The knowledge of extreme coastal water levels is useful for coastal flooding studies or the design of coastal defences. While deriving such extremes with standard analyses using tide-gauge measurements, one often needs to deal with limited effective duration of observation which can result in large statistical uncertainties. This is even truer when one faces the issue of outliers, those particularly extreme values distant from the others which increase the uncertainty on the results. In this study, we investigate how historical information, even partial, of past events reported in archives can reduce statistical uncertainties and relativise such outlying observations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method is developed to tackle this issue. We apply this method to the site of La Rochelle (France), where the storm Xynthia in 2010 generated a water level considered so far as an outlier. Based on 30 years of tide-gauge measurements and 8 historical events, the analysis shows that (1) integrating historical information in the analysis greatly reduces statistical uncertainties on return levels (2) Xynthia's water level no longer appears as an outlier, (3) we could have reasonably predicted the annual exceedance probability of that level beforehand (predictive probability for 2010 based on data until the end of 2009 of the same order of magnitude as the standard estimative probability using data until the end of 2010). Such results illustrate the usefulness of historical information in extreme value analyses of coastal water levels, as well as the relevance of the proposed method to integrate heterogeneous data in such analyses.

A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard characteristics are dramatically changed with an evolution of the overtopping ∕ overflowing process ratio and an increase of a factor 4.84 in volumes of water propagating inland and 3.47 in flooded surfaces.

En préalable à l’engagement 74 du Grenelle de la mer « développer une méthodologie et une stratégie nationale pour la gestion du trait de côte, pour le recul stratégique et la défense contre la mer […] », une synthèse des travaux menés sur l’observation du trait de côte en France métropolitaine et dans les DOM a été réalisée par le BRGM à la demande du MEEDDM. Les conclusions de cette étude insistent sur la très forte hétérogénéité des observatoires allant du suivi ponctuel et limité dans l’espace, à des suivis pérennes régionaux impliquant de nombreux acteurs. Ces différents cas de figure permettent d’établir une typologie en quatre classes des différents types d’observatoire. Ce travail insiste également sur la diversité des maîtres d’oeuvre en charge de ces « observatoires », ayant pour conséquence une hétérogénéité des méthodes et des protocoles d’acquisition des données. De ce fait, la comparaison des informations d’un observatoire à l’autre n’est pas toujours aisée. De même, les diverses modalités de stockage de cette information indiquent que d’un opérateur à l’autre, l’interopérabilité des métadonnées reste faible. Comme le montre l’étude de cas qui est traitée en fin d’article (l’Observatoire du Domaine Côtier de l’IUEM), la mise aux normes des données acquises suivant la directive européenne INSPIRE, accompagnée d’une meilleure structuration et d’une pérennisation des suivis, apparaissent nécessaire. Cela favoriserait les possibilités d’échange et permettrait d’obtenir une vision claire de l’évolution du trait de côte en France métropolitaine et dans les départements d’Outre-mer sur le long terme.

Garcin, M., Baills. A., Le Cozannet, G., Bulteau, T., Auboin, A-L., Sauter, J., 2013. Pluri-decadal impact of mining activities on coastline mobility of estuaries of New Caledonia (South Pacific) This work aims at analysing the relative impact of sedimentary supply by rivers versus the effect of sea level rise and other processes over the last 5 decades of some representative coastal stretches of New Caledonia (South Pacific Ocean). The study of twelve coastal estuarine stretches has shown erosion rates ranging from −1.8m/y to accretion rates up to 5.5m/y over the last 50 years. During this time, the climate component of sea level rise has been evaluated around 0.5mm/y in Nouméa and can be considered identical on the studied island. Vertical movements affecting New Caledonia are suspected to be different between western and eastern parts of the island. Nevertheless, in areas with homogeneous vertical movement, the coastal stretches studied show various evolution rates. The analysis of accreting e...