Emission inventories are important for modeling studies and policy-making, but the traditional “bottom-up” emission inventories are often outdated with a time lag, mainly due to the lack of accurate and timely statistics. In this study, we developed a “top-down” approach to optimize the emission inventory of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) system. The observed hourly surface SO₂ concentrations from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center were assimilated and used to estimate the gridded concentration forecast errors of WRF-Chem. The concentration forecast errors were then converted to the emission errors by assuming a linear response from SO₂ emission to concentration by grids. To eliminate the effects of modelling errors from aspects other than emissions, a strict data-screening process was conducted. Using the Multi-Resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC) 2010 as the a priori emission, the emission inventory for October 2015 over Mainland China was optimized. Two forecast experiments were conducted to evaluate the performance of the SO₂ forecast by using the a priori (control experiment) and optimized emissions (optimized emission experiment). The results showed that the forecasts with optimized emissions typically outperformed the forecasts with 2010 a priori emissions in terms of the accuracy of the spatial and temporal distributions. Compared with the control experiment, the bias and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the optimized emission experiment decreased by 71.2% and 25.9%, and the correlation coefficients increased by 50.0%. The improvements in Southern China were more significant than those in Northern China. For the Sichuan Basin, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta, the bias and RMSEs decreased by 76.4–94.2% and 29.0–45.7%, respectively, and the correlation coefficients increased by 23.5–53.4%. This SO₂ emission optimization methodology is computationally cost-effective.

Emission inventories are essential for modelling studies and pollution control, but traditional emission inventories are usually updated after a few years based on the statistics of “bottom-up” approach from the energy consumption in provinces, cities, and counties. The latest emission inventories of multi-resolution emission inventory in China (MEIC) was compiled from the statistics for the year 2016 (MEIC_2016). However, the real emissions have varied yearly, due to national pollution control policies and accidental special events, such as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, a four-dimensional variational assimilation (4DVAR) system based on the “top-down” approach was developed to optimise sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions by assimilating the data of SO₂ concentrations from surface observational stations. The 4DVAR system was then applied to obtain the SO₂ emissions during the early period of COVID-19 pandemic (from 17 January to 7 February 2020), and the same period in 2019 over China. The results showed that the average MEIC_2016, 2019, and 2020 emissions were 42.2×10⁶, 40.1×10⁶, and 36.4×10⁶ kg d⁻¹. The emissions in 2020 decreased by 9.2 % in relation to the COVID-19 lockdown compared with those in 2019. For central China, where the lockdown measures were quite strict, the mean 2020 emission decreased by 21.0 % compared with 2019 emissions. Three forecast experiments were conducted using the emissions of MEIC_2016, 2019, and 2020 to demonstrate the effects of optimised emissions. The root mean square error (RMSE) in the experiments using 2019 and 2020 emissions decreased by 28.1 % and 50.7 %, and the correlation coefficient increased by 89.5 % and 205.9 % compared with the experiment using MEIC_2016. For central China, the average RMSE in the experiments with 2019 and 2020 emissions decreased by 48.8 % and 77.0 %, and the average correlation coefficient increased by 44.3 % and 238.7 %, compared with the experiment using MEIC_2016 emissions. The results demonstrated that the 4DVAR system effectively optimised emissions to describe the actual changes in SO₂ emissions related to the COVID lockdown, and it can thus be used to improve the accuracy of forecasts.

Queueing applications are often complicated by dependence among interarrival times and service times. Such dependence is common in networks of queues, where arrivals are departures from other queues or superpositions of such complicated processes, especially when there are multiple customer classes with class-dependent service-time distributions. We show that the robust queueing approach for single-server queues proposed in the literature can be extended to yield improved steady-state performance approximations in the standard stochastic setting that includes dependence among interarrival times and service times. We propose a new functional robust queueing formulation for the steady-state workload that is exact for the steady-state mean in the M/GI/1 model and is asymptotically correct in both heavy traffic and light traffic. Simulation experiments show that it is effective more generally. The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1649 .

The natural queueing models for many operations research applications have time-varying arrival rates. In addition, the natural models often are not Markov stochastic processes, so that they are not amenable to exact mathematical analysis. In “Time-Varying Robust Queueing,” Ward Whitt and Wei You propose a time-varying robust queueing algorithm to approximate the time-varying distribution of the workload (virtual waiting time) in a non-Markovian single-server queue with a time-varying arrival-rate function. They apply simulation and asymptotic methods to examine the performance of periodic robust queueing. They show that periodic robust queueing converges to a proper limit in appropriate long-cycle and heavy-traffic regimes and coincides with long-cycle fluid limits and heavy-traffic diffusion limits for long cycles. Simulation examples show that the mean and the full distribution (specified by the quantiles) of the periodic steady-state workload are remarkably well approximated.

This paper presents a three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation (DA) system for aerosol optical properties, including aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals and lidar-based aerosol profiles, developed for the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. For computational efficiency, 32 model variables in the MOSAIC_4bin scheme are lumped into 20 aerosol state variables that are representative of mass concentrations in the DA system. To directly assimilate aerosol optical properties, an observation operator based on the Mie scattering theory was employed, which was obtained by simplifying the optical module in WRF-Chem. The tangent linear (TL) and adjoint (AD) operators were then established and passed the TL/AD sensitivity test. The Himawari-8 derived AOT data were assimilated to validate the system and investigate the effects of assimilation on both AOT and PM_2.5 simulations. Two comparative experiments were performed with a cycle of 24 h from 23 to 29 November 2018, during which a heavy air pollution event occurred in northern China. The DA performances of the model simulation were evaluated against independent aerosol observations, including the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOT and surface PM_2.5 measurements. The results show that Himawari-8 AOT assimilation can significantly improve model AOT analyses and forecasts. Generally, the control experiments without assimilation seriously underestimated AOTs compared with observed values and were therefore unable to describe real aerosol pollution. The analysis fields closer to observations improved AOT simulations, indicating that the system successfully assimilated AOT observations into the model. In terms of statistical metrics, assimilating Himawari-8 AOTs only limitedly improved PM_2.5 analyses in the inner simulation domain (D02); however, the positive effect can last for over 24 h. Assimilation effectively enlarged the underestimated PM_2.5 concentrations to be closer to the real distribution in northern China, which is of great value for studying heavy air pollution events.