The use of spatially explicit fire spread models to assess fire propagation and behaviour has several applications for fire management and research. We used the FARSITE simulator to predict the spread of a set of wildfires that occurred along an east–west gradient of the Euro-Mediterranean countries. The main purpose of this work was to evaluate the overall accuracy of the simulator and to quantify the effects of standard vs custom fuel models on fire simulation performance. We also analysed the effects of different fuel models and slope classes on the accuracy of FARSITE predictions. To run the simulations, several input layers describing each study area were acquired, and their effect on simulation outputs was analysed. Site-specific fuel models and canopy inputs were derived either from existing vegetation information and field sampling or through remote-sensing data. The custom fuel models produced an increase in simulation accuracy, and results were nearly unequivocal for all the case studies examined. We suggest that spatially explicit fire spread simulators and custom fuel models specifically developed for the heterogeneous landscapes of Mediterranean ecosystems can help improve fire hazard mapping and optimise fuel management practices across the Euro-Mediterranean region.

Tree species can differ in their responses to resource availability during the critical phase of establishment, which could influence forest dynamics. In Mediterranean forests, most of the attention has focused on the effects of shade and summer drought on seedling survival, but little is known about the effect of autumn to spring rains on earlier stages of recruitment. A sowing experiment was set up along natural light and water gradients with three co-occurring oak species ( Quercus suber L. (cork oak), Quercus canariensis Willd. (Algerian oak), and Quercus pyrenaica Willd. (Pyrenean oak)) that show limited natural regeneration in southern Spain. Recruitment stages were monitored for 1 year. Models of seed germination, seedling emergence, and seedling survival as well as of overall recruitment patterns were developed as functions of light, soil moisture, and soil compaction. The influence of intraspecific variation in seed mass and emergence time were also tested. Excess soil water levels during the winter reduced germination and emergence and lengthened time to emergence (in waterlogged open areas), which in turn decreased seedling survival during the dry season. Seedlings from larger seeds were more likely to germinate and emerge. The results suggest that temporal and spatial variability of soil water content, mediated by emergence time and seed size, play a crucial role in the regeneration dynamics of Mediterranean oak forests.

Understanding how fire weather danger indices changed in the past and how such changes affected forest fire activity is important in a changing climate. We used the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), calculated from two reanalysis data sets, ERA-40 and ERA Interim, to examine the temporal variation of forest fire danger in Europe in 1960–2012. Additionally, we used national forest fire statistics from Greece, Spain and Finland to examine the relationship between fire danger and fires. There is no obvious trend in fire danger for the time period covered by ERA-40 (1960–1999), whereas for the period 1980–2012 covered by ERA Interim, the mean FWI shows an increasing trend for southern and eastern Europe which is significant at the 99% confidence level. The cross correlations calculated at the national level in Greece, Spain and Finland between total area burned and mean FWI of the current season is of the order of 0.6, demonstrating the extent to which the current fire-season weather can explain forest fires. To summarize, fire risk is multifaceted, and while climate is a major determinant, other factors can contribute to it, either positively or negatively.