual differences among multiple measurement points, effectively reducing the interference of randomness in the calculation of single-point risk rates. This method successfully achieves the dynamic transformation of actual seepage effect measurements into risk rates, providing theoretical basis and technical support for the operational management and safety monitoring of earth and rockfill dams during emergency events.

Taking measured data of some reservoir rainfall Caused by typical Typhoon and environment variables of typical typhoon as a sample, the nonlinear analysis method is adopted to analyze the relationship between environmental factors of typhoon (including wind speed, wind power, wind circle radius of 7 level and 10 level, central pressure, the distance between typhoon center and the reservoir area, etc.) and reservoir rainfall. Then the form of mathematical representation of typhoon environmental factors and their effects are reduced and optimized. On this basis, the nonlinear analysis model of reservoir rainfall caused by typhoon is made up. Example analysis showed that the model reflects the nonlinear relationship between typhoon environment and reservoir rainfall caused by typhoon to certain extent, and has good fitting results.