State-of-the-art climate models project a substantial decline in precipitation for the Mediterranean region in the future¹. Supporting this notion, several studies based on observed precipitation data spanning recent decades have suggested a decrease in Mediterranean precipitation^2,3,4, with some attributing a large fraction of this change to anthropogenic influences^3,5. Conversely, certain researchers have underlined that Mediterranean precipitation exhibits considerable spatiotemporal variability driven by atmospheric circulation patterns^6,7 maintaining stationarity over the long term^8,9. These conflicting perspectives underscore the need for a comprehensive assessment of precipitation changes in this region, given the profound social, economic and environmental implications. Here we show that Mediterranean precipitation has largely remained stationary from 1871 to 2020, albeit with significant multi-decadal and interannual variability. This conclusion is based on the most comprehensive dataset available for the region, encompassing over 23,000 stations across 27 countries. While trends can be identified for some periods and subregions, our findings attribute these trends primarily to atmospheric dynamics, which would be mostly linked to internal variability. Furthermore, our assessment reconciles the observed precipitation trends with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations, neither of which indicate a prevailing past precipitation trend in the region. The implications of our results extend to environmental, agricultural and water resources planning in one of the world’s prominent climate change hotspots¹⁰.

Four burned area tools were implemented in Google Earth Engine (GEE), to obtain regular processes related to burned area (BA) mapping, using medium spatial resolution sensors (Landsat and Sentinel-2). The four tools are (i) the BA Cartography tool for supervised burned area over the user-selected extent and period, (ii) two tools implementing a BA stratified random sampling to select the scenes and dates for validation, and (iii) the BA Reference Perimeter tool to obtain highly accurate BA maps that focus on validating coarser BA products. Burned Area Mapping Tools (BAMTs) go beyond the previously implemented Burned Area Mapping Software (BAMS) because of GEE parallel processing capabilities and preloaded geospatial datasets. BAMT also allows temporal image composites to be exploited in order to obtain BA maps over a larger extent and longer temporal periods. The tools consist of four scripts executable from the GEE Code Editor. The tools’ performance was discussed in two case studies: in the 2019/2020 fire season in Southeast Australia, where the BA cartography detected more than 50,000 km², using Landsat data with commission and omission errors below 12% when compared to Sentinel-2 imagery; and in the 2018 summer wildfires in Canada, where it was found that around 16,000 km² had burned.

Droughts negatively impact forests by reducing growth and increasing defoliation leading to forest dieback as the climate becomes warmer and drier. However, the timing and severity of droughts determine how differently or intensively water shortage affects primary (shoot and leaf formation) and secondary growth (stem radial growth based on tree-ring widths). We compare the impact of two severe droughts (2005, 2012), showing different climatic characteristics on the growth responses of three Mediterranean holm oak stands in northeastern Spain. We also quantify climate trends and drought severity. Then, we use remote sensing data to infer how those droughts impacted forest productivity. Both droughts were characterized by warm and dry spring conditions leading to reduced budburst, low shoot production, asynchrony in primary growth and decreased productivity and scarce radial growth, particularly in 2005. However, defoliation peaked in 2012 when radial growth showed minimum values and early spring and late summer temperatures reached maximum values. We discuss how uncoupled and resilient are the responses of primary and secondary growth to drought. Finally, these findings are used to gain insight into the drought-related drivers of defoliation in Spanish holm oak forests.

Over the past 2 decades, several global burned area products have been produced and released to the public. However, the accuracy assessment of such products largely depends on the availability of reliable reference data that currently do not exist on a global scale or whose production require a high level of dedication of project resources. The important lack of reference data for the validation of burned area products is addressed in this paper. We provide the Burned Area Reference Database (BARD), the first publicly available database created by compiling existing reference BA (burned area) datasets from different international projects. BARD contains a total of 2661 reference files derived from Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery. All those files have been checked for internal quality and are freely provided by the authors. To ensure database consistency, all files were transformed to a common format and were properly documented by following metadata standards. The goal of generating this database was to give BA algorithm developers and product testers reference information that would help them to develop or validate new BA products. BARD is freely available at https://doi.org/10.21950/BBQQU7 (Franquesa et al., 2020).

This article presents the burned area (BA) product of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Commission. This product, named C3SBA10, is based on the adaptation to Sentinel-3 OLCI images of a BA algorithm developed within the Fire Climate Change Initiative (FireCCI) project, which used MODIS data. We first reviewed the adaptation process and then analysed the results of both products for common years (2017–2019). Comparisons were performed using four different grid sizes (0.05°, 0.10°, 0.25°, and 0.50°). Annual correlations between the two products ranged from 0.94 to 0.99. Global BA estimates were found to be more similar when the two Sentinel-3 satellites were active (2019), as the temporal resolution was closer to that of the MODIS sensor. Global validation was performed using reference data derived from Landsat-8 images, following a stratified random sampling design. The C3SBA10 showed commission errors between 16 and 21% and omission errors from 48 to 50%, similar to those found in the FireCCI product. The temporal reporting accuracy was also validated using 19 million active fires. In total, 87% of the detections were made within 10 days after the fire by both products. The high consistency between both products ensures global BA data provision from 2001 to the present. The datasets are freely available through the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) repository.