Extreme rainfall and high tide levels are the main causal factors of urban flood disasters in coastal areas. As complex interactions between these factors can exacerbate the impact of urban flood disasters in coastal areas, an associated flood risk assessment involves not only the estimation of the extreme values of each variable but also their probability of occurring simultaneously. With a consideration of the Shenzhen River Basin (China), this study used bivariate copula functions to quantitatively evaluate the joint risk of extreme rainfall and a high tide level. The results showed that a significant positive correlation exists between extreme rainfall and the corresponding high tide level, and that if the positive dependency was ignored, the probability of simultaneous extreme events would be underestimated. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which heavy rainfall and high tide level events occur concurrently, the “AND” joint return period based on the annual maxima method should be adopted. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which either only a heavy rainfall or a high tide level event occurs, the “OR” joint return period should be adopted. The results represent a theoretical basis and decision-making support for flood risk management and flood prevention/reduction in coastal areas.
In this study, a comprehensive assessment on precipitation estimation from the latest Version 06 release of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) algorithm is conducted by using 24 rain gauge observations at daily scale from 2001 to 2016. The IMERG V06 dataset fuses Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data (2000–2015) and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite data (2014–present), enabling the use of IMERG data for long-term study. Correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), relative bias (RB), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and critical success index (CSI) were used to assess the accuracy of satellite-derived precipitation estimation and measure the correspondence between satellite-derived and observed occurrence of precipitation events. The probability density distributions of precipitation intensity and influence of elevation on precipitation estimation were also examined. Results showed that, with high CC and low RMSE and RB, the IMERG Final Run product (IMERG-F) performs better than two other IMERG products at daily, monthly, and yearly scales. At daily scale, the ability of satellite products to detect general precipitation is clearly superior to the ability to detect heavy and extreme precipitation. In addition, CC and RMSE of IMERG products are high in Southeastern Jinan City, while RMSE is relatively low in Southwestern Jinan City. Considering the fact that the IMERG estimation of extreme precipitation indices showed an acceptable level of accuracy, IMERG products can be used to derive extreme precipitation indices in areas without gauged data. At all elevations, IMERG-F exhibits a better performance than the other two IMERG products. However, POD and FAR decrease and CSI increase with the increase of elevation, indicating the need for improvement. This study will provide valuable information for the application of IMERG products at the scale of a large city.