Tong Chen

Mr. Tong Chen

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

11Years (2016-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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19 January 2016 in Energies
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
GSGuoqiang Sun
Guoqiang Sun
TCTong Chen
Tong Chen
ZWZhinong Wei
Zhinong Wei
Yonghui SunYonghui Sun
Yonghui Sun
Haixiang ZangHaixiang Zang
Haixiang Zang
Sheng ChenSheng Chen
Sheng Chen
Accurate forecasting of carbon price is important and fundamental for anticipating the changing trends of the energy market, and, thus, to provide a valid reference for establishing power industry policy. However, carbon price forecasting is complicated owing to the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of carbon prices. In this paper, a combined forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and spiking neural networks (SNNs) is proposed. An original carbon price series is firstly decomposed into a series of relatively stable components through VMD to simplify the interference and coupling across characteristic information of different scales in the data. Then, a SNN forecasting model is built for each component, and the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is used to determine the input variables for each SNN model. The final forecasting result for the original carbon price can be obtained by aggregating the forecasting results of all the components. Actual InterContinental Exchange (ICE) carbon price data is used for simulation, and comprehensive evaluation criteria are proposed for quantitative error evaluation. Simulation results and analysis suggest that the proposed VMD-SNN forecasting model outperforms conventional models in terms of forecasting accuracy and reliability.