International audienceWhile global sea level has risen by 20 cm since the mid-19th century, the role of this process in present-day and past shoreline mobility is still debated. In this paper, we review previous studies that explored the relations between sea-level rise and shoreline changes over the last few decades. Existing methods can be classified into two groups: (1) approaches based on the analysis of trends and variability in shoreline change observations, which investigate whether a correlation with the temporal or spatial patterns sea level changes can be established; and (2) approaches based on the comparison of shoreline observations with a coastal model outcome, which attempt to evaluate the contribution of sea-level rise to shoreline mobility using coastal evolution modeling tools. The existing applications of these methods face two common difficulties: first, shoreline data are often lacking or insufficiently resolved temporally to capture the dynamics of coastlines; and second, relative sea level along the coast is generally only known in a limited number of areas where tide gauges are available. These two challenges can be met, owing to the increasing amount of shoreline change observations and complementary geodetic techniques. The wide range of different interpretations regarding the role of sea-level rise in recent shoreline changes highlights the necessity to conduct specific studies that rely on local observations and models applicable in the local geomorphological context

Assessing coastal vulnerability to climate change at regional scales is now mandatory in France since the adoption of recent laws to support adaptation to climate change. However, there is presently no commonly recognised method to assess accurately how sea level rise will modify coastal processes in the coming decades. Therefore, many assessments of the physical component of coastal vulnerability are presently based on a combined use of data (e.g. digital elevation models, historical shoreline and coastal geomorphology datasets), simple models and expert opinion. In this study, we assess the applicability and usefulness of a multi-criteria decision-mapping method (the analytical hierarchy process, AHP) to map physical coastal vulnerability to erosion and flooding in a structured way. We apply the method in two regions of France: the coastal zones of Languedoc-Roussillon (north-western Mediterranean, France) and the island of La Réunion (south-western Indian Ocean), notably using the regional geological maps. As expected, the results show not only the greater vulnerability of sand spits, estuaries and low-lying areas near to coastal lagoons in both regions, but also that of a thin strip of erodible cliffs exposed to waves in La Réunion. Despite gaps in knowledge and data, the method is found to provide a flexible and transportable framework to represent and aggregate existing knowledge and to support long-term coastal zone planning through the integration of such studies into existing adaptation schemes.

Yates, M.L.; Le Cozannet, G.; Garcin, M.; Salai, E., and Walker, P., 2013. Multidecadal atoll shoreline change on Manihi and Manuae, French Polynesia. As interest in the impact of sea-level rise on atoll islands increases, this study contributes to the growing database of observations of shoreline changes on South Pacific Islands, where few observations are currently available. Historical aerial photographs and recent satellite images were used to evaluate multidecadal surface area and shoreline changes on two atolls in French Polynesia: Manihi and Manuae. During the 40- to 50-year study period, atoll island surface area primarily increased or remained stable on Manihi and decreased on Manuae. Distinct ocean and lagoon shoreline changes were observed in different geographical regions of each atoll. On Manihi, ocean shoreline accretion rates were larger on the NW rim than the SE rim. On Manuae, atoll islands on the NE rim were eroding on the lagoon side and accreting on the ocean side, whereas isl... RÉSUMÉ Une analyse de la mobilité du trait de côte au cours des cinquantaines dernières années a été réalisée sur deux atolls de Polynésie Franaise (Pacifique Sud): Manihi (Nord-ouest de l'archipel des Tuamotus) et Manuae (Est de l'archipel des îles de la Société). La mobilité de la limite de végétation permanente a été extraite de photographies aériennes anciennes de 1955 ou 1961 et d'images satellites à haute résolution acquises dans les années 2000. Cette analyse a nécessité le géoréférencement des photographies aériennes puis la digitalisation des limites successives de la végétation permanente. La ligne de végétation permanente a été utilisée comme marqueur des mouvements de basse fréquence du trait de côte (i.e., échelles de temps pluri-décennales). En effet, elle demeure aisément identifiable aussi bien sur les images anciennes que récentes tout en s'émancipant des variations à haute fréquence (marée, surcote etc.) et des difficultés de pointage de certains marqueurs sur les photographies anciennes...

Delta margins are subject to relatively high rates of land subsidence and have the potential to significantly exacerbate future changes in sea levels predicted by global warming models used in impact studies. Through a combined analysis of GPS and persistent scatterer interferometry data, we determine that most of the coastline of Alexandria has been subject to moderate land subsidence over the past decade (0.4 mm/yr on average and up to 2 mm/yr locally). This contrasts to previous studies that suggested subsidence in excess of 3 mm/yr. Based on our findings, we infer that on multi‐century to millennia timescales, land subsidence in the area of Alexandria is dominated by tectonic setting and earthquakes or gravitational collapse episodes of a growth fault, whereas on shorter interseismic decadal to century timescales, subsidence rates are likely steady and moderate, in agreement with natural compaction and dewatering of the observed Holocene sediment layer.

The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.