Expanding populations, the impacts of climate change, availability of arable land, and availability of water for irrigation collectively strain the agricultural system. To keep pace and adapt to these challenges, food producers may adopt unsustainable practices that may ultimately intensify the strain. What is a course of technological evolution and adoption that can break this cycle? In this paper we explore a set of technologies and food production scenarios with a new, reduced-order model. First the model is developed. The model combines limitations in the sustainable water supply, agricultural productivity as a function of intensification, and rising food demands. Model inputs are derived from the literature and historical records. Monte Carlo simulation runs of the model are used to explore the potential of existing and future technologies to bring us ever closer to a more sustainable future instead of ever farther. This is the concept of a moving sustainability horizon (the year in the future where sustainability can be achieved with current technological progress if demand remains constant). The sustainability gap is the number of years between the present and the sustainability horizon. As demand increases, the sustainability horizon moves farther into the future. As technology improves and productivity increases, the sustainability horizon is closer to the present. Sustainability, therefore, is achieved when the sustainability horizon collides with the present, closing the sustainability gap to zero. We find one pathway for water management technology adoption and innovation that closes the sustainability gap within the reduced-order model’s outputs. In this scenario, micro-irrigation adoption, minimal climate change impacts, reduced food waste, and additional transformative innovations such as smart greenhouses and agrivoltaic systems are collectively needed. The model shows that, in the absence of these changes, and continuing along our current course, the productivity of the agricultural system would become insufficient in the decade following 2050.

A new Variable Rate Drip Irrigation (VRDI) emitter that monitors individual water drops was designed, built, and tested. This new emitter controllers water application directly by monitoring the volume applied in contrast to uniform drip irrigation systems that control water application indirectly by pressure compensation and operational times. Prior approaches assumed irrigation volumes based on flow rates and time and typically did not verify the applied amount of water applied at each water outlet. The new VRDI emitter self-monitors the total volume of water applied and halts the flow once the desired total water application has been achieved. This study performed a test for a new VRDI emitter design with two inner diameters of 0.11 cm and 0.12 cm and two outer diameters 0.3 cm and 0.35 cm compared to a commercial drip emitter. Laboratory tests verify that the integrated volume measurements of the VRDI system are independent of pressure. Conversely, the flow rates of the commercial pressure-compensated drip lines were not independent of pressure. These results demonstrate that this form of VRDI is technically feasible and is shown to be energy efficient, requiring lower system operating pressures than pressure-compensated lines. The VRDI system can reduce water consumption and related water costs.

Incorporating data-driven technologies into agriculture presents a promising approach to optimizing crop production, especially in regions dependent on irrigation, where escalating heat waves and droughts driven by climate change pose increasing challenges. Recent advancements in sensor technology have introduced diverse methods for assessing irrigation needs, including meteorological sensors for calculating reference evapotranspiration, belowground sensors for measuring plant available water, and plant sensors for direct water status measurements. Among these, infrared thermometry stands out as a non-destructive remote sensing method for monitoring transpiration, with significant potential for integration into drone- or satellite-based models. This study applies infrared thermometry to develop a crop water stress index (CWSI) model for European hazelnuts (Corylus avellana), a key crop in Oregon, the leading hazelnut-producing state in the United States. Utilizing low-cost, open-source infrared thermometers and data loggers, we aim to provide hazelnut farmers with a practical tool for improving irrigation efficiency and enhancing yields. The CWSI model was validated against plant water status metrics such as stem water potential and gas exchange measurements. Our results show that when stem water potential is below −6 bar, the CWSI remains under 0.2, indicating low plant stress, with corresponding leaf conductance rates ranging between 0.1 and 0.4 mol m² s⁻¹. Additionally, un-irrigated hazelnuts were stressed (CWSI > 0.2) from mid-July through the end of the season, while irrigated plants remained unstressed. The findings suggest that farmers can adopt a leaf conductance threshold of 0.2 mol m² s⁻¹ or a water potential threshold of −6 bar for irrigation management. This research introduces a new CWSI model for hazelnuts and highlights the potential of low-cost technology to improve agricultural monitoring and decision-making.

This research presents a new variable rate drip irrigation (VRDI) emitter design that can monitor individual water drops. Conventional drip systems cannot monitor the individual water flow rate per emitter. Application uniformity for conventional drip emitters can be decreased by clogged emitters, irregular emitter orifices, and decreases in pressure. A VRDI emitter can overcome the irrigation challenges in the field by increasing water application uniformity for each plant and reducing water losses. Flow rate is affected by the diameter of the delivery pipe and the pressure of the irrigation delivery system. This study compares the volumetric water flow rate for conventional drip emitters and new VRDI emitters with variable diameters inner (1 mm, 1.2 mm, 1.4 mm, and 1.6 mm) and outside (3 mm, 3.5 mm, 4 mm, and 4.5 mm) with three pressures (34 kPa, 69 kPa, and 103 kPa). The tests revealed that the new VRDI emitter had flow rates that increased as the operating pressure increased similar to a conventional drip tube. The flow rate was slightly increased in the VRDI with pressure, but even this increase did not show large changes in the flow rate. The flow rate of the conventional drip tube was 88% larger than the VRDI emitter for all pressures (p < 0.05). However, operating pressure did not affect the drop sizes at the VRDI emitter, but the generalized linear mixed models (GLM) results show that volume per drop was impacted by the outside diameter of the VRDI outlet (p < 0.05). The interaction between the inner and outside diameter was also significant at p < 0.01, and the interaction between outside diameter and pressure was statistically significant at p < 0.01. The electronic components used to control our VRDI emitter are readily compatible with off-the-shelf data telemetry solutions; thus, each emitter could be controlled remotely and relay data to a centralized data repository or decision-maker, and a plurality of these emitters could be used to enable full-field scale VRDI.