Overuse of blood cultures (BCs) in emergency departments (EDs) leads to low yields and high numbers of contaminated cultures, accompanied by increased diagnostics, antibiotic usage, prolonged hospitalization, and mortality. We aimed to simplify and validate a recently developed machine learning model to help safely withhold BC testing in low-risk patients. We extracted data from the electronic health records (EHR) for 44.123 unique ED visits with BC sampling in the Amsterdam UMC (locations VUMC and AMC; the Netherlands), Zaans Medical Center (ZMC; the Netherlands), and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC; United States) in periods between 2011 and 2021. We trained a machine learning model on the VUMC data to predict blood culture outcomes and validated it in the AMC, ZMC, and BIDMC with subsequent real-time prospective evaluation in the VUMC. The model had an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.81 (95%-CI = 0.78–0.83) in the VUMC test set. The most important predictors were temperature, creatinine, and C-reactive protein. The AUROCs in the validation cohorts were 0.80 (AMC; 0.78–0.82), 0.76 (ZMC; 0.74–0.78), and 0.75 (BIDMC; 0.74–0.76). During real-time prospective evaluation in the EHR of the VUMC, it reached an AUROC of 0.76 (0.71–0.81) among 590 patients with BC draws in the ED. The prospective evaluation showed that the model can be used to safely withhold blood culture analyses in at least 30% of patients in the ED. We developed a machine learning model to predict blood culture outcomes in the ED, which retained its performance during external validation and real-time prospective evaluation. Our model can identify patients at low risk of having a positive blood culture. Using the model in practice can significantly reduce the number of blood culture analyses and thus avoid the hidden costs of false-positive culture results. This research project was funded by the Amsterdam Public Health – Quality of Care program and the Dutch “Doen of Laten” project (project number: 839205002).

Low-dose methotrexate (MTX) is the first-line therapy in early rheumatoid arthritis (eRA). Up to 40% of eRA patients do not benefit from MTX therapy. MTX has been shown to inhibit one-carbon metabolism, which is involved in the donation of methyl groups. In this study, we investigate baseline global DNA methylation and changes in DNA methylation during treatment in relation to clinical non-response after 3 months of MTX treatment. Two hundred ninety-four blood samples were collected from the Treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort (tREACH, ISRCTN26791028), a multicenter, stratified single-blind clinical trial of eRA patients. Global DNA (hydroxy)methylation was quantified using liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS/MS) and validated with a global DNA LINE-1 methylation technique. MTX response was determined as ΔDAS28. Additionally, patients were stratified into two response groups according to the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria. Associations between global DNA methylation and response were examined using univariate regression models adjusted for baseline DAS28, baseline erythrocyte folate levels, and body mass index (BMI). Higher baseline global DNA methylation was associated with less decrease of DAS28 (β = 0.15, p = 0.013) and with MTX non-response (OR = 0.010, 95% CI = 0.001–0.188). This result was validated in LINE-1 elements (β = 0.22, p = 0.026). Changes in global DNA (hydroxy)methylation were not associated with MTX response over 3 months. These results show that higher baseline global DNA methylation in treatment naïve eRA patients is associated with decreased clinical response after 3 months of treatment of eRA patients and can be further evaluated as a predictor for MTX therapy non-response. ISRCTN, ISRCTN26791028 , registered 23 August 2007—retrospectively registered

The goals of this study were to examine whether machine-learning algorithms outperform multivariable logistic regression in the prediction of insufficient response to methotrexate (MTX); secondly, to examine which features are essential for correct prediction; and finally, to investigate whether the best performing model specifically identifies insufficient responders to MTX (combination) therapy. The prediction of insufficient response (3-month Disease Activity Score 28-Erythrocyte-sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) > 3.2) was assessed using logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The baseline features of 355 rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients from the “treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis CoHort” (tREACH) and the U-Act-Early trial were combined for analyses. The model performances were compared using area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), and sensitivity and specificity. Finally, the best performing model following feature selection was tested on 101 RA patients starting tocilizumab (TCZ)-monotherapy. Logistic regression (AUC = 0.77 95% CI: 0.68–0.86) performed as well as LASSO (AUC = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67–0.85), random forest (AUC = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61 = 0.81), and XGBoost (AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.61–0.81), yet logistic regression reached the highest sensitivity (81%). The most important features were baseline DAS28 (components). For all algorithms, models with six features performed similarly to those with 16. When applied to the TCZ-monotherapy group, logistic regression’s sensitivity significantly dropped from 83% to 69% (p = 0.03). In the current dataset, logistic regression performed equally well compared to machine-learning algorithms in the prediction of insufficient response to MTX. Models could be reduced to six features, which are more conducive for clinical implementation. Interestingly, the prediction model was specific to MTX (combination) therapy response.

