Cheeses are traditional products widely consumed throughout the world that have been frequently implicated in foodborne outbreaks. Predictive microbiology models are relevant tools to estimate microbial behavior in these products. The objective of this study was to conduct a review on the available modeling approaches developed in cheeses, and to identify the main microbial targets of concern and the factors affecting microbial behavior in these products. Listeria monocytogenes has been identified as the main hazard evaluated in modelling studies. The pH, a_w, lactic acid concentration and temperature have been the main factors contemplated as independent variables in models. Other aspects such as the use of raw or pasteurized milk, starter cultures, and factors inherent to the contaminating pathogen have also been evaluated. In general, depending on the production process, storage conditions, and physicochemical characteristics, microorganisms can grow or die-off in cheeses. The classical two-step modeling has been the most common approach performed to develop predictive models. Other modeling approaches, including microbial interaction, growth boundary, response surface methodology, and neural networks, have also been performed. Validated models have been integrated into user-friendly software tools to be used to obtain estimates of microbial behavior in a quick and easy manner. Future studies should investigate the fate of other target bacterial pathogens, such as spore-forming bacteria, and the dynamic character of the production process of cheeses, among other aspects. The information compiled in this study helps to deepen the knowledge on the predictive microbiology field in the context of cheese production and storage.

A harmonised microbiological survey was performed in two artisanal factories of raw goat milk cheeses (A and B) located in the Andalusian region (Spain). A total of 165 different control points or samples (raw materials, final products, food-contact surfaces [FCS], and air) were examined as microbial and pathogen sources of contamination of artisanal goat raw milk cheeses. For raw milk samples analysed from both producers, the concentrations of aerobic-mesophilic bacteria (AMB), total coliforms, coagulase-positive Staphylococcus spp. (CPS), lactic-acid bacteria (LAB) and moulds and yeasts ranged between 3.48 and 8.59, 2.45-5.48, 3.42-4.81, 4.99-8.59 and 3.35-6.85 log cfu/mL respectively. For the same microbial groups, the analysis of raw milk cheeses revealed concentrations ranging from 7.82 to 8.88, 2.00-6.82, 2.00-5.28, 8.11-9.57 and 2.00-5.76 log cfu/g, respectively. Although the raw material analysed from producer A presented higher microbial loads and between-batch variability, it was B the producer with the most loaded final products. Regarding the microbial air quality, the fermentation area, storage room, milk reception and packaging room were the most AMB loaded places, while the ripening chamber was the area with higher fungal loads in bioareosol from both producers. Conveyor belts, cutting machine, storage boxes and brine tank were highlighted as the most contaminated FCS evaluated. Staphylococcus aureus was the only pathogen detected within the set of 51 isolates from samples as revealed by MALDI-TOF and molecular PCR, with a prevalence of 12.5% for samples from the producer B. The public health risk attributed to the consumption of artisanal goat cheese should not be neglected, and may consider the whole cheesemaking processing chain, from microbiological quality of raw milk to the ready-to-eat final product, especially concerning the presence of S. aureus.