The prediction of power grid engineering cost is the basis of fine management of power grid engineering, and accurate prediction of substation engineering cost can effectively ensure the fine operation of engineering funds. With the continuous expansion of the engineering system, the influencing factors and data dimensions of substation project investment are gradually diversified and complex, which further increases the uncertainty and complexity of substation project cost. Based on the concept of substation engineering data space, this paper investigates the influencing factors and constructs the static total investment intelligent prediction model of substation engineering. The emerging swarm intelligence algorithm, sparrow search algorithm (SSA), is used to optimize the parameters of the BP neural network to improve the prediction accuracy and convergence speed of neural network. In order to test the validity of the model, an example analysis is carried out based on the data of a provincial substation project. It was found that the SSA-BP can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and provide new methods and approaches for practical application and research.
Starting from the perspective of the uncertainty of supply and demand, using the Copula function and fuzzy numbers a scenario generation method, considering the uncertainty of scenery, and a random fuzzy model of energy demand uncertainty are proposed. Then, through the energy flow direction and the energy supply, production, conversion, storage, and demand, a multi-objective model considering the economic and environmental protection of a park is constructed. Here, the park refers to a microgrid that gathers distributed energy such as wind and photovoltaics and has requirements for cooling, heat, and electricity at the same time. Next, combining the constraints of each link, the particle swarm algorithm is used to solve the model. Finally, an example is analyzed in a certain park. The results of the example show that, on the one hand, the proposed scenario generation method and fuzzy number method can reduce the uncertainty of supply and demand, effectively fitting the wind and photovoltaic output and various energy demands. On the other hand, considering the economy and environmental protection of the park at the same time, the configuration of energy storage equipment can not only improve the economy of the park, but also promote the consumption of renewable energy.
The volatility of a new energy output leads to bidding bias when participating in the power market competition. A pumped storage power station is an ideal method of stabilizing new energy volatility. Therefore, wind power suppliers and pumped storage power stations first form wind storage joint ventures to participate in power market competition. At the same time, middlemen are introduced, constructing an upper-level game model (considering power producers and wind storage joint ventures) that forms equilibrium results of bidding competition in the wholesale and power distribution markets. Based on the equilibrium result of the upper-level model, a lower model is constructed to distribute the profits from wind storage joint ventures. The profits of each wind storage joint venture, wind power supplier, and pumped storage power station are obtained by the Nash negotiation and the Shapely value method. Finally, a case study is conducted. The results show that the wind storage joint ventures can improve the economics of the system. Further, the middlemen can smooth the rapid fluctuation of power price in the distribution and wholesale market, maintaining a smooth and efficient operation of the electricity market. These findings provide information for the design of an electricity market competition mechanism and the promotion of new energy power generation.
1 November 2020 in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Aiming at the characteristics of saturation load forecasting with strong uncertainty and greater time correlation, and comprehensively considering the relevant factors that affect the saturation load level, this paper establishes a multi-factor saturation load forecasting model based on long-short term memory neural networks. Firstly, the judgment basis of saturated load state is determined according to the related factors of foreign developed regions; then, based on the Logistic curve model, the socio-economic factors affecting the saturated load level are predicted as the input of the network model; finally, based on the historical social and economic development data and electricity consumption data of Hebei Province, the future social and economic development of Hebei Province is divided into four different scenarios, and the long-short term memory neural network model is used to predict, respectively discuss the time and scale of Hebei Province entering the saturation load level under different scenarios, and provide reference and suggestions for the future power planning of Hebei Province.