Background: Epigenetic markers are often quantified and related to disease in stored samples. While, effects of storage on stability of these markers have not been thoroughly examined. In this longitudinal study, we investigated the influence of storage time, material, temperature, and freeze-thaw cycles on stability of global DNA (hydroxy)methylation. Methods: EDTA blood was collected from 90 individuals. Blood (n = 30, group 1) and extracted DNA (n = 30, group 2) were stored at 4°C, −20°C and −80°C for 0, 1 (endpoint blood 4°C), 6, 12 or 18 months. Additionally, freeze-thaw cycles of blood and DNA samples (n = 30, group 3) were performed over three days. Global DNA methylation and hydroxymethylation (mean ± SD) were quantified using liquid chromatography–electrospray ionization–tandem mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS/MS) with between-run precision of 2.8% (methylation) and 6.3% (hydroxymethylation). Effects on stability were assessed using linear mixed models. Results: global DNA methylation was stable over 18 months in blood at −20°C and −80°C and DNA at 4°C and −80°C. However, at 18 months DNA methylation from DNA stored at −20°C relatively decreased −6.1% compared to baseline. Global DNA hydroxymethylation was more stable in DNA samples compared to blood, independent of temperature (p = 0.0131). Stability of global DNA methylation and hydroxymethylation was not affected up to three freeze – thaw cycles. Conclusion: Global DNA methylation and hydroxymethylation stored as blood and DNA can be used for epigenetic studies. The relevance of small differences occuring during storage depend on the expected effect size and research question.

Context: Newborn screening (NBS) for classic congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) consists of 17-hydroxyprogesterone (17-OHP) measurement with gestational age–adjusted cutoffs. A second heel puncture (HP) is performed in newborns with inconclusive results to reduce false positives. Objective: We assessed the accuracy and turnaround time of the current CAH NBS algorithm in comparison with alternative algorithms by performing a second-tier 21-deoxycortisol (21-DF) pilot study. Methods: Dried blood spots (DBS) of newborns with inconclusive and positive 17-OHP (immunoassay) first HP results were sent from regional NBS laboratories to the Amsterdam UMC Endocrine Laboratory. In 2017-2019, 21-DF concentrations were analyzed by LC-MS/MS in parallel with routine NBS. Diagnoses were confirmed by mutation analysis. Results: A total of 328 DBS were analyzed; 37 newborns had confirmed classic CAH, 33 were false-positive and 258 were categorized as negative in the second HP following the current algorithm. With second-tier testing, all 37 confirmed CAH had elevated 21-DF, while all 33 false positives and 253/258 second-HP negatives had undetectable 21-DF. The elevated 21-DF of the other 5 newborns may be NBS false negatives or second-tier false positives. Adding the second-tier results to inconclusive first HPs reduced the number of false positives to 11 and prevented all 286 second HPs. Adding the second tier to both positive and inconclusive first HPs eliminated all false positives but delayed referral for 31 CAH patients (1-4 days). Conclusion: Application of the second-tier 21-DF measurement to inconclusive first HPs improved our CAH NBS by reducing false positives, abolishing the second HP, and thereby shortening referral time.

This study aimed to identify baseline metabolic biomarkers for response to methotrexate (MTX) therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) using an untargeted method. In total, 82 baseline plasma samples (41 insufficient responders and 41 sufficient responders to MTX) were selected from the Treatment in the Rotterdam Early Arthritis Cohort (tREACH, trial number: ISRCTN26791028) based on patients’ EULAR response at 3 months. Metabolites were assessed using high-performance liquid chromatography-quadrupole time of flight mass spectrometry. Differences in metabolite concentrations between insufficient and sufficient responders were assessed using partial least square regression discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and Welch’s t-test. The predictive performance of the most significant findings was assessed in a receiver operating characteristic plot with area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. Finally, overrepresentation analysis was performed to assess if the best discriminating metabolites were enriched in specific metabolic events. Baseline concentrations of homocystine, taurine, adenosine triphosphate, guanosine diphosphate and uric acid were significantly lower in plasma of insufficient responders versus sufficient responders, while glycolytic intermediates 1,3-/2,3-diphosphoglyceric acid, glycerol-3-phosphate and phosphoenolpyruvate were significantly higher in insufficient responders. Homocystine, glycerol-3-phosphate and 1,3-/2,3-diphosphoglyceric acid were independent predictors and together showed a high AUC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.72–0.91) for the prediction of insufficient response, with corresponding sensitivity of 0.78 and specificity of 0.76. The Warburg effect, glycolysis and amino acid metabolism were identified as underlying metabolic events playing a role in clinical response to MTX in early RA. New metabolites and potential underlying metabolic events correlating with MTX response in early RA were identified, which warrant validation in external cohorts.